{"id":16420,"date":"2018-11-01T17:14:26","date_gmt":"2018-11-01T17:14:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/airforcetimes\/uncategorized\/2018\/11\/01\/this-is-not-going-to-be-won-militarily-top-us-commander-in-afghanistan-reveals-pessimism\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T20:24:08","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T20:24:08","slug":"this-is-not-going-to-be-won-militarily-top-us-commander-in-afghanistan-reveals-pessimism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/airforcetimes\/flashpoints\/2018\/11\/01\/this-is-not-going-to-be-won-militarily-top-us-commander-in-afghanistan-reveals-pessimism\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018This is not going to be won militarily\u2019: Top US commander in Afghanistan reveals pessimism"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The new U.S. general leading the mission in Afghanistan gave a surprisingly candid interview this week on the situation in-country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In his first interview since taking command of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/news\/your-air-force\/2018\/10\/22\/service-member-killed-in-suspected-insider-attack-in-afghanistan\/\" target=_blank>NATO\u2019s Resolute Support<\/a> mission in September, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/flashpoints\/2018\/09\/02\/us-general-assumes-nato-command-in-afghanistan\/\" target=_blank>Army Gen. Austin Miller\u2019s<\/a> thoughts seem to mirror the pessimism felt by the American people as the war in Afghanistan treads past the 17-year mark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThis is not going to be won militarily,\u201d Miller told <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/news\/military\/new-u-s-commander-afghanistan-says-he-s-going-offense-n926431\" target=\"_blank\">NBC News in an exclusive interview<\/a>. \u201cThis is going to a political solution.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cMy assessment is the Taliban also realizes they cannot win militarily,\u201d he said. &#8220;So if you realize you can\u2019t win militarily at some point, fighting is just, people start asking why. So you do not necessarily wait us out, but I think now is the time to start working through the political piece of this conflict.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Miller\u2019s comments reflect several realities portrayed in the latest report from the leading U.S. government oversight agency on Afghanistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As of July, the Afghan government controls or influences only 55.5 percent of the country\u2019s 407 districts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That is the lowest level since the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, or SIGAR, began tracking district control in November 2015, according to the group\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sigar.mil\/pdf\/quarterlyreports\/2018-10-30qr.pdf\" target=_blank>quarterly report <\/a>released Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although the exact numbers are classified, Resolute Support also said that the average number of Afghan government force casualties from May to October 2018 is the highest it has ever been during similar periods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">May was the most active month, accounting for 26 percent of all casualties during this five-month period. About 52 percent of the casualties during this time came during checkpoint operations, while 35 percent occurred during patrols.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">SIGAR reported that the number of checkpoint casualties is increasing while the number of patrol casualties is decreasing.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/militarytimes\/news\/your-military\/2018\/08\/22\/trump-strategy-is-working-departing-general-in-afghanistan-says\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"193\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/nicholson-2.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Trump strategy is working, departing general in Afghanistan says<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">Thousands of additional U.S. forces, new authorities and recent ceasefires give hope, general says.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The somewhat good news is that the Afghan government\u2019s control over the total population in-country remains unchanged since this time last year at 65 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Roughly 12 percent of Afghanistan\u2019s districts are now reportedly under insurgent control or influence, according to SIGAR.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">About 32.4 percent of Afghan districts are contested \u2014 which means they are neither controlled by the Afghan government or the insurgency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since SIGAR began receiving district control data in November 2015, Afghan government control and influence over its districts has declined by about 16 percent; contested districts have increased by about 11 percent; and insurgent control or influence has risen by 5.5 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe control of Afghanistan\u2019s districts, population, and territory overall became more contested this quarter, with both the Afghan government and the insurgency losing districts and land area under their control or influence,\u201d SIGAR officials wrote in their report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1447\" height=\"756\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Capture11.JPG.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-34832\" srcset=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Capture11.JPG.jpg 1447w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Capture11.JPG.jpg?resize=300,157 300w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Capture11.JPG.jpg?resize=768,401 768w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Capture11.JPG.jpg?resize=1024,535 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1447px) 100vw, 1447px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">(Resolute Support)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When Miller took over the war in early September, Afghan soldiers were already being killed and wounded at record numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Miller told NBC News that he kicked off his tenure by pushing out a more aggressive policy of helping the Afghan military locate and defeat Taliban fighters. But in that new interview, Miller also acknowledged that Afghanistan requires a political, not military, solution to its woes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Miller also narrowly escaped a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/news\/your-air-force\/2018\/10\/18\/top-us-commander-in-afghanistan-unharmed-after-attack-that-left-key-afghan-general-dead-2-americans-wounded\/\" target=_blank>Taliban attack<\/a> unharmed on Oct. 18 in Kandahar city during a meeting with Kandahar\u2019s governor. The Taliban had managed to turn one of the governor\u2019s bodyguards to their side, who then initiated an insider attack at the conclusion of the meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/militarytimes\/news\/your-military\/2018\/10\/30\/5-freed-from-gitmo-in-exchange-for-bergdahl-join-insurgents-in-qatar-taliban-says\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/taliban-5.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">5 freed from Gitmo in exchange for Bergdahl join Taliban\u2019s political office in Qatar<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">They may complicate efforts toward peace talks with Taliban, some analysts say.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A key U.S.-backed Afghan warlord in the country\u2019s volatile southern region, Kandahar police chief Gen. Abdul Raziq, was killed in the attack. Raziq was arguably the most important power broker in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brig. Gen. Jeffrey Smiley, the U.S. general in charge of Resolute Support\u2019s advising mission in southern Afghanistan, and another unidentified civilian were also wounded in the attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1323\" height=\"601\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Capture13.JPG.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-34842\" srcset=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Capture13.JPG.jpg 1323w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Capture13.JPG.jpg?resize=300,136 300w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Capture13.JPG.jpg?resize=768,349 768w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Capture13.JPG.jpg?resize=1024,465 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1323px) 100vw, 1323px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">(Resolute Support)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Afghanistan\u2019s summer fighting season was also marked by a notable loss for Afghanistan\u2019s elite Commando units, who were routed in their <a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/news\/your-air-force\/2018\/08\/13\/us-air-force-armys-101st-airborne-division-called-in-to-help-defend-major-afghan-city\/\" target=_blank>defense of Ghazni <\/a>city, less than 100 miles from Afghanistan\u2019s capital of Kabul, from a Taliban offensive in August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although the Commandos eventually rallied to retake the city with the help of U.S. special operations forces, the fact that such an elite unit was overrun and reportedly took a high rate of casualties may indicate fatigue and overuse among its troops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The cumulative funds allocated for reconstruction and related activities in Afghanistan since fiscal 2002 totals roughly $132 billion, according to SIGAR.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/militarytimes\/news\/your-military\/2018\/11\/01\/afghan-ex-president-karzai-welcomes-gitmo-5-into-peace-talks-sees-post-war-role-for-taliban\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"157\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP18305364100877.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Afghan ex-president Karzai welcomes Gitmo 5 into peace talks, sees post-war role for Taliban<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">Karzai: 5 Taliban leaders freed from prison in exchange for U.S. Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl are \u201cgood Afghans\u201d who deserve role in peace negotiations.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S.-backed Afghan government&#8217;s control over territory is slipping, according to a new report.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":34830,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":13,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":{"2":{"categories":["your-military","news","left-column","home","middle-column","flashpoints"],"primary_category":"your-military"},"5":{"categories":["your-army","news","daily-news-roundup","newsletters","left-column","home","middle-column","flashpoints"],"primary_category":"flashpoints"},"6":{"categories":["your-marine-corps","news","daily-news-roundup","newsletters","middle-column","home","flashpoints","left-column"],"primary_category":"flashpoints"},"7":{"categories":["your-navy","news","daily-news-roundup","newsletters","middle-column","home","flashpoints"],"primary_category":"daily-news-roundup"}}},"categories":[101,13,24,88,89,16,26,67],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3277],"class_list":["post-16420","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news-roundup","category-flashpoints","category-home","category-left-column","category-middle-column","category-news","category-newsletters","category-your-air-force"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"LQ3NK45H2ZDDVLG235KIV3GVEA","arc_canonical_url":"\/news\/your-air-force\/2018\/11\/01\/this-is-not-going-to-be-won-militarily-top-us-commander-in-afghanistan-reveals-pessimism\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented 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