{"id":16121,"date":"2022-03-22T16:20:12","date_gmt":"2022-03-22T16:20:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/armytimes\/uncategorized\/2022\/03\/22\/armor-brigade-workload-may-dramatically-increase-if-ukraine-crisis-holds\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T01:34:18","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T01:34:18","slug":"armor-brigade-workload-may-dramatically-increase-if-ukraine-crisis-holds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/armytimes\/news\/your-army\/2022\/03\/22\/armor-brigade-workload-may-dramatically-increase-if-ukraine-crisis-holds\/","title":{"rendered":"Armor brigade workload may dramatically increase if Ukraine crisis holds"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">FORT STEWART, Ga. \u2014 Sergeant Major of the Army Michael Grinston faced a math problem when fielding questions at a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.armytimes.com\/news\/your-army\/2022\/03\/17\/families-of-troops-deployed-to-natos-flank-sound-off-in-town-hall-with-armys-top-nco\/\" target=\"_blank\">town hall for families<\/a> of deployed 3rd Infantry Division soldiers Wednesday evening: how many armored brigade combat teams does the Army have, and how many does it need?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to a force structure expert, the answer could be grim for members of the service\u2019s 11 active component and five National Guard ABCTs. If current mission requirements \u2014 totaling nearly five ABCTs worldwide \u2014 hold without a change in force structure, their operational tempo could see a major increase, said Mark F. Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIf we tried to maintain all of those&#8230;I think the [operational tempo] would be very severe,\u201d Cancian told Army Times in a phone interview.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Service officials said they\u2019re always monitoring issues like these to see how unit deployments impact the force at large. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWhile the Army continually assesses its force structure and forward posture, we have no announcements to make at this time,\u201d Army spokesman Jason Waggoner told Army Times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Army currently has just under five ABCTs committed around the world. In recent years, the Army has only needed to have three overseas at any given time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>1st ABCT, 1st Infantry Division has been in Europe <a href=\"https:\/\/www.armytimes.com\/news\/your-army\/2021\/07\/06\/two-army-brigade-deployments-to-mideast-and-europe-announced\/\" target=\"_blank\">since July 2021<\/a> as part of a now indefinitely extended Atlantic Resolve rotation.<\/li><li>3rd ABCT, 4th Infantry Division was scheduled to replace the 1st ID unit on Atlantic Resolve this spring, and <a href=\"https:\/\/english.defensie.nl\/latest\/news\/2022\/03\/12\/part-of-the-port-of-vlissingen-a-temporary-military-site\" target=\"_blank\">Netherlands military officials recently said<\/a> their equipment will arrive in Europe \u201cthe last week of March.\u201d<\/li><li>1st ABCT, 3rd Infantry Division rapidly deployed to Europe after the Ukraine invasion, falling in on the service\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.armytimes.com\/flashpoints\/2022\/03\/01\/army-activates-prepositioned-stocks-for-first-time-in-wake-of-ukraine-invasion\/\" target=\"_blank\">pre-positioned tank and Bradley stocks<\/a> in the region.<\/li><li>1st ABCT, 1st Armored Division arrived in South Korea and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dvidshub.net\/image\/7087914\/transfer-authority-2id-rotational-brigade-march-10-2022\" target=\"_blank\">uncased its colors on March 10<\/a> for a nine-month rotation.<\/li><li>Elements of the Idaho National Guard\u2019s 116th Cavalry Brigade Combat Team, including the 1st Combined Arms Battalion, 163rd Cavalry Regiment, are currently positioned <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dvidshub.net\/image\/7048409\/m2a3-bradley-fighting-vehicles-northeast-syria\" target=\"_blank\">throughout the Central Command area of responsibility<\/a> supporting Operation Spartan Shield and the counter-ISIS campaign.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The soldiers of the 3rd Infantry Division\u2019s 1st ABCT were barely home for six months from a nine-month rotation to South Korea before they were ordered to Europe in the wake of Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine. Family members were frustrated by the quick turnaround.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s not yet clear whether the Army will be asked to maintain three brigades in Europe long-term, Grinston told them. But if that becomes an enduring requirement, he said, \u201cin order to get three [ABCTs deployed], you need nine.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cSomebody has got to replace you, and somebody just came back,\u201d he said, noting the active component only has 11 ABCTs. \u201cWe have other commitments for our [ABCTs] in the world right now. You can see how this math is going, right?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Currently, Guard troops are unable to participate in the European surge. Army planners are still determining if, and under what legal mobilization authorities, part-time troops could deploy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That means the Regular Army currently has only 11 armor brigades to fulfill demand for four ABCTs \u2014 since the Guard handles the Spartan Shield mission. That could leave the service struggling to maintain the Defense Department\u2019s 1:2 minimum deployment-to-dwell time ratio, although the Korea mission does not count as deployment time and it\u2019s not yet clear whether the Europe missions will count as deployments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">More ABCTs? Forward-stationing?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to Cancian, who is also a retired Marine Corps colonel, the Army could reduce its burden by permanently stationing a brigade in Europe or creating a 12th active duty ABCT. Another option could be to reduce the service\u2019s global commitments \u2014 such as ending the CENTCOM armor mission \u2014 he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"4005\" height=\"2670\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/7048409.jpg.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-36618\" srcset=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/7048409.jpg.jpg 4005w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/7048409.jpg.jpg?resize=300,200 300w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/7048409.jpg.jpg?resize=768,512 768w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/7048409.jpg.jpg?resize=1024,683 1024w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/7048409.jpg.jpg?resize=1536,1024 1536w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/7048409.jpg.jpg?resize=2048,1365 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 4005px) 100vw, 4005px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Soldiers from 1\/163rd Combined Arms Battalion, unload M2A3 Bradley Fighting Vehicles off a U.S. Air Force C-17 Globemaster in northeast Syria on Jan. 31, 2022. (Army\/Spc. William Gore)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Army once had as many as seven armor brigades in Europe at the height of the Cold War, but they were gradually drawn down, and the final Europe-stationed armor brigade was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stripes.com\/us-army-s-last-tanks-depart-from-germany-1.214977\" target=\"_blank\">inactivated in 2013<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe pretty obvious option would be to make one of the brigades [in Europe] permanent,\u201d Cancian said. The drawback is the cost of building \u201ca U.S. base with all of the support activities \u2014 families, the housing and everything else.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although there are \u201ca lot of downsides\u201d to that approach, Cancian added. \u201cWe can\u2019t ignore the fact that this could be a very long-term competition and rotational units [aren\u2019t] going to be adequate.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cancian noted that countries like Poland and Lithuania have been soliciting a permanent U.S. armor presence and would likely help subsidize the cost of infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The force structure expert also explained that there are three ways to create an ABCT: getting Congress to increase the Army\u2019s personnel by enough to create a new brigade, cutting personnel in various corners of the service to free up authorized end strength to stand up a new ABCT, or convert an existing infantry or Stryker BCT into an ABCT.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Army has converted <a href=\"https:\/\/www.armytimes.com\/news\/your-army\/2019\/01\/02\/new-in-2019-from-tanks-to-strykers-major-brigade-combat-team-conversions-are-coming-this-year\/\" target=\"_blank\">three BCTs to ABCTs<\/a> since 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But none of these options are cheap, Cancian said, and he thinks the service is unlikely to get more personnel in the fiscal 2023 budget. Nor does he think the Army will be able to find enough personnel to cut from existing authorizations in order to form a 12th ABCT.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That leaves conversion as the most likely path, in his eyes, should the Army not want to forward-station a brigade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ultimately, the issue depends on whether the armor brigades are needed in Europe long-term, and if the budget math will change because of the crisis. Cancian pointed to the upcoming release of the fiscal 2023 budget plan as an important indicator of the service\u2019s intentions for addressing the potential ABCT shortage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWe\u2019ll see what comes out of the [FY23] budget and the associated five-year plan&#8230;[previously,] many strategists would reduce the tank and Bradley programs to pay for other ones,\u201d he said. \u201cIn the budget now, I would expect that&#8230;they would compete relative [to other programs] much better than they would have&#8230;a month ago. We\u2019ll get some insights.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i>Editor\u2019s note: This story was updated March 22, 2022, at 3 p.m. with a statement from an Army spokesman.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If the Army&#8217;s current requirements in Europe stick around, the service may have to tweak force 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By:"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Armor brigade workload may dramatically increase if Ukraine crisis holds - Army Times<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"If the Army&#039;s current requirements in Europe stick around, the service may have to tweak force structure.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Armor brigade workload may dramatically increase if Ukraine crisis holds\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"If the Army&#039;s current requirements in Europe stick around, the service may have to tweak force structure.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" 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