{"id":83302,"date":"2022-03-01T21:11:12","date_gmt":"2022-03-01T21:11:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/airforcetimes\/uncategorized\/2022\/03\/01\/heres-why-a-no-fly-zone-over-ukraine-is-off-the-table\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T00:47:50","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T00:47:50","slug":"heres-why-a-no-fly-zone-over-ukraine-is-off-the-table","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/airforcetimes\/disaster\/2022\/03\/01\/heres-why-a-no-fly-zone-over-ukraine-is-off-the-table\/","title":{"rendered":"Here\u2019s why a no-fly zone over Ukraine is off the table"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WASHINGTON \u2014 In response to Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine<\/a>, the West has responded with devastating sanctions and a swift condemnation and isolation of Russia as well as by sending arms and other support to Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But one option the Biden administration has definitively taken off the table: imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts told Defense News a no-fly zone would present multiple challenges \u2014 up to and including worries it could ignite a larger conflict between Russia and NATO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAs much as we would love to say no-fly zones are super easy and it\u2019s a clean way of doing business, this is simply not the case,\u201d Heather Penney, a former F-16 pilot and senior resident fellow at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, said in an interview.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Russian forces advanced on key Ukrainian cities, calls to impose a no-fly zone have increased. In a tweet Tuesday morning, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he had \u201cemphasized the need to close the sky over\u201d Ukraine in a telephone conversation with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s not happening, the press secretaries for the White House and Pentagon said Monday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a press briefing, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said \u201cthat\u2019s not a good idea,\u201d adding that President Joe Biden does not want to risk putting the United States military in conflict with Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhat that\u2019d require is implementation by the U.S. military,\u201d Psaki said. \u201cIt would essentially mean the U.S. military would be shooting down planes, Russian planes. That is definitely escalatory.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For a no-fly zone to be credible, Penney said, the U.S. or NATO would have to shoot down any Russian aircraft or air defenses violating it \u2014 or the Russians would have to believe the U.S. would open fire so it would steer clear of Ukrainian airspace. If the U.S. or NATO declares a no-fly zone and doesn\u2019t enforce it, it becomes a paper tiger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDo we want our credibility tested that way?\u201d said Rachel Rizzo, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council\u2019s Europe Center.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Penney said the U.S. opening fire on Russian forces would upend the delicate network of international support for Ukraine the administration and Europe have created.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTo be credible, we would have to be willing to take that first shot,\u201d Penney said. \u201cStarting that kinetic war with Russia is something that the administration has been very careful to avoid. Every element of escalation has been initiated from Russia, and that has been key to a lot of the international support for Ukraine.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

John Venable, a defense policy expert from the Heritage Foundation and former F-16 pilot, agreed. \u201cA no-fly zone would be a declaration of war in [Russian President Vladimir] Putin\u2019s mind,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Penney said the debate over a no-fly zone is what happens when neither side in a conflict achieves air superiority in a conflict, or displays \u201ccredible combat airpower\u201d \u2014 though she said she fears Russia will do just that in the coming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine did not have the fighters and air defenses it needed to drive Russian aircraft out of its airspace, she said. And Russia, for whatever reason, did not commit the air forces it would need to definitively seize air superiority in the first days of the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhat we expected is not how things have gone down,\u201d Penney said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is likely to change as Russia shifts course and commits more forces to the invasion, Penney said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe Ukrainian air force has put up a valiant effort to defend their airspace and their territory,\u201d she said. \u201cBut they\u2019ve been unsuccessful because they did not have the capabilities or the capacity, both from a fighter perspective and from an air defense perspective [such as surface-to-air missiles].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
U.S. Air Force and Royal Netherlands Air Force F-35A Lightning II aircraft conduct a bilateral air-to-air training exercise over the Netherlands, Feb. 22, 2022. The Air Force has moved more fighters to bolster NATO allies in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — but the administration has ruled out a no-fly zone. (Tech. Sgt. Rachel Maxwell\/Air Force)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine has used its Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 combat drones very well, Penney said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And Ukraine has lauded and mythologized its fighter pilots as heroes and emblems of national resistance, rallying around morale-boosting aerial victories over Russian aircraft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But if Ukraine had definitively kept control of its skies, Penney said, its air force could do a lot more to destroy massed Russian forces. One potential target could have been the 40 mile-long Russian military convoy spotted outside of Kyiv in satellite images, she said, similar to the so-called \u201cHighway of Death\u201d attack on hundreds of Iraqi army vehicles retreating on six-lane Highway 80 from Kuwait to Basra in 1991.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Highways can allow militaries to rapidly and efficiently move large numbers of their vehicles and heavy equipment without risking them getting bogged down in mud or other unforgiving terrain. But they also can constrain forces and make them an easy target, Penney said \u2014 if their enemy has control of the skies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A \u2018night and day difference\u2019<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

After the Gulf War, the U.S. and allies created no-fly zones over northern and southern Iraq dubbed operations Northern Watch and Southern Watch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Operating from Incirlik Air Base in Turkey for the north, and bases in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain for the south, U.S. aircraft, alongside British and French allies, conducted aerial reconnaissance, airborne command and control using E-3 Airborne Warning and Control System, or AWACS, aircraft, and strikes against Iraqi air defenses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iraqi aircraft infrequently challenged the no-fly zone, but came under fire when they did. U.S. forces shot down two Iraqi MiG fighters that violated the no-fly zone in 1992 and 1993, as well as two Su-22 fighters in March 1991.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But maintaining those no-fly zones until the outbreak of the Iraq War in 2003 was a considerable effort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And a no-fly zone over Ukraine would be a \u201cnight and day difference\u201d from Iraq, Venable said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dave Deptula, a retired Air Force lieutenant general who commanded Operation Northern Watch in 1998 and 1999, said each Iraqi no-fly zone typically had about 50 U.S. and allied aircraft on hand, to fly patrols a couple hours each day. Flying around the clock would have taken much more, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Flying around-the-clock air patrols over Ukraine \u2014 a nation that covers more than twice the area of the Iraqi no-fly zones \u2014 would easily take hundreds of fighters, said Deptula, now dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis is not just something you flip a switch and, OK, we\u2019re gonna put a no-fly zone up,\u201d Deptula said. \u201cIt requires extensive preparation and definition [of the mission and objectives] to be effective.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It would also mean thousands of airmen across multiple bases to fuel, arm and maintain these fighters \u2014 not to mention a significant aerial refueling infrastructure to keep them in the air, and ISR aircraft such as the AWACS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Iraqi no-fly zone came after that nation\u2019s air force, defenses and command and control were all but wiped out \u2014 a situation that doesn\u2019t exist in Ukraine. A no-fly zone there would require a significant suppression of enemy air defense, or SEAD, effort to take out Russian defenses such as the highly capable S-400 surface-to-air missile system, likely with F-22 Raptors and F-35 Lightning IIs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the U.S. or NATO would very likely lose aircraft in such a mission, Venable said \u2014 and trying to rescue downed pilots in such a volatile region would test the limits of the military\u2019s combat search-and-rescue capability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Penney said the U.S. needs to look closely at Russia\u2019s difficulties in the skies over Ukraine and draw lessons for how to establish, and the importance of, air superiority. For the last two decades, the U.S. has maintained \u201cde facto air dominance\u201d anywhere it has operated, she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That won\u2019t be the case in the future, if war breaks out with China \u2014 or Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve really taken [air superiority] for granted,\u201d Penney said. \u201cOur Air Force is the oldest and smallest that it\u2019s ever been, and we could find ourselves in similar situations [as Russia], because we too may lack the capability and capacity.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rachel Cohen and Geoff Ziezulewicz contributed to this report.<\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Had a phone conversation with Chancellor @OlafScholz<\/a>. Spoke about Russia's shelling of residential neighborhoods in Ukrainian cities during peace talks. Emphasized the need to close the sky over \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\udde6. The work on Ukraine's accession to the #EU<\/a> needs to be accelerated.<\/p>— Volodymyr Zelenskyy \/ \u0412\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0434\u0438\u043c\u0438\u0440 \u0417\u0435\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0441\u044c\u043a\u0438\u0439 (@ZelenskyyUa) March 1, 2022<\/a><\/blockquote>