{"id":34908,"date":"2021-11-20T23:58:55","date_gmt":"2021-11-20T23:58:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/armytimes\/uncategorized\/2021\/11\/20\/russia-preparing-to-attack-ukraine-by-late-january-ukraine-defense-intelligence-agency-chief\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T07:01:02","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T07:01:02","slug":"russia-preparing-to-attack-ukraine-by-late-january-ukraine-defense-intelligence-agency-chief","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/armytimes\/flashpoints\/2021\/11\/20\/russia-preparing-to-attack-ukraine-by-late-january-ukraine-defense-intelligence-agency-chief\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia preparing to attack Ukraine by late January: Ukraine defense intelligence agency chief"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Russia has more than 92,000 troops amassed around Ukraine\u2019s borders<\/a> and is preparing for an attack by the end of January or beginning of February, the head of Ukraine\u2019s defense intelligence agency told Military Times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such an attack would likely involve airstrikes, artillery and armor attacks followed by airborne assaults in the east, amphibious assaults in Odessa and Mariupul and a smaller incursion through neighboring Belarus, Ukraine Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov<\/a> told Military Times Saturday morning in an exclusive interview.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia\u2019s large-scale Zapad 21 military exercise earlier this year proved, for instance, that they can drop upwards of 3,500 airborne and special operations troops at once, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attack Russia is preparing, said Budanov, would be far more devastating than anything before seen in the conflict that began in 2014 that has seen some 14,000 Ukrainians killed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The Ukraine military’s assessment of a how a potential attack by Russia would play out. (Courtesy of Ukraine military).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Speaking to the Washington Post on Friday, Ukraine\u2019s new Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov<\/a> said it was unclear whether Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet decided to attack<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Russia is building capacity to do so, Budanov told Military Times, increasing troop levels and weapons systems in occupied Crimea and staging systems like Iskandar short-range ballistic missile systems and other weapons elsewhere near the border. And he scoffed at suggestions that the brutal weather conditions during that time of the year would dissuade the Russians from attacking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt is no problem for us and the Russians,\u201d Budanov said of fighting in the frigid weather.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Any such attack, however, would first follow a series of psychological operations currently underway designed to destabilize Ukraine and undermine its ability to fight, said Budanov, speaking through an interpreter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey want to foment unrest, through protests and meetings, that show the people are against the government,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those efforts include ongoing anti-COVID-19 vaccination protests that Budanov said have been organized by Russia, which is also trying to stoke unrest related to the economy and energy supplies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, Budanov said Russia is trying to whip up anti-government sentiment over an incident dubbed \u201cWagnergate<\/a>\u201d \u2014 a controversy involving about 30 members of the Russian private military group responsible for attacks inside Ukraine. The Wagner group members, who made their way to Belarus, were supposed to be brought back to Ukraine to be detained, but instead wound up being sent to Russia with the help of the Belarus KGB, Budanov said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian psychological operations are being used to show \u201cour authorities betrayed the people,\u201d said Budanov.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ongoing border conflict between Poland and Belarus, which is trying to send refugees into Europe through Poland\u2019s border, is part of that effort, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey want to make the situation inside the country more and more dangerous and hard and make a situation where we have to change the government,\u201d said Budanov. \u201cIf they can\u2019t do that, than military troops will do their job.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Budanov said U.S. and Ukraine intelligence assessments about the timing of a Russian attack are very similar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOur evaluations are almost the same as our American colleagues,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\t