“We are left in a space where it’s very difficult to see the way forward other than — at some point after a Ukrainian victory in this war — we’re going to have to reconstitute the basis of a new European security architecture,” Michael Carpenter told Defense News in an exclusive interview.

By a new architecture, he means a set of institutions that makes OSCE’s participating states more secure and war less likely, Carpenter noted. That would mean restoring conventional military deterrence and, eventually, a new regime of transparency and confidence building, including through arms control.

“Needless to say, a new European security order will take a long time to build given how badly Russia has undermined the institutions that were built up over the last two decades,” Carpenter said.

When that occurs, OSCE will be front and center in discussions about what that security architecture should look like.

The organization is positioned for that job because of its “unique membership” of 57 nations, which includes all members of NATO and the European Union as well as every post-Soviet state, he argued.

“It is the right place in which to build a new European security architecture,” he said.

The organization is focused on countering Russian narratives regarding its invasion of Ukraine, while also supporting Kyiv diplomatically and on the ground.

While Ukraine’s backers across the globe are coordinating military support via the regularly held Ukraine Defense Contact Group — also known as the Ramstein Group, as the inaugural meeting was held at Ramstein Air Base in Germany — OSCE is trying to counter Russian disinformation and documenting its war crimes, which will diplomatically “isolate” Moscow, Carpenter said.

“At the moment, there is not a single other participating state in the OSCE that supports Russia’s war,” Carpenter added. “By exposing Russia’s actions each and every week, we … provide a historical record for future accountability efforts.”

Russia has remained the only participating state to defend its invasion of Ukraine to the rest of the members since February 2022, the organization confirmed in an Aug. 11 email. Belarus, another participating state, continues to aid Russia with active logistical support and by hosting training sites for Russian forces.

However, at OSCE, Belarus refrains from speaking in support of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, a spokesperson said.

The organization was already on “a downward slope” with Russia for many years, which was “not living up to the letter or spirit” of OSCE’s Vienna Document, said Carpenter, who served as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine, Eurasia and conventional arms control from 2015 to 2017.

In the Vienna Document, OSCE’s participating states commit to sharing detailed information on their armed forces and major weapon systems on an annual basis, along with data about their military budgets, defense and armed forces planning, and scheduled maneuvers.

Moscow announced in 2007 that it was suspending its participation from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. The government of President Vladimir Putin also positioned troops in the Transnistria region of Moldova, in Georgia, and in Ukraine — moves that each respective government has declared illegitimate.

In recent years, Russia also withdrew from the Open Skies Treaty and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty; the United States also withdrew from those under former President Donald Trump.

While the U.S. has not itself announced any transfers of F-16 fighter aircraft to Ukraine to date, it supports other allies’ intent to deliver those aircraft to Kyiv, said Stan Brown, the department’s principal deputy assistant secretary for the Bureau of Political-Military Affairs.

Reports began swirling in May that the Netherlands was considering giving a portion of its F-16 fleet to Ukraine, and wanted to begin training pilots as soon as possible. But the transfer of such aircraft to Ukraine has to be a “holistic” approach, to include training both pilots and maintainers, Brown told reporters Monday at the biennial Paris Air Show outside the city. One of the first steps in a potential transfer of F-16 aircraft will be the license to train those airmen, before the license to transfer the aircraft even occurs.

Then, the aircraft themselves need to be identified – whether they’ll be delivered via a third-party transfer or another mechanism – before developing a plan for the Ukrainian military to use the aircraft, Brown continued.

The State Department is already working to complete the paperwork for third-party transfer requests coming from nations like the Netherlands so that pilot training can begin, he said. But he declined to provide a specific timeline for that completion.

The shadow of Russia’s war in Ukraine has prompted an overhaul of the State Department’s foreign military sales processes to both ensure Ukraine is receiving the military aid it needs quickly and efficiently and to streamline sales processes for other U.S. allies.

Last month, the department released a “retooling” document for FMS sales, detailing a 10-point plan to streamline the process and improve efficiency in providing capabilities to allies. The points include strategic goals such as developing regional approaches to arms transfers and promoting FMS cases based on the goals described in the National Security Strategy. But they also acknowledge a need to improve security cooperation officer training and modernize the notification process to Congress to avoid duplication of efforts while ensuring transparency.

The U.S. government has provided about $40 billion in military aid to Ukraine to date and “used pretty much every tool in our security cooperation toolkit to get things done,” Brown told reporters on the show floor here. That aid has come in many forms: presidential drawdown authorities, direct transfers from Defense Department stocks, excess defense articles, third-party transfers and direct commercial sale re-exports, as well as foreign military sales and grant assistance, and licensed direct commercial sales, he noted.

“The bottom line [is] that the scale of what we’re doing there is historic,” Brown said. “Things that used to take months and weeks to get through the approval process across the interagency [are] happening in a manner of hours.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also prompted the State Department to prioritize transitioning nations away from Soviet-made equipment, Brown said.

Multiple European nations have donated their aging Russian capabilities to Ukraine over the past year and a half. The Czech Republic, Greece, and Slovenia have sent over T-72 tanks, BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles and a slew of armored personnel carriers, with commitments from NATO member nations to replace that equipment with more modern, interoperable vehicles.

The State Department’s goal now is to help incentivize such nations to continue donating equipment to Ukraine that will be useful in Kyiv’s defense against Russia, as well as help to transition those countries away from Soviet-era systems in the future.

“We look first to make sure countries can help backfill Ukraine … and then we try to backfill them,” he added.

The support is crucial to protect the alliance’s own member nations, who would also suffer from contamination if Russia used a chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) weapon against Ukraine, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday from Brussels, during a televised press conference.

“Any use of chemical weapons would totally change the nature of the conflict, and would be a blatant violation of international law and have far-reaching consequences,” Stoltenberg said. “I think that’s the most important message to convey, that any use of chemical weapons is unacceptable.”

Stoltenberg did not immediately provide details on what the CBRN support would include, saying it will be one of several discussion points during Thursday’s planned summit with leaders of the 30 member nations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will virtually address the NATO leaders during the summit in a closed session.

Members are expected to approve new cybersecurity assistance for Ukraine, plus additional support for non-NATO members Georgia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The role of China in the Ukrainian conflict will also be discussed.

“Allies are concerned that China could provide material support for the Russian invasion,” Stoltenberg said.

Meanwhile, member nations have deployed four new NATO battle groups in Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary, effectively doubling the number of groups positioned along the alliance’s eastern border. France has offered to lead the group in Romania, while the Czech Republic will lead the additional troops in Slovakia. Bulgaria and Hungary will lead the battlegroups in their respective countries, a NATO spokesperson told Defense News.

NATO has existing battle groups stationed in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland, and together the eight battle groups will span NATO’s borders from the Baltic to the Black Sea, Stoltenberg said. There are now hundreds of thousands of NATO troops at high readiness alert across the alliance, to include 100,000 U.S. forces across Europe, and 40,000 forces directly under NATO command mostly in the eastern part of the alliance, he added.

Those battle groups will be in place “as long as is necessary,” and NATO is now deliberating how to position its troops for the long term.

“This invasion … will have long-term consequences for our security,” Stoltenberg said. “It’s a new normal for our security, and NATO has to respond to that new reality.”

Julianne Smith, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, said military advisers would present options in the next months for fresh troop commitments in the eastern alliance countries. That’s because the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act, which limits such deployments, is effectively out the window following Moscow’s war on Ukraine, she said.

“Russia is in clear violation” of the pact, Smith said Wednesday during remarks at an event sponsored by the Atlantic Council think tank.

Before making final troop-level recommendations, NATO analysts must take into account how the Ukraine war will develop, and how many forces Russia intends to leave in Belarus, she added.

Smith dampened expectations about a Polish proposal, to be discussed this week, for a NATO peace mission in Ukraine. While the idea is “not dead in the water,” she said it poses many “open questions” and would ultimately run up against a pledge by U.S. President Joe Biden and other alliance leaders to refrain from sending troops to Ukraine.

Sebastian Sprenger in Washington contributed to this report.

RAMSTEIN AIR BASE, Germany — In less than a week, the air base that runs the U.S. military’s European and African operations has transformed into an international city, hosting tens of thousands of men, women and children fleeing Afghanistan.

Officials at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, first learned Aug. 19 that evacuees escaping the Taliban would be brought to the installation for processing, medical evaluations and temporary housing before they are resettled in the United States. By the following day, the first influx of C-17 military transport aircraft arrived, filled mostly with American citizens, Afghan nationals and their families.

The base has worked around the clock to ensure evacuees have medical service, food, water and shelter while based here under Operation Allies Refuge, officials here told reporters Thursday. More than 350 tents sit across the airfield to house the thousands of people arriving on a daily basis, They receive critical supplies from the Defense Department, the Red Cross and other partners, and undergo various processing procedures before they can get on an aircraft bound for Dulles International Airport in Washington, D.C.

Ramstein is the headquarters of United States Air Forces in Europe and Africa, but starting last Friday it turned into “an international airport and a city, with at least three to four times our occupancy on base,” said Brig. Gen. Josh Olson, 86th Airlift Wing commander.

The teams here were dealing with a sudden surge of incoming evacuees on Thursday, and Ramstein was expected to reach its capacity by the evening, he told reporters. Ramstein Air Base can host up to 12,000 evacuees from Afghanistan at one time, while the nearby U.S. Army Garrison Rhine Ordnance Barracks is set up to accept 5,000 more. Once those two bases are at capacity, evacuees will be transported from interim points in the Middle East to U.S. bases in Sigonella, Italy, and Rota, Spain, he added. Naval Air Station Sigonella, which is also acting as an interim transfer point, received a group of 662 “qualified evacuees” on Sunday, the Navy said.

As of Thursday, Ramstein had hosted 6,500 evacuees and Rhine Ordnance Barracks hosted about 500 more. About 10,000 more passengers were expected to arrive that night, Olson said.

“Tonight, we’ll be maxed out,’ he said.

By Friday morning, more than 4,100 evacuees had departed on 18 flights headed for the United States, with more flights expected through the week. Evacuees in limbo bide their time in the temporary housing pods, while children play soccer and basketball behind fences where clothing and prayer rugs are hung out to dry. And they peer out at airmen patrolling the area.

Continuing to struggle

The number of evacuees coming into Ramstein changes on almost an hourly basis. As of Friday morning, approximately 76 aircraft had transported people to Ramstein from Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul and from Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar.

“Right now, we’re continuing to struggle to have that outflow” of evacuees move out of Ramstein, onto commercial aircraft and onward to the United States, Olson said. On Thursday, the number of outgoing flights from the base to the United States had doubled within the past 24 hours.

When Operation Allies Refuge was launched late last week, Ramstein had a hard time finding sufficient tents and cots for the influx of evacuees, Olson said. But the base gathered resources from across its European partners, including the DoD, German government and nongovernment organizations to get enough supplies.

Servicemembers have had to adapt quickly to new developments. Together with representatives from the State Department, Ramstein set up a camp for unaccompanied minors coming through. About 15 unaccompanied children between the ages of three and 12 had been identified as of Thursday, Olson said.

The 86th Medical Group has been tasked to provide acute medical care as needed to the evacuees when they arrive. The majority of cases seen so far have been related to heat injuries sustained while packed in aircraft or in the stifling Qatari heat, or trauma wounds sustained before leaving Kabul, said Lt. Col. Simon Ritchie, who is coordinating the medical efforts at Ramstein.

The medical crew is doing its best to manage erratic flows of incoming passengers, he told reporters. While aircraft are generally coming in every hour or so, “sometimes it’s 50 passengers, sometimes it’s 400 passengers,” he said.

The uncertainty is tough to manage, he added. “We don’t know how many planes are arriving. We don’t know how many passengers are on the aircraft. And the most important thing, we don’t know what kind of injuries to expect.”

But despite the unpredictable pace, “the team’s ready, we’re ready to go,” he added.

Next stop, USA

The sense of uncertainty is also present at the evacuees’ last stop at Ramstein, a makeshift terminal in Ramstein’s Hangar 5. Here, passengers go through a final screening process before they can board commercial aircraft bound for Dulles.

About 200 people are processed per hour, depending on the size of families on each flight, said Maj. Dustin Dere, director of operations for the 721st Air Mobility Operations Group. After those passengers complete final screening, Dere’s team writes up the flight manifest at the terminal, he added.

“We don’t necessarily know who’s going on the plane” beforehand, Dere said. “We go to the lodging facilities and pull the number of people” that can go on the next flight.

Most of the commercial aircraft being used under the Civil Reserve Air Fleet are Boeing 767s, which can carry about 250 passengers, and Boeing 747s, which can carry over 400 people, he said. Boeing KC-10 Extender aircraft have also been dispatched from the United Kingdom to transport passengers from Qatar and Kuwait to Ramstein, he noted.

The pressure is also temporal. The U.S. government and its allies are rushing to evacuate as many people from Afghanistan as possible by the Aug. 31 deadline set by U.S. President Joe Biden July 8, a follow-up to the February 2020 peace agreement between his predecessor Donald Trump and the Taliban. Biden has vowed to continue evacuation flights out of Kabul, despite the terrorist attack Thursday when ISIS-K, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant – Khorasan Province, launched a suicide bomb attack and firefight outside the airport, killing 13 U.S. troops and 170 Afghan nationals.

But while Ramstein is dealing with a surge of incoming evacuees at the moment, the number of flights taking off from Kabul is expected to continue tapering off through next week, and many allies such as the German military have officially ceased their own air evacuation efforts. One military transport aircraft with medical evacuation personnel and special operations forces on board remains on standby in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, for at least the next 24 hours to help evacuate injured Americans out of Afghanistan, a spokesperson for the German Air Force told Air Force Times.

Per an agreement between the U.S. military and the German government, evacuees are only allowed to remain in country for 10 days before they have to move on to the United States. The average turnaround time from arrival in Ramstein to departure has been about four days, Olson said.

As more and more evacuees are coming in from Afghanistan, Ramstein must wait for the commercial aircraft to return from the States to pick up more passengers.

“We are seeing a tempo increase, with the inbound passengers and the lodging facilities going up,” Dere said. “We need to get more aircraft filled and out of here.”

Olson told reporters he couldn’t point to an exact reason why the number of evacuees has gone up in recent days. But the C-17s that are bringing Americans, Afghans and other nationals from Qatar and Kuwait are “definitely on an emergency capacity,” he said.

‘So happy’

Amongst the moments of chaos, excitement is palpable at the outgoing terminal in Hangar 5, where about 200 evacuees had just boarded a Boeing 767 bound for Dulles, and about 250 more were awaiting their turn on the next flight.

Rasool Ahmad Qaderi, 27, told reporters he is “so happy” to be finally heading to America after four days at Ramstein. Qaderi is traveling to Dulles with his family, about 16 people total, and hopes to eventually move to New York City.

They made it into the airport in Kabul using their identification cards, passports and a letter from his father, who lives in the United States, he said.

“Outside the airport, it was very dangerous,” he said. Once they were inside the airport, however, “we are safe.”

[Editor’s note: This story has been corrected to accurately reflect the origin of the Aug. 31 deadline.]