{"id":75701,"date":"2024-10-08T18:57:22","date_gmt":"2024-10-08T18:57:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/airforcetimes\/uncategorized\/2024\/10\/08\/with-us-military-support-israel-shifts-middle-east-power-balance\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T16:06:22","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T16:06:22","slug":"with-us-military-support-israel-shifts-middle-east-power-balance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/airforcetimes\/flashpoints\/2024\/10\/08\/with-us-military-support-israel-shifts-middle-east-power-balance\/","title":{"rendered":"With US military support, Israel shifts Middle East power balance"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">WASHINGTON \u2014 Israeli military strikes are <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/mideast-wars-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas-6-october-2024-0210e9d539a899e21ee89b52807b6af7\">targeting Iran\u2019s armed allies<\/a> across a nearly 2,000-mile stretch of the Middle East and threatening Iran itself. The efforts raise the possibility of an end to two decades of Iranian ascendancy in the region, to which <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/iraq-invasion-war-timeline-saddam-hussein-50828061c98e410063753045179bdcfb\">the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq<\/a> inadvertently gave rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Washington, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, and Arab capitals, opponents and supporters of Israel&#8217;s offensive are offering clashing ideas about what the U.S. should do next, as its ally racks up tactical <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-nasrallah-ground-operation-c14b6079a847fde6f7f9ce148ea55053\">successes against Hezbollah in Lebanon<\/a> and the Houthis in Yemen and presses its <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/israel-hamas-war-hezbollah-lebanon-anniversary-73916b17394f093f01ca5554cf26b528\">yearlong campaign to crush Hamas<\/a> in Gaza.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Israel should get all the support it needs from the United States until Iran&#8217;s government \u201cfollows other dictatorships of the past into the dustbin of history,\u201d said Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at Washington&#8217;s conservative-leaning Foundation for the Defense of Democracies \u2014 calls echoed by some Israeli political figures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Going further, Yoel Guzansky, a former senior staffer at Israel\u2019s National Security Council, called for the Biden administration to join Israel in direct attacks in Iran. That would send &#8220;the right message to the Iranians \u2014 \u2018Don\u2019t mess with us,\u2019&#8221; Guzansky said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Critics, however, highlight lessons from the U.S. military campaign in Iraq and <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/iraq-war-invasion-anniversary-saddam-hussein-47b558083aad51d96106bc72342c49ea\">toppling of Saddam Hussein<\/a>, when President George W. Bush ignored Arab warnings that the Iraqi dictator was the region&#8217;s indispensable counterbalance to Iranian influence. They caution against racking up military victories without adequately considering the risks, end goals or plans for <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/scars-of-war-0000019256a2d640a5fef6ba634b0000\">what comes next<\/a>, and warn of unintended consequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/militarytimes\/news\/your-military\/2024\/09\/25\/what-will-the-surge-of-us-forces-to-the-middle-east-cost-the-military\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/8629789.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">What will the surge of US forces to the Middle East cost the military?<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">The Pentagon says its surge in forces has helped avert a regional war. But officials warn that it could wear down the services.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ultimately, Israel \u201cwill be in a situation where it can only protect itself by perpetual war,\u201d said Vali Nasr, who was an adviser to the Obama administration. Now a professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, or SAIS, he has been one of the leading documenters of the rise of Iranian regional influence since the U.S. invasion of Iraq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu giving <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-us-diplomacy-ebd96ed549d98f2362a9ba05ea1e1199\">limited weight to Biden administration calls<\/a> for restraint, the United States and its partners in the Middle East are \u201cat the mercy of how far Bibi Netanyahu will push it,\u201d Nasr said, referring to the Israeli leader by his nickname.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt&#8217;s as if we hadn&#8217;t learned the lessons, or the folly, of that experiment &#8230; in Iraq in 2003 about reshaping the Middle East order,\u201d said Randa Slim, a fellow at SAIS and researcher at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1265\" height=\"707\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/bulk-missile.png.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-108558\" srcset=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/bulk-missile.png.png 1265w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/bulk-missile.png.png?resize=300,168 300w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/bulk-missile.png.png?resize=768,429 768w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/bulk-missile.png.png?resize=1024,572 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1265px) 100vw, 1265px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The Navy warship Bulkeley fires a missile to help intercept Iran&#8217;s ballistic missile attack against Israel on Oct. 1, 2024. (Screenshot\/U.S. Navy)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Advocates of Israel\u2019s campaign hope for the <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-airstrikes-28-september-2024-c4751957433ff944c4eb06027885a973\">weakening of Iran and its armed proxies<\/a> that attack the U.S., Israel and their partners, oppress civil society and increasingly are <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/russia-iran-ukraine-ballistic-missiles-us-intelligence-1e637abe11396989c641fa5bf3f57b24\">teaming up with Russia<\/a> and other Western adversaries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Opponents warn that military action without resolving the grievances of Palestinians and others risks endless and destabilizing <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-anniversary-statistics-e61765035c725b3c8d4840e2bab565cd\">cycles of war<\/a>, insurgency and extremist violence, and Middle East governments growing more repressive to try to control the situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And there\u2019s the <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/iran-nuclear-weapons-sullivan-blinken-2ba2de90dce5047c4a698b2d57a90e4b\">threat that Iran develops nuclear weapons<\/a> to try to ensure its survival. Before the Israeli strikes on Hezbollah, Iranian leaders concerned about Israel\u2019s offensives had made clear that they were interested in returning to negotiations with the U.S. on their nuclear program and claimed interest in improved relations overall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"6720\" height=\"4480\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP24271560991465.jpg.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-108560\" srcset=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP24271560991465.jpg.jpg 6720w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP24271560991465.jpg.jpg?resize=300,200 300w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP24271560991465.jpg.jpg?resize=768,512 768w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP24271560991465.jpg.jpg?resize=1024,683 1024w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP24271560991465.jpg.jpg?resize=1536,1024 1536w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP24271560991465.jpg.jpg?resize=2048,1365 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 6720px) 100vw, 6720px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A Houthi supporter raises a Hezbollah flag during an anti-Israel and anti-U.S. rally in Yemen, September 2024. (Osamah Abdulrahman\/AP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In just weeks, Israeli airstrikes and intelligence operations have <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/hezbollah-lebanon-nasrallah-israel-8b2ae56a54d641c6910a79e9e5699824\">devastated the leadership<\/a>, ranks and arsenals of Lebanon-based Hezbollah \u2014 which had been one of the Middle East\u2019s most powerful fighting forces and Iran&#8217;s overseas bulwark against attacks on Iranian territory \u2014 and hit oil infrastructure of <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/yemen-houthis-gaza-israel-defe499e9df870381f078ad3e3b667b5\">Yemen&#8217;s Iran-allied Houthis<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/hub\/israel-hamas-war\">A year of Israeli airstrikes in Gaza<\/a> appears to have reduced the leadership of Iranian-allied Hamas to a few survivors hiding in underground tunnels. However, Israeli forces again engaged in heavy fighting there this week, and Hamas was able to fire rockets at Tel Aviv in a surprising show of enduring strength on the Oct. 7 anniversary of the militant group&#8217;s attack on Israel, which started the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Anticipated Israeli counterstrikes on Iran could accelerate regional shifts in power. The response would follow <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-gaza-news-10-01-2024-eb175dff6e46906caea8b9e43dfbd3da\">Iran launching ballistic missiles at Israel<\/a> last week in retaliation for killings of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It also could escalate the risk of all-out regional war that U.S. President Joe Biden \u2014 and decades of previous administrations \u2014 worked to avert.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The expansion of Israeli attacks since late last month has sidelined mediation by the U.S., Egypt and Qatar for <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/us-israel-blinken-hamas-palestinians-gaza-34f91f99c9a4f63e98134aaecb7af971\">a cease-fire and hostage release deal<\/a> in Gaza. U.S. leaders say Israel did not warn them before striking Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon but have <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/middle-east-israel-hezbollah-united-states-8bed0f7a37b5059ba4c94552ff750f34\">defended the surge in attacks, while still pressing for peace<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, said in an interview with CBS&#8217; \u201c60 Minutes\u201d aired Monday that the U.S. was dedicated to supplying Israel with the military aid needed to protect itself but would keep pushing to end the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWe\u2019re not going to stop in terms of putting that pressure on Israel and in the region, including Arab leaders,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Israel\u2019s expanded strikes raise for many what is the tempting prospect of weakening Iran\u2019s anti-Western, anti-Israel alliance with like-minded armed groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen to governments in Russia and <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/israel-hamas-lawsuit-iran-syria-north-korea-86460c28b0e7f8c6c8cd1fad6b1f5929\">North Korea<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Called the \u201cAxis of Resistance,&#8221; Iran&#8217;s military alliances grew \u2014 regionally, then globally \u2014 after the U.S. invasion of Iraq removed Saddam, who had fought an eight-year war against Iran&#8217;s ambitious clerical regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"4104\" height=\"2736\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP24281242838274.jpg.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-108564\" srcset=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP24281242838274.jpg.jpg 4104w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP24281242838274.jpg.jpg?resize=300,200 300w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP24281242838274.jpg.jpg?resize=768,512 768w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP24281242838274.jpg.jpg?resize=1024,683 1024w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP24281242838274.jpg.jpg?resize=1536,1024 1536w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP24281242838274.jpg.jpg?resize=2048,1365 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 4104px) 100vw, 4104px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Smoke rises following an explosion in southern Lebanon as seen from northern Israel, on Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. (AP Photo\/Leo Correa)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the unintended effects of the U.S. intervention were even bigger, including the rise of Iran\u2019s Axis of Resistance and new extremist groups, including <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/iraq-syria-islamic-state-us-centcom-attacks-53bdb45048b8f1389d9181b359e8260d\">the Islamic State<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cAn emboldened and expansionist Iran appears to be the only victor\u201d of the 2003 Iraq war, notes a U.S. Army review of lessons learned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cTwo decades ago, who could have seen a day when Iran was supporting Russia with arms? The reason is because of its increased influence\u201d after the U.S. overthrow of Saddam, said Ihsan Alshimary, professor of political science at Baghdad University.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even more than in 2003, global leaders are offering little clear idea on how the shifts in power that Israel\u2019s military is putting in motion will end \u2014 for Iran, Israel, the Middle East at large, and the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Iran and its allies are being weakened, said Goldberg, at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. So is U.S. influence as it appears to be dragged along by Israel, Nasr said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The conflict could end up hurting Israel if it bogs down in a ground war in Lebanon, for example, said Mehran Kamrava, a professor and Middle East expert at Georgetown University in Qatar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After four decades of deep animosity between Israeli and Iranian leaders, \u201cthe cold war between them has turned into a hot war. And this is significantly changing \u2014 is bound to change \u2014 the strategic landscape in the Middle East,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWe are certainly at the precipice of change,\u201d Kamrava said. But \u201cthe direction and nature of that change is very hard to predict at this stage.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Israeli military strikes are targeting Iran\u2019s armed proxies across a nearly 2,000-mile stretch of the Middle East and are threatening Iran itself.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":108557,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":13,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"coauthors":[5407],"class_list":["post-75701","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-flashpoints"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"KFEGC5ZZNFTUMV2DIY2G6UCKNF","arc_canonical_url":"\/flashpoints\/israel-palestine\/2024\/10\/08\/with-us-military-support-israel-shifts-middle-east-power-balance\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>With US military support, Israel shifts Middle East power balance - Air Force TImes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Israeli military strikes are targeting Iran\u2019s armed proxies across a nearly 2,000-mile stretch of the Middle East and are threatening Iran itself.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"With US military support, Israel shifts Middle East power balance\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Israeli military strikes are targeting Iran\u2019s armed proxies across a nearly 2,000-mile stretch of the Middle East and are threatening Iran itself.\" 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