{"id":17558,"date":"2019-08-19T15:53:38","date_gmt":"2019-08-19T15:53:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/airforcetimes\/uncategorized\/2019\/08\/19\/china-grown-strong-enough-for-a-surprise-move-in-the-indo-pacific-think-tank-warns\/"},"modified":"2026-08-18T20:55:35","modified_gmt":"2026-08-18T20:55:35","slug":"china-grown-strong-enough-for-a-surprise-move-in-the-indo-pacific-think-tank-warns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/airforcetimes\/flashpoints\/2019\/08\/19\/china-grown-strong-enough-for-a-surprise-move-in-the-indo-pacific-think-tank-warns\/","title":{"rendered":"China now strong enough for a surprise move in the Indo-Pacific"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">MELBOURNE, Australia \u2013 China is gaining an increasingly favorable military position in the Indo-Pacific, leaving the United States no longer able to enjoy military primacy in the region, a new report by an Australian think tank has warned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Sydney-based United States Studies Centre says the region is now vulnerable to China making a quick move to secure a military or strategic advantage, with the cost of an American counter-move potentially too high to bear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In its report, analysts also lament the \u201ccombined effect of ongoing wars in the Middle East, budget austerity, underinvestment in advanced military capabilities and the scale of America\u2019s liberal order-building agenda has left the US armed forces ill-prepared for great power competition in the Indo-Pacific.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ussc.edu.au\/analysis\/averting-crisis-american-strategy-military-spending-and-collective-defence-in-the-indo-pacific\" target=\"_blank\">report<\/a>, titled, \u201cAverting crisis: American Strategy, Military Spending and Collective Defence in the Indo-Pacific,\u201d adds that over the next decade, the U.S. defense budget \u201cis unlikely to meet the needs of the National Defense Strategy owing to a combination of political, fiscal and internal pressures.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meanwhile, the regional balance of power has tilted in China\u2019s favor, which the report says is also a product of the way Beijing has modernized and postured its armed forces. Central to this is the massive investment in conventionally-armed ballistic and cruise missiles, which analysts consider the centerpiece of China\u2019s \u201ccounter-intervention\u201d efforts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This \u201cgrowing arsenal of accurate long-range missiles,\u201d some of which are able to reach the critical American air and naval bases located at the U.S. territory of Guam in the northern Marianas from mainland China, \u201cposes a major threat to almost all American, allied and partner bases, airstrips, ports and military installations in the Western Pacific.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/congress\/2019\/08\/16\/trump-oks-f-16-sale-to-taiwan-amid-china-tensions\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-51180098-Cropped.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Trump OKs F-16 sale to Taiwan amid China tensions<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">The Trump administration has informally green lit a potential major arms sale to Taiwan involving dozens of new Lockheed Martin F-16V fighter jets.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to a 2017 <a href=\"https:\/\/warontherocks.com\/2017\/02\/has-china-been-practicing-preemptive-missile-strikes-against-u-s-bases\/\" target=\"_blank\">article<\/a> by Capt. Thomas Shugart, then a senior military fellow at the Center for a New American Security, open-source satellite imagery suggests that China has been testing its ballistic missiles against mockup targets similar in layout to those found at American and allied bases in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These mockup targets range from vehicles to above-ground fuel tanks, runways, hardened aircraft shelters and moored ships, with Shugart pointing out that the latter are arranged in a \u201cnear-mirror image of the actual inner harbor at the U.S. naval base in Yokosuka.\u201d He posited that \u201cthe only way that China could realistically expect to catch multiple U.S. ships in port &#8230; would be through a surprise attack.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The risk is compounded by the fact that many of the U.S. and allied operating bases in the Indo-Pacific that are exposed to possible Chinese missile attack lack hardened infrastructure, while \u201cforward-deployed munitions and supplies are not set to wartime requirements\u201d even as \u201cAmerica\u2019s logistics capability has steeply declined.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">China\u2019s growing military might in what is known as the \u201cfirst island chain,\u201d which stretches from Japan and the Ryukyu Islands archipelago down to Taiwan and the Philippines, has now effectively been flipped, according to the think tank. That provides China \u201cwith the coercive leverage it would need to quickly seize coveted territory or overturn other aspects of the status quo by pursuing a fait accompli strategy.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This \u201canti-access, area-denial\u201d bubble that China could activate within the first island chain and beyond will mean follow-on forces coming from Hawaii and the West Coast would have to fight their way into the region, analysts wrote. And while the report says the U.S. military \u201cwould probably \u2014 but not certainly \u2014 prevail in an extended war, escalation at this point would be enormously costly and dangerous\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In response to this shifting regional balance of power, the think tank also calls for a strategy of collective defense to offset shortfalls in America\u2019s regional military power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Australia, in particular, is urged in the report to beef up its own network of regional partnerships and alliances by pursuing \u201ccapability aggregation and collective deterrence with capable regional allies and partners such as the United States and Japan, as well establishing new and expanding its existing, high-end military exercises with allies and partners to develop and demonstrate new operational concepts for Indo-Pacific contingencies.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The report also calls on Australia to rebalance its defence resources from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific, acquire robust land-based strike and denial capabilities as well as increase its own stockpiles and create sovereign capabilities in the \u201cstorage and production of precision munitions, fuel and other materiel necessary for sustained high-end conflict.&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The cost of an American counter-move may become too high, according to the Sydney-based United States Studies 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