{"id":14374,"date":"2016-04-23T09:01:26","date_gmt":"2016-04-23T09:01:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/airforcetimes\/uncategorized\/2016\/04\/23\/this-is-what-general-mattis-gets-wrong-about-iran\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T05:03:29","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T05:03:29","slug":"this-is-what-general-mattis-gets-wrong-about-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/airforcetimes\/opinion\/2016\/04\/23\/this-is-what-general-mattis-gets-wrong-about-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"This is what General Mattis gets wrong about Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Editor’s note:\u00a0<\/strong>The following is an opinion piece. The writer is not employed by Military Times and the views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Military Times or its editorial staff.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a speech Friday at\u00a0the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)<\/span>, a Washington, D.C., based T<\/span>think T<\/span>tank that provides analysis and solutions to geopolitical challenges<\/span>, retired Marine\u00a0Corps\u00a0Gen.eral<\/span>\u00a0James Mattis characterized Iran as the greatest threat in the Middle East region, <\/span>and disparaged the nuclear agreement signed by the U.S. and Iran \u00a0between Iran and the U.S. <\/span>this fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the speech, Mattis described\u00a0listed a laundry list of issues that characterized <\/span>Iran as a rogue state bent on upending order in the Middle East. His evidence:\u00a0the Middle East order to include <\/span>Iran\u2019s support for\u00a0involvement in supporting <\/span>the Assad regime in Syria; its backing\u00a0support <\/span>of Shia militias and death squads, from Yemen to Iraq; the \u00a0and its <\/span>continuation of its ballistic missile program, and\u00a0its shore-based anti-ship missile defense strategy and anti-ship\/shore defense strategy <\/span>in the Gulf. At face value, these events surely paint Iran in negative light, portraying Iran as <\/span>a rogue actor sowing chaos in an effort to flex its muscles in the regiona regional muscle<\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

What Mattis gets wrong about Iran is that it\u00a0Iran <\/span>is a reactionary regional player attempting to deal with the balance a <\/span>massive power vacuum created by left over not only in the wake of <\/span>the U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq, as well as the but the <\/span>rebalancing reorganizing <\/span>of U.S. national strategic interests toward\u00a0as <\/span>the Asia-Pacific region as it\u00a0begins to <\/span>takes center stage for American foreign P<\/span>policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is overly simplistic to paint Iran as the main antagonist in the Middle East. The more complex picture involves the interests and politics of other regional players in the Middle East<\/span>, such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Iran must\u00a0has to <\/span>react to and balance the interests of all key players involved in the region. The subsequent power vacuum following the U.S. withdrawal has forced the big three \u2014\u00a0Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran \u2014\u00a0to reorganize their foreign policy and interests in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

Iran\u2019s support of proxy agents<\/a> in Yemen and Syria are a reaction to Saudi Arabia\u2019s support of Sunni non-state actors all throughout the region., from Syria to Yemen, and<\/span> America\u2019s seemingly<\/span> disinterest in the region only fuels Iran\u2019s need to react and intervene in these issues<\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. is simply not interested in checking Iran\u2019s involvement in Syria and Yemen beyond public condemnation and threats of sanctions. A ground invasion ofinto<\/span> Syria would only embolden Iran to prop up Shia proxy militias, to include Hezbollah, and create another decade\u2019<\/span>s long quagmire for the U.S. \u00a0In Yemen, the Houthi rebels, supported by Iran, are also <\/span>currently battling Al –<\/span>Qaie<\/span>da in the Arabian Pp<\/span>eninsula. At times, interests between Iran and the U.S. intersect, allowing the U.S. to limit its involvement militarily and allowing it to focus on the re-emerging great power conflict between the U.S. and <\/span>with China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simply put, the Obama Doctrine<\/a>, as it pertains to the Middle East, simply put- is <\/span>forcesing<\/span> the three regional powers Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran <\/span>to figure out a path toward\u00a0solving their own problems without requiring threats of U.S. military action. That current strategy has forced the big three to begin acting unilaterally in the sphere of foreign policy, such as Turkey\u2019s war against the Kurds<\/a> in northern Syria, Saudi Arabia\u2019s execution of Shiite cleric Nimr–<\/span>A<\/span>al-Nimr<\/a>, which that<\/span> antagonized Iran, and Iran and Saudi Arabia\u2019s use of proxy militias<\/a> around the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

The Middle East is certainly at an inflection point, but so is Iran, despite Mattis\u2019 insistence that Iran is not changing. The recent elections<\/a> in Iran represented witnessed <\/span>a windfall for reformists in the Iranian parliament, and a victory for former President Rafsanjani and current President Rouhani, in the Assembly of Experts, – <\/span>the C<\/span>council that selects the next Supreme Leader of Iran. The elections have highlighted that Rouhani\u2019s engagement with the West was popular amongst<\/span> Iranians and the current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, despite negative headlines in the Iranian press that are designed for domestic consumption and to appeaseing<\/span> hardliners in Iran<\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the 2009 Green Movement<\/a> in Iran, the Iranian regime has chartedred<\/span> a course for reform in,<\/span> an attempt to stave off a <\/span>collapse of the regime. This new course has seen the election of a reformist candidate, President Rouhani, and the first real tangible victory for a reformist candidate- the nuclear accord with the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the title S<\/span>supreme L<\/span>leader, Khamenei must operate within a political realitiesy<\/span> and balance the interests of key stakeholders. For much of Iran\u2019s history since the 1979 revolution, hardliners \u2014\u00a0with support of Iran\u2019s intelligence apparatus, the Basij<\/a>, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps<\/a> \u2014\u00a0(IRGC), <\/span>have maintained a firm grip on power, interjecting themselves into every facet of Iranian life, from business<\/a> to education<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That grip on power has slowly been evaporating sinceafter<\/span> the 2009 protests uprising <\/span>against the election of former president Ahmadinejad. Reformist candidates have slowly <\/span>been rising in the ranks and are attempting to change the system to include more privatization<\/a> in the Iranian economy and to loosen the Revolutionary Guard’s power <\/span>hold on powerby the IRGC<\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The changing tides<\/span> in Iran have not been without incident, however; as the <\/span>power has begun begins <\/span>to shift in Iranian domestic politics, the Revolutionary Guard \u00a0the IRGC <\/span>has lashed out in an attempt to embarrass Khamenei and the reformist movement. The capture of 10 U.S. Navy S<\/span>sailors<\/a> was one such attempt by the IRGC, an organization that at times operates independent of the Iranian government due to\u00a0as a result of <\/span>their role as “defenders of the revolution.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Mattis gets wrong about Iran is that Iran is changing internally and has been since 2009. The parallel military\/ intelligence structures, which hold varying political allegiances, between the Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS)<\/span> and the Revolutionary Guard,IRGC<\/span> complicate the true nature of Iran\u2019s domestic and foreign policy agenda. It is hard to distinguish in from <\/span>Iranian headlines what is designed for domestic consumption and what is Iran\u2019s true position on a particular issuepolicy front<\/span>. Mattis simply aggregates everything to paint athe<\/span> negative picture that supports his neo-conservative viewpoint on military intervention in the Middle East.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shawn\u00a0Snow\u00a0is a veteran of the U.S. Marine Corps and a graduate of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, specializing in Central and Southwest Asia. He served 10 years as a signals intelligence analyst and completed multiple tours of duty to Iraq and Afghanistan. The opinions expressed are his own.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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