{"id":20153,"date":"2015-08-05T19:59:49","date_gmt":"2015-08-05T19:59:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/airforcetimes\/uncategorized\/2015\/08\/05\/nuclear-upgrade-costs-700-billion-over-next-25-years-think-tank-study-estimates\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T20:30:34","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T20:30:34","slug":"nuclear-upgrade-costs-700-billion-over-next-25-years-think-tank-study-estimates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/airforcetimes\/news\/your-air-force\/2015\/08\/05\/nuclear-upgrade-costs-700-billion-over-next-25-years-think-tank-study-estimates\/","title":{"rendered":"Nuclear upgrade costs $700 billion over next 25 years, think-tank study estimates"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The U.S. will face a “bow wave” of increased costs to update its nuclear arsenal, but operating budgets could thereafter return to levels comparable to today’swhat they are presently<\/span>, according to a new study released by a Washington, D.C. think –<\/span>tank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment, in a report released Tuesday, estimates\u00a0it could cost $704 billion between 2015 and 2039 to fully update and upgrade the nation’s nuclear arsenal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although all parts of the nuclear triad need updates, the largest cost is likely to be borne by the Navy while working on a replacement for the Ohio-class nuclear submarines. The Navy’s costs could climb above $12 billion annually\u00a0<\/strong>in the late 2020s and early 2030s, Harrison said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Air Force, meanwhile, will see its greatest expense between fiscal 2029 and 2031, as costs break $4 billion a year as the service seeks to bring the next-generation Long Range Strategic Bomber online, the study estimates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Once the peak of these modernization programs is reached, funding for nuclear forces will gradually decline to roughly the level it is today (adjusting for inflation) by the late 2030s,” the report said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Pentagon currently spends about $15 billion a year maintaining the nation’s nuclear force. Both Defense Department estimates and the CSBA study expect that costs could approach $25 billion annually through the 2020s as launch systems are upgraded or overhauled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But once upgrades are completed by the 2030s, CSBA said the cost would likely settle to between $16 billion and $17 billion a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the Pentagon works to update the nation’s nuclear arsenal capabilities, the program’s cost would likely never exceed 5 percent of the entire defense budget, said\u00a0Todd Harrison, a defense budget expert at the center and the study’s lead author.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Nuclear modernization is affordable within current budget constraints if it remains a priority,” he said in prepared talking points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although all parts of the nuclear triad need updates, the largest cost is likely to be borne by the Navy while working on a replacement for the Ohio-class nuclear submarines. The Navy’s costs could climb above $12 billion in the late 2020s and early 2030s, Harrison said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Air Force, meanwhile, will see its greatest expense between fiscal 2029 and 2031, as costs break $4 billion a year as the service seeks to bring the next-generation Long Range Strategic Bomber online, the study estimates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Altogether, Harrison and his co-researcher, Evan Montgomery, estimate it could cost $704 billion between 2015 and 2039 to fully update and upgrade the nation’s nuclear arsenal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maintaining the warheads themselves and the Ohio-class sub replacement are the two most expensive components, together equaling 72 percent of the cost estimate, the report said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s an estimate not too far off what the Defense Department itself projected in a July 30 report released by the Government Accountability Office, Congress’ investigative branch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an annual report, DoD and the Energy Department expect it would cost $298.1 billion between 2014 and 2024 to upgrade nuclear weapons systems and capabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GAO called upgrading nuclear systems “a long-term, multifaceted effort that requires resource planning and commitment by both the administration and Congress.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Getting an exact accounting of nuclear costs can vary depending on what areas are looked at, Harrison said. For example, CSBA’s study did not take into account nuclear waste cleanup, possible cost reductions due to arms control treaties, and missile defense or warning systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And he noted there is often overlap between nuclear and conventional equipment, such as the upcoming Long Range Strategic Bomber being purchased by the Air Force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the nation decided to mothball its entire nuclear arsenal, “the Air Force has said it would still buy the LRSB,” Harrison said. “The primary reason the Air Force has given for buying the bomber is conventional missions.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specific nuclear costs often only represent a small portion of the cost for equipment used mainly for conventional means. Installing nuclear shielding and other considerations for a bomber, for example, usually only represents about 3 percent to 8 percent of the cost of procuring that plane, Harrison said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The U.S. will face a \u201cbow wave\u201d of increased costs at the start to update its nuclear arsenal, said a study released by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary 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