{"id":16265,"date":"2020-11-27T23:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-11-27T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/airforcetimes\/uncategorized\/2020\/11\/27\/the-war-with-china-as-i-saw-it\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T20:25:28","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T20:25:28","slug":"the-war-with-china-as-i-saw-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/airforcetimes\/opinion\/commentary\/2020\/11\/27\/the-war-with-china-as-i-saw-it\/","title":{"rendered":"The war with China, as I saw it"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ten years ago, as China\u2019s rise accelerated, I sounded out several fellow authors of informed military fiction, proposing that we collaborate on a World War Three-style series about a new Pacific conflict. I would handle the action at sea, they the land, air, and space aspects. I thought such a series might serve as a warning, in the same way fiction had alerted us in advance of previous dangers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They begged off, one saying there was zero possibility of such hostilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unconvinced of that, I proceeded to craft \u201cThe War With China\u201d on my own. This six-book series was published by St. Martins\/Macmillan. It recounts how a near-future war might unfold, on land, at sea, in the air, in space, cyberspace, and on the all-important home front.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today, a decade later, the likelihood of such a conflict is the topic of everyday discussion and, no doubt, of detailed planning. Force structures, acquisition, and training are all being hastily revised against just such a contingency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I lay no claim to clairvoyance. But I\u2019ve spent many years researching how such a conflict might evolve. I had my scenario development and defense analytical experience to call on, but based everything on open-source materials, buttressed by historical studies. I was also helped by dozens of serving and retired military members, both junior and very senior, who contributed ideas and vetted my drafts.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/militarytimes\/news\/your-military\/2020\/09\/02\/what-war-with-china-could-look-like\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/635774999538290744-mar-2015-dawn-blitz-5jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">What war with China could look like<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">A host of scenarios could push China and the United States into some kind of conflict.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To begin with, I assumed such a war would start much as all America\u2019s wars have: with surprise, unreadiness, and disaster. The United States would blunder into it, preoccupied with domestic discord, over-generaled, under-resourced, and equipped for the last war, not a new one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The first book recounted the transition from tense peace to the heat of battle. \u201cTipping Point\u201d began with a terror attack retriggering conflict between India and Pakistan. When it escalated to a tactical nuclear exchange, China intervened to prevent Pakistan\u2019s defeat, while the United backed India.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a replay of 1914, nation after nation was sucked in. The U.S., Vietnam, and India lined up against China, Pakistan, and Iran, along with various puppet states created as China rampaged through Asia. Japan, Europe, and the Philippines chose the sidelines, while Russia sold energy and weapons to both sides. The surprised and destabilized Allies were blinded by a takedown of satellite and surveillance assets, sending them reeling back on all fronts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the second volume, \u201cOnslaught,\u201d China lashed out again. Directed by a seemingly omniscient strategic AI named Jade Emperor, an explosive offensive overwhelmed Allied forces. The first Pacific island chain was conquered. American and Korean forces crumpled as Chinese troops fought their way across the strait to invade and conquer Taiwan. Cyberattacks and other sabotage crippled the United States\u2019 ability to regenerate forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In \u201cHunter Killer,\u201d my central protagonist, Daniel V. Lenson, commanded an antisubmarine task force, fighting marauding enemy wolf packs in the central Pacific. Meanwhile, the Allies, including ground forces from Vietnam and Indonesia, advanced in the South China Sea. That counteroffensive, a CIA-supported revolt in Xinjiang, and a raid on North China derailed the Opposed Powers\u2019 plans for a second wave of expansion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In \u201cDeep War\u201d both antagonists traded body blows. The U.S. government cracked down on separatism and revolt. The insurgency in western China grew into an incipient revolution. Japan joined the Allies, and the ground campaign began with an invasion of North Korea and a landing in Taiwan. The invisible battle in cyberspace between the two opposing AIs, Jade Emperor and the U.S. Battle Eagle, reached a climax.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The fifth novel, \u201cOverthrow,\u201d detailed the titanic final campaigns, with an Allied thrust into Hainan and Hong Kong and a massive Chinese riposte as both antagonists strove to finish the war without a massive nuclear exchange.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The final volume will be released this November. \u201cViolent Peace\u201d depicts the aftershocks of battle as China and the United States, both deeply wounded, struggle with revolt, famine, and disease. At the same time, new actors \u2014 Indonesia, Vietnam, a newly united Federated Republic of China, Russia, and a rightward-lurching Germany \u2014 compete for the spoils, commencing a new rivalry for regional and world hegemony.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The many lessons I\u2019ve taken away from a decade of research and thought are set forth in the books themselves. If I were forced to summarize them, I\u2019d say we\u2019ll probably stumble into war through miscalculation or foolhardiness, rather than intent on either side. When hostilities begin, we\u2019ll lose many early battles, for a simple reason \u2014 no enemy will attack unless what Machiavelli calls \u201cthe distempers of a State\u201d signal weakness. It will take years to rebuild our industrial and military infrastructure, which has decayed to near irrelevance. Allies will be essential to our effort. Though, as we saw in 1860 and 1914 and 1939, wars tend to spiral out of control, sucking all the belligerents down into mutual destruction. At the end of that spiral lies the ultimate horror. No one yet knows how a war between two nuclear powers could be brought to an end short of a central strategic exchange.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">My overall impression, as this long project nears its completion, is that if the U.S. and China should go to war, raw staying power may count far more toward final victory than whatever force is in being at the commencement of hostilities. Weapons will swiftly become outmoded, if history is any guide. Technology will make astonishing leaps. Tactics and strategy will advance under forced draft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Therefore, if I have any takeaways to impart, perhaps we should be paying more attention to:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022 Growing smart diplomats as well as smart generals<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022 Revitalizing our defense industrial base with commercial-sector prime contractors<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022 Integrating civilian science and technology, rather than segregating defense from the rest of our economy<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022 Developing rapid prototyping and acquisition, using digital twinning and decentralized manufacturing<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022 Cementing strong relationships with traditional coalition partners, and attracting new allies through trade agreements, development and military assistance, and other mechanisms of multinational cooperation<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022 Reconstituting a robust civil defense program (perhaps under FEMA, to enhance resilience against natural disasters as well)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022 Cyberproofing domestic transport, communications, and energy infrastructure<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022 And finally, preparing a larger portion of our youth to serve through universal military training and universal health coverage, while making the military more inclusive and attractive as a career.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u2019ll admit to enjoying the long process of imagining and writing this series. If the books serve as nothing more than entertainment, I\u2019ll be satisfied.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And if they\u2019re taken as a warning? Well then, so much the better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i>Capt. David Poyer\u2019s military career included service in the Atlantic, Mediterranean, Arctic, Caribbean, Middle East, Pacific, and the Pentagon. He holds a bachelor\u2019s in naval engineering from the Naval Academy and a master\u2019s in defense analysis from George Washington. His novels are available in St. Martin\u2019s Press hardcover, trade paper, ebook, and audiobook formats. Poyer\u2019s work has been required reading in the Literature of the Sea course at the U.S. Naval Academy, along with that of Joseph Conrad and Herman Melville. He currently teaches in the MA\/MFA writing program at Wilkes University, and lives in Virginia with fellow writer Lenore Hart. More at <\/i><a href=\"http:\/\/www.poyer.com\/\" target=_blank><i>www.poyer.com<\/i><\/a><i>.<\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i>Editor\u2019s note: This is an Op-Ed and as such, the opinions expressed are those of the author. If you would like to respond, or have an editorial of your own you would like to submit, please contact Military Times managing editor Howard Altman,&nbsp;<\/i><a href=\"mailto:haltman@militarytimes.com\"><i>haltman@militarytimes.com<\/i><\/a><i>.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this commentary, the author of a six-book military fiction series on a World War Three-style conflict in the Pacific discusses how such a clash might 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