{"id":73446,"date":"2023-08-18T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-18T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/airforcetimes\/uncategorized\/2023\/08\/18\/war-in-ukraine-is-a-warning-to-china-of-the-risks-in-attacking-taiwan\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T15:48:16","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T15:48:16","slug":"war-in-ukraine-is-a-warning-to-china-of-the-risks-in-attacking-taiwan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/airforcetimes\/opinion\/2023\/08\/18\/war-in-ukraine-is-a-warning-to-china-of-the-risks-in-attacking-taiwan\/","title":{"rendered":"War in Ukraine is a warning to China of the risks in attacking Taiwan"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Editor\u2019s note: This <\/i>commentary<\/i><\/a> was first published in <\/i>The Conversation<\/i><\/a>.<\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. defense strategists warn<\/a> that China may use the distraction of the war in Ukraine to launch military action against Taiwan. They believe Chinese President Xi Jinping is determined to gain control over the breakaway province \u2014 which has been beyond Beijing\u2019s control since the founding of the People\u2019s Republic of China in 1949 \u2014 before he leaves office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In response to these concerns, in July 2023, the U.S. announced a $345 million military aid package<\/a> for Taiwan. For the first time, arms are being delivered to Taiwan from U.S. stockpiles under presidential drawdown authority, which does not require congressional approval.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such fears have been heightened by the fact that China has stepped up its probes of Taiwan\u2019s defenses<\/a> over the past year. Last month saw the release of an eight-part docuseries<\/a> by state media broadcaster CCTV titled \u201cChasing Dreams\u201d about the Chinese military\u2019s readiness to attack Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But opinion remains divided<\/a> over just how likely it is that Xi will launch a military action to occupy Taiwan, and whether the war in Ukraine makes such action more or less likely<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Factors making war more likely<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The main argument that the war in Ukraine makes a Chinese attack on Taiwan more likely centers on the failure of the threat of U.S. sanctions<\/a> to deter Russia from invading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian President Vladimir Putin believed that U.S. power, weakened by the Trump presidency<\/a>, was in decline<\/a>. He also knew \u2014 because President Joe Biden said so<\/a> \u2014 that the U.S. was unwilling to commit its own troops in combat against the nuclear-armed foe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin saw<\/a> the hasty American withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 as a sign that the U.S. has lost its appetite for military intervention overseas. The U.S. relies on economic sanctions to pressure adversaries such as Iran, Russia and China. But Putin was confident that Europe\u2019s dependence on Russian oil and gas would prevent it from imposing serious sanctions on Russia. He was also emboldened by the lackluster Western response to Russia\u2019s invasion of Georgia in 2008<\/a> and annexation of Crimea in 2014<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It turned out that Putin was wrong<\/a> about Europeans\u2019 unwillingness to stop buying Russian energy. But he was right about the U.S. aversion to committing its own forces to defend Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As with Ukraine, U.S. policy regarding Taiwan is built around using the threat of economic sanctions<\/a> to deter China from attacking the province. However, there is also the possibility \u2014 absent in Ukraine \u2014 that the U.S. would commit its forces to defend Taiwan. The official U.S. policy is one of \u201cstrategic ambiguity<\/a>\u201d on Taiwan. Furthermore, there is the simple geographical fact that Taiwan is an island, and thus easier to defend than Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the people of Taiwan, Putin\u2019s invasion shows that an authoritarian leader can wage war at any time, for no good reason. Ukraine has so far managed to prevent a Russian victory, but it is paying a heavy price in terms of lost lives<\/a> and a shattered economy<\/a>. According to some Taiwanese observers<\/a>, the people of Taiwan would be unwilling to pay such a heavy price to preserve its political autonomy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is also the concern that the U.S. is so tied up with the Ukraine crisis that it does not have the political bandwidth to deal with Chinese pressure on Taiwan. Arms that could have been sold to Taiwan have been sent to Ukraine<\/a>. Xi may see this as an opportunity that he can exploit<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Factors that make war less likely<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

There are, however, several factors that make conflict over Taiwan less probable. Russia\u2019s failure to achieve victory in Ukraine makes it less likely that Xi would gamble on the use of military force to occupy Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Wall Street Journal\u2019s Yaroslav Trofimov argues<\/a> that \u201cthe Ukrainian war has focused minds in Beijing on the inherent unpredictability of a military conflict.\u201d Meanwhile, Bi-khim Hsiao, Taiwan\u2019s representative in the U.S., has said that Ukraine\u2019s success in defending itself will deter China<\/a> from attacking Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One reason is advances in weaponry. The latest generation of drones and missiles capable of destroying aircraft, ships and tanks favors the defense<\/a>. This makes invasion of Taiwan more risky for China. Moreover, Russia\u2019s weapons seem to be generally less effective<\/a> than those of its NATO counterparts \u2014 and China\u2019s arsenal relies heavily on Russian designs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also, the Ukraine war has unified European allies<\/a> behind U.S. leadership. In 2019, French President Emanuel Macron was talking about NATO being \u201cbrain dead<\/a>.\u201d After Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, the alliance stepped up defense spending<\/a> and both Sweden and Finland<\/a> applied for membership. Finland officially joined NATO in April 2023 while Sweden awaits final ratification.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Union was previously reluctant<\/a> to join the U.S. trade war with China. However, China\u2019s support for Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine has made Brussels more willing to join the U.S. in pushing back against China\u2019s efforts to dominate key sectors of global trade. EU Commission President Ursula van der Leyen said<\/a> in March 2023 that \u201cChina is becoming more repressive at home and more assertive abroad.\u201d China is all too aware that overstepping in Taiwan would further unite nations in a trade war against Beijing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Ukraine war has also unified core Asian allies behind U.S. leadership. Taiwan, Japan and South Korea joined the sanctions<\/a> on Russia, and Japan plans to increase defense spending by 60%<\/a> by 2027. In March 2022, Russia added Taiwan<\/a> to its Unfriendly Countries and Territories List, and in August 2022 Taiwan canceled visa-free travel<\/a> for Russians, which had been introduced in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is difficult to assess how sanctions on Russia affect China\u2019s decision calculus. The sanctions have seriously hurt<\/a> Russia\u2019s economy, but have not prevented the country from waging the war. Given China\u2019s high level of trade with Europe and the U.S., it is likely that sanctions leveled in retaliation for an attack on Taiwan would be severely damaging for the Chinese economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In launching the abortive war on Ukraine, Russia has shown itself to be weak and unstable, and therefore less useful as an ally to China. Besides the initial failure to take Kyiv, developments such as the Wagner mutiny<\/a> illustrate the fragility of the Putin regime and must have rung alarm bells in Beijing<\/a>. In November 2022, Xi called for an end to threats to use nuclear weapons<\/a> in an implicit rebuke to Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The peace plan that China released in February 2023, \u201cPosition on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis<\/a>,\u201d insisted on the importance of respecting sovereignty while ignoring Russia\u2019s violation of Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty. It was arguably more about Taiwan than Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China seemingly wants to see an end to the Ukraine war, but on terms acceptable to its ally, Moscow. China has accepted Russia\u2019s narrative that NATO is to blame for the war, but still pays lip service to the importance of respecting Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Those principles are central to the \u201cOne China\u201d policy<\/a> and Beijing\u2019s claim to sovereignty over Taiwan. China\u2019s failure to condemn the Russian invasion puts it in a position that is riven with contradictions and makes it hard to play a role as a broker for peace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is no simple answer to the question of how the war in Ukraine has impacted Beijing\u2019s intentions regarding Taiwan. But it has starkly illustrated to all sides that the stakes are high, and the costs of miscalculation are punitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prof. Peter Rutland<\/i><\/a> has taught at Wesleyan since 1989. Before that he taught at the University of Texas at Austin, and at the University of York and London University in the UK. He has a BA from Oxford and a D. Phil from York. He has also been a visiting professor at Columbia University, and is an associate of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University.<\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Have an opinion?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This article is an Op-Ed and as such, the opinions expressed are those of the author. If you would like to respond, or have an editorial of your own you would like to submit, please <\/i>email us<\/i><\/a>. Want more perspectives like this sent straight to you? <\/i>Subscribe to get our Commentary & Opinion newsletter<\/i><\/a> once a week.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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