{"id":43875,"date":"2018-01-12T18:18:44","date_gmt":"2018-01-12T18:18:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/armytimes\/uncategorized\/2018\/01\/12\/nuclear-posture-review-draft-leaks-new-weapons-coming-amid-strategic-shift\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T23:08:30","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T23:08:30","slug":"nuclear-posture-review-draft-leaks-new-weapons-coming-amid-strategic-shift","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/armytimes\/news\/pentagon-congress\/2018\/01\/12\/nuclear-posture-review-draft-leaks-new-weapons-coming-amid-strategic-shift\/","title":{"rendered":"Nuclear Posture Review draft leaks; new weapons coming amid strategic shift"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"wp-block-smg-jwplayer-video\"><atype-video-jwplayer nostick=\"true\" playlisturl=\"https:\/\/cdn.jwplayer.com\/v2\/playlists\/fCzRqMW8?tags=2d27d933-e031-4805-8aaa-2db7d69172e6\" poster=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/video-poster-2d27d933-e031-4805-8aaa-2db7d69172e6.jpg\" aspectratio=\"16 \/ 9\" mute autostart=\"false\"><\/atype-video-jwplayer><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Get a look at Boeing\u2019s bid to replace the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile as part of the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent program.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">WASHINGTON \u2014 A leaked copy of the Pentagon\u2019s upcoming Nuclear Posture Review calls for the development of a new low-yield warhead for America\u2019s submarines, the creation of a new sub-launched, nuclear-capable cruise missile and a shift in America\u2019s stance on when nuclear weapons may be used.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A draft of the review was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.huffingtonpost.com\/entry\/trump-nuclear-posture-review-2018_us_5a4d4773e4b06d1621bce4c5?q4\">posted online Friday<\/a> by the Huffington Post. The Nuclear Posture Review, or NPR, is scheduled to be formally released in February, and so the document may change somewhat between now and then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a statement, the Pentagon did not deny that the draft is authentic, instead saying \u201cOur discussion has been robust and several draft have been written. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cHowever, the Nuclear Posture Review has not been completed and will ultimately be reviewed and approved by the President and the Secretary of Defense,\u201d the statement read. \u201cAs a general practice, we do not discuss pre-decisional, draft copies of strategies and reviews.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since his election, President Donald Trump has shown an interest in the nuclear arsenal, complaining it had grown too small and pledging to increase the size and capabilities of America\u2019s nukes \u2014 much to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/pentagon\/2017\/08\/09\/fact-checking-trumps-tweet-on-the-us-nuclear-arsenal\/\" title=\"\" class=\"\">dismay of nonproliferation<\/a> advocates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unsurprisingly, the draft reaffirms the need for a full nuclear triad \u2014 the mix of air-, ground- and sea-based nuclear weapons that has formed the backbone of America\u2019s deterrence posture for decades. But the document appears to be in line, at least somewhat, with Trump\u2019s public desires.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/naval\/2018\/01\/12\/russias-nuclear-underwater-drone-is-real-and-in-the-nuclear-posture-review\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"212\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Status6-2015.png.png?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Russia\u2019s nuclear underwater drone is real and in the Nuclear Posture Review<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">A draft of the Pentagon\u2019s Nuclear Posture Review confirms the existence of an underwater nuclear drone made and operated by Russia, a capability the U.S. Defense Department had not previously publicly acknowledged.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Low-yield changes<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For months there have been rumors in the nuclear community that the NPR would feature a push to lower-yield nuclear weapons \u2014 which already exist on the W80 and B61 nuclear bombs. Based on the draft of the NPR, the Pentagon intends to either modify or create new low-yield nuclear warheads for submarine-launched ballistic missiles, which is not a current capability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The NPR justifies this as needing to counter the belief among potential adversaries, including Russia, that the U.S. nuclear arsenal is too devastating to ever be used. Offering lower-yield nuclear options, the authors argue, will \u201cenhance deterrence by denying potential adversaries any mistaken confidence that limited nuclear employment can provide a useful advantage over the United States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Peter Huessy, a defense consultant who runs his own company, believes the Pentagon is justified in moving in this direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/space\/2017\/09\/22\/4-alternatives-to-the-pentagons-new-icbm-modernization-plan\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"192\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/635851875797831385-2246982jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">4 alternatives to the Pentagon\u2019s new ICBM modernization plan<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">The Pentagon wants a new ICBM, but it should consider all its options as it proceeds, a top budget analyst says.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIf deterrence is holding at risk what the bad guy values, why is it a bad idea to be able to destroy that military industrial or command authority target as best you can in the most flexible way?\u201d he said. \u201cOtherwise one has to argue any retaliatory use of nuclear weapons of any number or kind has to lead to the use of all weapons and Armageddon&#8230; Otherwise you are saying any use by the Russians of one nuclear weapon must require an all-out retaliatory strike by the USA.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIf an all-out response isn\u2019t credible, then having low-yield, smaller weapons makes sense because it\u2019s a better and more credible deterrent,\u201d Huessy added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the nonproliferation community worries that creating lower-yield nuclear weapons, which are still capable of devastating a city, simply increases the inventive to use such weaponry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, is more sanguine about the change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI don\u2019t think this makes nuclear weapons more usable. On the contrary, I don\u2019t think reducing yield does anything to make our nuclear threats more credible,\u201d he said. \u201cThis is a political problem; it does not have a technical solution. So giving the W76 a dual-a-yield option is pointless, not the end of the world.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Instead, the problem Lewis sees is in the thinking that would lead to the warhead change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe theory is that the Russians might do a little nuclear strike and we would want to do a little nuclear strike back,\u201d Lewis said. \u201cThe problem is that the reasoning that leads to this proposal and that is found elsewhere in the document about nuclear deterrence is so shoddy that I worry they don\u2019t have very accurate views about the world in which deterrence is supposed to function.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Cruise missile and policy shifts<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a reversal from the 2010 NPR, under which the U.S. planned to retire its sea-based cruise missile, the Pentagon will pursue a modern, nuclear-armed, submarine-launched cruise missile, or SLCM.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How to get there, however, is an open question. The department is planning an analysis of alternatives for the \u201crapid development of a modern SLCM,\u201d which Todd Harrison, an analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, thinks needs to be wide-ranging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIf they do this right, it would be so open as to include everything from modifying Tomahawks, to bringing them back in a nuclear configuration, to modifying the Tomahawk replacement missile that they\u2019d already been working on or developing a custom-designed missile,\u201d Harrison said. \u201cThat\u2019s a huge range of costs that you could consider in an AoA.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/digital-show-dailies\/air-force-association\/2017\/09\/19\/new-nuclear-cruise-missile-program-appears-safe-going-forward\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"199\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/alcm-b52-minot.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">New nuclear cruise missile program appears safe going forward<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">Gen. Robin Rand, the head of U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command, told reporters Sept. 19 that he is \u201cvery confident\u201d that the Long Range Stand-Off weapon (LRSO) will be supported when the department\u2019s Nuclear Posture Review is completed, adding that he sees widespread support in Congress for the weapon.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For obvious reasons, a new custom-designed weapon would be the most expensive option, but the cost associated with certifying a nuclear weapon means there is no \u201ccheap way\u201d of doing this kind of development, Harrison said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To avoid a capability gap while that new system is developed, the U.S. will \u201cmodify a small number of existing [sub-launched ballistic missile] warheads to provide low-yield options.\u201d The Department of defense and the National Nuclear Security Demonstration, or NNSA, will develop a low-yield SLBM warhead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Policy shift<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From a policy perspective, the NPR is notable for its declaration that nuclear weapons could be deployed in response to \u201csignificant non-nuclear strategic attacks,\u201d which could include attacks on the infrastructure, civilian populations, or command and control assets of the U.S. and its allies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That is a significant departure from previous U.S. stances that nuclear weapons are, essentially, a last resort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kingston Reif of the Arms Control Association worries that the language is \u201cdangerously permissive,\u201d given how wide-ranging the definition of a \u201csignificant non-nuclear strategic attack\u201d is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cFor example, does Russia\u2019s interference in the 2016 election constitute such an attack?\u201d he asked. \u201cThe language is so ambiguous as to be almost meaningless. As such it lacks credibility.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Speaking Thursday evening, Ernest Moniz, who served as Secretary of Energy from 2013-2017, also raised concerns about the idea that a nuclear response could be used in cases of, say, a cyber attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe entire broadening if the landscape for nuclear deterrence is a very fundamental step in the wrong direction, a really bad one,\u201d Moniz said at an event hosted by the Center for Strategic and Intentional Studies. \u201cI think the idea of nuclear deterrence of cyber attacks, broadly, certainly does not make any sense.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Cost prohibitive?<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The big question hanging over any new technology laid out in the NPR is one of cost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to a recent government estimate, the Pentagon is set to spend around $1.2 trillion over the next 30 years to recapitalize the nuclear arsenal, including delivery systems, warheads and modernization. And those costs are going to eat into the Pentagon\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/breaking-news\/2017\/10\/31\/americas-nuclear-weapons-will-cost-12-trillion-over-the-next-30-years\/\" title=\"\" class=\"\" target=\"_blank\">overall budget<\/a> at a time when a large number of defense modernization projects are also coming due.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Funding for a new low-yield warhead would run through the Department of Energy\u2019s budget, as warhead programs are managed by the NNSA. But those funds are still restricted under the budget caps, which means the money would need to come from the overall defense pot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So how much could a new warhead design, or even just a modification of an existing system, cost? That\u2019s where it gets tricky.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2016, the Pentagon\u2019s office of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation was trying to find a solid cost estimate for designing and building the Air Force\u2019s new intercontinental ballistic missile design. But researchers found it was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/space\/2016\/11\/04\/labor-costs-data-questions-driving-icbm-replacement-cost-estimate\/\" title=\"\" class=\"\" target=\"_blank\">almost impossible<\/a> to nail down a hard number because it had been so long since America designed something similar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Harrison believes the same challenge applies for a new warhead design.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI don\u2019t think you can come up with a cost estimate that you can have much confidence in, period. It\u2019s been so long since we did it,\u201d he said. \u201cSo that\u2019s going to be an unknown cost for quite a while. There is tremendous uncertainty in the cost estimate for this new warhead.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Which maybe the best way to sum up this draft of the NPR \u2015 policy shift aside, it is unclear how much of it would get paid for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt is a wish list with a healthy dose of propaganda,\u201d Lewis said of the overall document. \u201cBut a wish list can\u2019t implement itself, and simply asserting it\u2019s affordable doesn\u2019t make it so.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The draft reaffirms the need for a full nuclear triad and appears to be in line, at least somewhat, with President Trump\u2019s public desires.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":29338,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":68,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[100,12,25,68],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3323],"class_list":["post-43875","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news-roundup","category-news","category-newsletters","category-pentagon-congress"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"6PVUDWTWNREJTLAW2PCF5AFUVY","arc_canonical_url":"\/space\/2018\/01\/12\/nuclear-posture-review-draft-leaks-new-weapons-coming-amid-strategic-shift\/","remove_feature_photo":true,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Nuclear Posture Review draft leaks; 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