{"id":22885,"date":"2020-11-26T15:55:15","date_gmt":"2020-11-26T15:55:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/armytimes\/uncategorized\/2020\/11\/26\/why-now-dismay-as-us-considers-troop-pullout-from-somalia\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T06:05:07","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T06:05:07","slug":"why-now-dismay-as-us-considers-troop-pullout-from-somalia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/armytimes\/flashpoints\/2020\/11\/26\/why-now-dismay-as-us-considers-troop-pullout-from-somalia\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Why now?\u2019 Dismay as US considers troop pullout from Somalia"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

NAIROBI, Kenya \u2014 No country has been involved in Somalia\u2019s future as much as the United States. Now the Trump administration is thinking of withdrawing the several hundred U.S. military troops<\/a> from the Horn of Africa nation at what some experts call the worst possible time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Three decades of chaos, from warlords to al-Qaida affiliate al-Shabab<\/a> to the emergence of an Islamic State-linked group, have ripped apart the country<\/a> that only in the past few years has begun to find its footing. The U.S. Embassy returned to Somalia just last year, 28 years after diplomats and staffers fled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Somalia faces a tense election season that begins in the next few weeks to decide the presidency and parliament. United Nations experts say al-Shabab, supporting its 5,000 to 10,000 fighters on a rich diet of extorting businesses and civilians, is improving its bomb-making skills. And an ever bigger military force, the African Union\u2019s 19,000-strong AMISOM, has begun its own withdrawal from a country whose forces are widely considered unready to assume full responsibility for security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is not clear whether President Donald Trump will order the withdrawal of the some 700 U.S. military forces from Somalia, following his orders for troop reductions in Afghanistan and Iraq<\/a>, or whether the reported urge will pass before he leaves office in January. But the idea is taken seriously, even as U.S. drone strikes are expected to continue<\/a> in Somalia against al-Shabab and IS fighters from neighboring Djibouti and Kenya \u2014 where al-Shabab carried out a deadly attack against U.S. forces<\/a> early this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. Africa Command has seen a \u201cdefinitive shift\u201d this year in al-Shabab\u2019s focus to attack U.S. interests<\/a> in the region, a new report by the Department of Defense inspector general said Wednesday \u2014 and the command says al-Shabab is Africa\u2019s most \u201cdangerous\u201d and \u201cimminent\u201d threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s what\u2019s at stake:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Counterterrorism<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe first thing \u2026 it\u2019s disastrous for Somalia\u2019s security sector, it just causes that first panic reaction: You know, why now?\u201d said Samira Gaid, a Somali national security specialist who served as senior security adviser to the prime minister and special adviser to the head of AMISOM. \u201cEspecially since over the past three and half years, in particular, the security sector really improved, and we tried to work closely with\u201d the U.S., she told The Associated Press.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
U.S. Army Spc. Dominic Deitrick, assigned to the 1-186th Infantry Battalion, Task Force Guardian, Combined Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa, seen through a night-vision device, provides security for a 75th Expeditionary Airlift Squadron (EAS) C-130J Super Hercules during unloading and loading operations Friday, June 12, 2020 at an unidentified location in Somalia. No country has been involved in Somalia’s future as much as the United States but now the Trump administration is thinking of withdrawing the several hundred U.S. military troops from the nation at what some experts call the worst possible time. (Tech. Sgt. Christopher Ruano\/Combined Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa via AP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Recent progress includes a \u201cwar council\u201d between the U.S. and Somali governments, she said, where the U.S. helps to draw up military plans. \u201cWe call them Somali-led operations, but really the U.S. is hand-holding us through it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. military also trains Somalia\u2019s elite Danab special forces<\/a> that now number around 1,000, and is providing Danab with air cover and intelligence, Gaid said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDanab was expanding, that\u2019s why this is so shocking,\u201d she said. \u201cIs it possible to move forward with that plan now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Danab units are now operational in four of Somalia\u2019s five member states, the U.S. military says, and they conducted about 80 percent of the Somali national army\u2019s offensive forces in the quarter ending Sept. 30 and \u201cnearly all\u201d operations against al-Shabab.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Danab forces also serve as a model for how the rest of Somali military forces can develop to be \u201cmore meritocracy and less clan-focused,\u201d said Omar Mahmood, an analyst with the International Crisis Group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The loss of U.S. forces is widely seen as a gain for al-Shabab, and for the far smaller presence of hundreds of IS-affiliated fighters in Somalia\u2019s north. \u201cFrom the al-Shabab perspective, they just need to hold out,\u201d Mahmood said, and they might even ask themselves what need there is for any potential Taliban-style negotiations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Al-Shabab\u2019s messaging has always stressed the extremist group\u2019s staying power, national security specialist Gaid said: \u201cThese external forces will always leave.\u201d A U.S. withdrawal will play into that narrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Camp
A flag-raising ceremony is held Aug. 26, 2019, at Camp Simba, Manda Bay, Kenya. (Staff Sgt. Lexie West\/U.S. Air Force via AP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Gaid said she doesn\u2019t see any other country stepping into the U.S. military\u2019s role, though a withdrawal would open space for powers like Russia and China. Somalia also has some 1,500 special forces that have been trained by Turkish troops, she said, but \u201cthey don\u2019t benefit from Turkish advisers on the ground.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Security<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Without U.S. forces, al-Shabab \u201cwill find it easier to overrun AMISOM, let alone the Somali national army,\u201d Vanda Felbab-Brown, co-director of the African Security Initiative at the Brookings Institution, told an online event this week. And with neighboring Ethiopia\u2019s conflict increasing pressure to withdraw more Ethiopian forces from Somalia, a U.S. troop withdrawal \u201cis really just the worst time.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The support that U.S. forces give AMISOM is \u201chuge,\u201d Gaid said, including as a key interlocutor with Somali forces. And with AMISOM also drawing down by the end of next year, \u201cit\u2019s a tricky time.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. has said implementation of the plan for Somali forces to take over the country\u2019s security next year is \u201cbadly off track,\u201d said the new report by the Department of Defense inspector general.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Somali forces cannot contain the al-Shabab threat on its own, the report said. They still rely on the international community for financial support, and yet they \u201csometimes go unpaid for months.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
U.S. Army Spc. Andrew Hatten, infantryman, assigned to Task Force Guardian, 41st Infantry Brigade Combat Team (IBCT), 1-186th Infantry Battalion, Oregon National Guard, provides base security while on watch in Somalia, on December 3, 2019. The 41st IBCT provides base security and force protection for Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa personnel and partner U.S. forces deployed in Somalia. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Nick Kibbey)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Maybe a U.S. withdrawal would lead the AMISOM force to adjust its own withdrawal timeline \u201cmore realistically,\u201d Mahmood said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. has been the most engaged security partner in Somalia \u201cwilling to get down and dirty,\u201d he added. But no other country appears to have the willingness to replace what U.S. forces are doing on the ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And a withdrawal of both the U.S. and AMISOM would risk leaving the impression that \u201cSomalia increasingly can rely less and less on external security partners,\u201d Mahmood said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Political stability<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Somalia is on the brink of elections, with the parliamentary vote scheduled in December and the presidential one in February. What had meant to be the country\u2019s first one-person-one-vote election in decades instead remains limited by disputes between the federal government and regional ones \u2014 which the U.S. has said also weakens command and control of Somali forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At least keep U.S. forces in Somalia until after the elections, Felbab-Brown wrote this week, warning of possible post-election violence or al-Shabab taking advantage of any chaos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even though U.S. forces don\u2019t provide election security, \u201cour problem is, with the U.S. focused on a drawdown of troops, it would not be focused on how the elections are going politically,\u201d Gaid said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. has been one of the most vocal actors on Somalia\u2019s election process, she said. \u201cWe were all expecting after November that the U.S. would be clear on a lot of stuff. Now it seems we have to wait.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
U.S. Army Spc. Kevin Martin, junior sniper, assigned to the 1-186th Infantry Battalion, Task Force Guardian, Combined Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa, provides security for a 75th Expeditionary Airlift Squadron (EAS) C-130J Super Hercules during unloading operations at an unidentified location in Somalia Sunday, June 28, 2020. No country has been involved in Somalia’s future as much as the United States but now the Trump administration is thinking of withdrawing the several hundred U.S. military troops from the nation at what some experts call the worst possible time. (Tech. Sgt. Christopher Ruano\/Combined Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa via AP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

No country has been involved in Somalia’s future as much as the United States. 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