{"id":26892,"date":"2017-09-23T14:55:06","date_gmt":"2017-09-23T14:55:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/airforcetimes\/uncategorized\/2017\/09\/23\/could-north-korea-fire-nuclear-missile-over-japan\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T02:13:49","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T02:13:49","slug":"could-north-korea-fire-nuclear-missile-over-japan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/airforcetimes\/flashpoints\/2017\/09\/23\/could-north-korea-fire-nuclear-missile-over-japan\/","title":{"rendered":"Could North Korea fire nuclear missile over Japan?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

SEOUL, South Korea \u2014 Will North Korea\u2019s next nuclear test involve a thermonuclear missile screaming over Japan? That\u2019s a question being asked after North Korea\u2019s foreign minister said his country may test a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The world hasn\u2019t seen an above-ground, atmospheric nuclear test since an inland detonation by China in 1980, and North Korea upending that could push the region dangerously close to war. The room for error would be minimal, and any mistake could be disastrous. Even if successful, such a test could endanger air and sea traffic in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of that, many experts don\u2019t think North Korea would take such a risk. But they\u2019re also not ruling it out given the North\u2019s increasing number of nuclear and missile tests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason for North Korea to take that risk would be to quiet outside doubts about whether it really has a thermonuclear weapon small enough to fit on a missile, said Jeffrey Lewis, a U.S. arms control expert at the Middlebury Center of International Studies at Monterey. So far, North Korea has been separately testing nuclear weapons and the ballistic missiles built to deliver them, rather than testing them together.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho wouldn\u2019t have spoken without approval from Pyongyang\u2019s top leadership when he suggested to reporters in New York on Friday that the country could conduct an atmospheric hydrogen bomb test to fulfill the vows of the country\u2019s leader, Kim Jong Un.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kim, in an unusual direct statement to the world, pledged hours earlier to take \u201chighest-level\u201d action against the United States over President Donald Trump\u2019s threat to \u201ctotally destroy\u201d the North if provoked. Ri didn\u2019t elaborate and said no one knew what decision Kim would make.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If North Korea attempts an atmospheric nuclear test at sea, it would likely involve its most powerful ballistic missiles, such as the intermediate-range Hwasong-12 or the intercontinental-range Hwasong-14, experts say. The country lacks assets to air-drop a nuclear device, and sending a vessel out to sea to detonate a device raises the chances of getting detected and stopped by the U.S. military.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the nuclear missile to reach a remote part of the Pacific, it would have to fly over Japan, as the North did with two Hwasong-12 test launches in recent weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There have only been a handful of times when atmospheric nuclear tests involved ballistic missiles, including China\u2019s fourth nuclear test in 1966. That involved a midrange Dongfeng-2 missile being launched from a deep inland rocket facility to the Lop Nur nuclear test site in the country\u2019s far west.<\/p>\n\n\n\t