{"id":83176,"date":"2018-11-19T22:55:09","date_gmt":"2018-11-19T22:55:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/airforcetimes\/uncategorized\/2018\/11\/19\/space-force-could-cost-fraction-of-air-force-estimates\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T00:29:28","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T00:29:28","slug":"space-force-could-cost-fraction-of-air-force-estimates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/airforcetimes\/news\/your-air-force\/2018\/11\/19\/space-force-could-cost-fraction-of-air-force-estimates\/","title":{"rendered":"Space Force could cost fraction of Air Force estimates"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">WASHINGTON \u2014 The Pentagon hasn\u2019t released its official cost estimate to stand up <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/space\/2018\/08\/09\/space-force-will-be-6th-military-branch-by-2020-vice-president-pence-announces\/\" target=_blank>a brand-new space service,<\/a> but a top defense budget analyst has crunched the numbers and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/congress\/2018\/09\/18\/new-space-force-price-tag-fuels-skepticism-on-capitol-hill\/\" target=_blank>believes it may cost $550 million more per year<\/a> for a Space Force \u2014 at most.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In order to add the headquarters staffing needed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/space\/2018\/08\/09\/space-force-will-be-6th-military-branch-by-2020-vice-president-pence-announces\/\" target=_blank>to run a Space Force<\/a>, the Defense Department would need anywhere from an additional $300 million to $550 million per year on top of the money it already budgets for space personnel, operations and procurement, according to a new report by Todd Harrison of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All told, that amounts to a boost of $1.5 billion to a total of $2.7 billion over a five-year period.<\/p>\n\n\n<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link smg-interstitial-link--fallback wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/space\/2018\/11\/15\/heres-what-the-pentagon-thinks-the-actual-cost-of-a-space-force-will-be\/?utm_source=clavis\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__fallback-link\">Here\u2019s what the Pentagon thinks the actual cost of a Space Force will be<\/a><\/aside>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That figure is roughly in line with Deputy Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan\u2019s public statements last week that the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/space\/2018\/10\/29\/the-biggest-challenge-to-the-pentagons-space-plan-hint-its-not-the-technology\/\" target=_blank>initial costs of a Space Force<\/a> could be as low as $5 billion and definitely within the \u201csingle digits\u201d of billions of dollars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe single digit billion dollar figure that Mr. Shanahan referenced represents an incremental cost over a five-year period. The transfer of existing budgets into the Space Force does not represent a new cost and is therefore not included. Additional capabilities such as new satellites are also excluded from Space Force cost estimates,&#8221; said Lt. Col Joe Buccino, Shanahan\u2019s spokesman, in a Tuesday statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cTo deliver increased capability for minimal cost, the Space Force proposal will leverage existing capabilities where possible.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Harrison\u2019s estimate is also a rebuke of the Air Force\u2019s own proposal, signed off by Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson, which <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/digital-show-dailies\/air-force-association\/2018\/09\/17\/air-force-secretary-space-force-will-come-with-13b-in-added-costs\/\" target=_blank>predicted almost $13 billion in additional cost <\/a>over the first five years of the Space Force\u2019s creation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Air Force\u2019s estimate initially sent a wave of panic among members of Congress, but Harrison decried the Air Force figures as \u201cmalicious compliance\u201d meant to kill the Space Force plan by overinflating its costs \u2014 a characterization he stands by.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThey were not asked to produce that cost estimate, and they did it with the largest possible scope, without sufficient caveats to let people know that that was much more than the cost of the Space Force,\u201d he told reporters in a Nov. 19 briefing. \u201cAnd they previously made it known that they don\u2019t like this idea.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/space\/2018\/10\/23\/pentagon-presents-recommendations-on-space-force-to-trump\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"158\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/space-force.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Pentagon presents recommendations on Space Force to Trump<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">Vice President Mike Pence said he expects President Donald Trump to take the first steps to create a Space Force very soon.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wilson, for her part, defended the Air Force\u2019s cost estimate last week, saying it was scoped appropriately <a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/smr\/defense-news-conference\/2018\/09\/05\/the-top-air-force-official-is-now-onboard-with-trumps-space-force-plan\/\" target=_blank>to reflect the wishes of President Donald Trump<\/a> to create a completely independent space force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWhatever is put forward needs to implement the president\u2019s proposal. What we put forward was in the cost estimates to implement a standalone department,&#8221; she said Thursday. &#8220;Our estimate that we gave to a lot of people in the Pentagon in September was the cost of a fully fledged stand-alone department and also a unified combatant command.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wilson\u2019s choice to include the new combatant command \u2014 U.S. Space Command \u2014 and new procurement organization, called the Space Development Agency, in its proposal is an important distinction from Harrison\u2019s estimates, which include neither.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nor does Harrison\u2019s assessment include a near-term bill for creating a Space Force, though he believes that the costs for one-time items like designing a uniform, emblem and flag would be incidental.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cMost of this is just a simple matter of organization and whether or not you think that is needed. The added cost is, you know, a handful of F-35s, or less than the [Defense Department] audit\u201d he joked. \u201cI don\u2019t think cost actually should be that big of a factor in their decisions. I think the bigger factor is whether or not people think it\u2019s needed. That\u2019s what the debate should be about.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To create his cost estimate, Harrison put forth<a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/space\/2018\/08\/09\/no-answers-yet-on-cost-structure-of-space-force\/\" target=_blank> three different options of how a space service could be organized.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The first, a Space Corps, would function independently but fall under the Department of the Air Force, similar to the Marine Corps\u2019 placement under the Department of the Navy. The Space Corps would be comprised of the entirety of the Air Force\u2019s space units, known at the 14th Air Force. Harrison estimates a total cost of $11.3 billion per year for that option, with only $300 million in new funds needed per year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The second option, termed \u201cSpace Force Lite,\u201d includes all of the Air Force\u2019s space units as well as the space functions of the Navy and Army: the Army\u2019s 1st Space Brigade, the Navy\u2019s Program Executive Office Space Systems and the Navy Satellite Operations Center at Naval Air Station Point Magu. For that concept, an additional $400 million would be needed for a total of $13.4 billion annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Finally, a \u201cSpace Force Heavy\u201d would add in some functions from the Army and the U.S. Missile Defense Agency used for space situational awareness and midcourse missile intercept capabilities. That would cost $21.5 billion total per year, with $500 million in new funding necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So where do the new costs come from? New headquarters staff, and for the Space Force options, staffing for the secretary of the Space Force, Harrison said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To arrive at those numbers, he set a baseline of 500 personnel for headquarters staff and added 5 percent of the services\u2019 anticipated workforce size \u2014 coincidentally, about the same ratio of Coast Guard personnel to its own headquarters staffing, Harrison said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Much of the cost growth cited in the Air Force\u2019s own estimate is linked to an increase of about 13,000 personnel for new headquarters staff, direct reporting units and forward-operating activities, a \u201cSpace Force element,\u201d and more staff for U.S. Space Command.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Harrison criticized the service\u2019s proposal as being unclear on the role those new billets would perform.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe Air Force was either adding new activities \u2014 things that aren\u2019t being done today \u2014 which is a separate question from creating a new service, so they should not included them; or they are not transferring over all of the people who do space-related jobs in the air forces,\u201d Harrison said. \u201cThey could be assuming that they\u2019re going to keep some of those people and not move them over.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If that\u2019s the case, it could rack up the Defense Department budget. Increasing the headquarters staff of the Space Force or U.S. Space Command is another potential way to increase costs, Harrison said, but Congress has some power to limit that by putting staffing limits in place.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/space\/2018\/06\/19\/trump-wants-a-space-force-now-what\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"157\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-977952058.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Trump wants a Space Force. Now what?<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">How do you build a new military service from scratch?<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Whether the Space Force becomes a reality will be up to Congress, which is the only part of government able to create a new military service. With the Democrats controlling the House, successful passage is a \u201ccoin toss\u201d that will be dependent on the specific proposal put forward in Trump\u2019s fiscal 2020 budget, and how much support it seemingly has in Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Shanahan, Harrison said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cHow big of a scope do they envision? How disruptive is it going to be perceived as being? And I think another political factor, quite frankly is: Is this seen as being Trump\u2019s Space Force, or is this something that the military is seen on get on board with?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i>Aaron Mehta in Washington contributed to this report.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A defense budget analyst thinks the Air Force overestimated the cost of standing up a new space service. Here are his numbers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":65709,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":67,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[101,24,88,89,16,26,65,67],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3305],"class_list":["post-83176","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news-roundup","category-home","category-left-column","category-middle-column","category-news","category-newsletters","category-pentagon-congress","category-your-air-force"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"OL3I52HQCFCJ3IRNDEBTFFE7ZU","arc_canonical_url":"\/space\/2018\/11\/19\/space-force-could-cost-fraction-of-air-force-estimates\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Space Force could cost fraction of Air Force estimates - Air Force TImes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A defense budget analyst thinks the Air Force overestimated the cost of standing up a new space service. 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