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NO INTER-KOREAN HOTLINES<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Just to communicate about talks is challenging. South Korea\u2019s Vice Defense Minister Suh Choo Suk used a televised news conference to propose the military talks, as major cross-border communication hotlines are dormant following the North\u2019s fourth nuclear test in January 2016. There is little chance North Korean officials would miss it, because they closely follow and have commented on every major previous move by Seoul regarding Pyongyang. Many analysts say it\u2019s highly unlikely that Moon\u2019s government would use any secret channel to try to realize talks. That could trigger a backlash from conservatives who argue it\u2019s time to pressure the North, rather than seek dialogue. In the past, the two Koreas sometimes resorted to behind-the-scene contacts to set up more high-profile talks. South Korean defense officials have refused to comment on whether they\u2019ve made any clandestine attempts to reach out to the North this time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
FATE OF TALKS<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite the silence, many experts say North Korea will eventually come to the military talks, because it can use them as a venue to call for a suspension of propaganda loudspeaker broadcasts that both Koreas began at the border after the North\u2019s fourth nuclear test. It\u2019s widely believed the South Korean broadcast sting more in the strictly controlled North. Professor Koh Yu-hwan at Seoul\u2019s Dongguk University said North Korea is unlikely to commit to a meeting before August, when South Korean and U.S. militaries have annual drills. \u201cIt seems North Korea will likely prolong its wait-and-see approach and observe how things shape up after the August drills,\u201d Koh said. If held, the talks would likely start with rounds of working-level meetings between colonel-level officers. And if they continue, general-grade officers would later meet to try to work out steps to reduce tensions. But they won\u2019t likely produce any major breakthrough if North Korea sticks to its demand for the end of South Korea-U.S. drills or conducts major weapons tests. The outlook for family reunion talks is more pessimistic unless North Korea stops demanding the return of a dozen women who worked for a North Korean-run restaurant in China. The North says the women were kidnapped by Seoul agents. But the North might think the talks could help pave the way for the restart of a now-stalled lucrative joint tourism project at its scenic Diamond Mountain, where most past family reunions took place, according to professor Chin Hee-gwan at South Korea\u2019s Inje University.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
PROSPECT FOR OVERALL TIES<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n
The prospects for Moon\u2019s efforts to improve ties with North Korea don\u2019t immediately appear bright. The North has higher expectations for what it can get from Moon, the first liberal leader in South Korea in about 10 years, and an elevated assessment of its own status as a nuclear weapons state. Moon will also be cautious about reaching out, because there are worries that his overture might weaken international pressure on the North. The North\u2019s state media on Thursday described Moon\u2019s overall North Korea policy as \u201cnonsense,\u201d noting that South Korea also supports U.S.-led efforts to strengthen sanctions against the North. \u201cThe current government in the South is taking an outdated confrontational stance by dancing to the beat of the United States and conservative thugs,\u201d the North\u2019s main Rodong Sinmun newspaper said in an editorial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Is North Korea agonizing? Just not interested? Something else?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":53595,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":16,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[101,13,16,26],"tags":[],"coauthors":[380,815],"class_list":["post-27127","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news-roundup","category-flashpoints","category-news","category-newsletters"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"DAT3XASBVZEGXGR7EPBNGXCUIM","arc_canonical_url":"\/news\/2017\/07\/21\/whats-behind-north-korean-silence-to-talks-offer\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"\n