{"id":49130,"date":"2023-03-02T13:05:19","date_gmt":"2023-03-02T13:05:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/armytimes\/uncategorized\/2023\/03\/02\/junior-nco-promotions-have-collapsed-heres-the-data-and-why\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T04:10:42","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T04:10:42","slug":"junior-nco-promotions-have-collapsed-heres-the-data-and-why","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/armytimes\/news\/your-army\/2023\/03\/02\/junior-nco-promotions-have-collapsed-heres-the-data-and-why\/","title":{"rendered":"Junior NCO promotions have collapsed \u2014 here\u2019s the data, and why"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Promotable specialists, corporals and sergeants across the Army eagerly anticipate the release of promotion point cut-off scores each month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s understandable. Earning enough points for promotion to sergeant or staff sergeant means more pay, more responsibility and more career opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rank has its privileges, too. In most units, earning your stripes or first rocker means moving out of the barracks \u2014 many of which suffer from mold and maintenance problems \u2014 and escaping mandatory meal deductions from paychecks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the past three months\u2019 cut-offs combined for the lowest quarterly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.armytimes.com\/news\/your-army\/2021\/08\/12\/inside-the-armys-enlisted-overhaul-why-your-next-promotion-may-take-longer\/\" target=\"_blank\">promotion rates<\/a> for both sergeant and staff sergeant since 2019, according to an Army Times analysis of Human Resources Command data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the first quarter of 2019, nearly three-in-ten eligible specialists or corporals made sergeant, and about one-in-five eligible sergeants pinned staff sergeant. Four years later, rates have plummeted: quarter one of 2023 had approximately a 4.13% promotion rate to sergeant and a 2.33% rate to staff sergeant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Quarterly active-duty Army promotion rates, 2019-2023\" aria-label=\"Split Bars\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-UxNEl\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/UxNEl\/1\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"638\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var a in e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][a]+\"px\"}}}))}();\n<\/script>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Promotion rates for sergeant and staff sergeant depend on a multitude of factors \u2014 how many soldiers are eligible, how many vacancies the Army has, and more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The service calls such promotions \u201csemi-centralized.\u201d To become eligible, a soldier needs to meet minimum time-in-grade and time-in-service requirements and pass a local promotion board.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then, Human Resources Command calculates each eligible soldier\u2019s promotion points, which depend on things like awards, fitness, training, civilian education and more. Officials compare the population data against how many new sergeants and staff sergeants a given career field needs and calculate a promotion point \u201ccut-off score\u201d for each military occupational specialty and eligibility tier that will promote enough (but not too many) soldiers to meet the Army\u2019s needs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This happens monthly. Those who have more points than their job and eligibility zone\u2019s cut-off score promote; those who have fewer don\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s a math problem, and one designed to suit the service\u2019s needs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why are Army promotion rates low in 2023?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A combination of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.armytimes.com\/news\/your-army\/2022\/10\/17\/temporary-promotions-for-enlisted-soldiers-continuing-into-fiscal-2023\/\" target=\"_blank\">policy decisions<\/a>, pressure to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.armytimes.com\/news\/your-army\/2022\/10\/10\/an-end-strength-crisis-is-here-for-the-army\/\" target=\"_blank\">keep the ranks filled<\/a> during a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.armytimes.com\/news\/your-army\/2023\/02\/10\/army-launches-another-performance-bonus-program-for-recruiters\/\" target=\"_blank\">recruiting<\/a> crisis and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.armytimes.com\/news\/your-army\/2023\/01\/23\/health-benefits-interrupted-for-17000-soldiers-by-hr-platform-launch\/\" target=\"_blank\">difficulties with data transfers<\/a> in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.armytimes.com\/news\/your-army\/2023\/01\/25\/troops-cant-get-discharge-forms-or-retire-due-to-armys-hr-transition\/\" target=\"_blank\">Army\u2019s new human resources platform<\/a> have made the math frustrating for junior troops in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Army personnel directorate spokesperson Lt. Col. Joseph Payton answered questions from Army Times about the falling rates and why they were occurring. He confirmed the accuracy of Army Times\u2019 data analysis, but cautioned that the data \u201cdoesn\u2019t project what the Army will do with future promotions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One policy impacting promotion rates \u2014 a temporary exception to a policy allowing otherwise-eligible enlisted soldiers to receive temporary promotions before completing their required professional military education \u2014 \u201censured the highest quality Soldier[s] remained eligible for promotion\u201d in the wake of backlogs at schools caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and a transition to a train-before-selection model, Payton said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Officials expanded the education exception, which permanently applies to pregnant and deployed soldiers, to include all enlisted troops beginning January 2021. That move expanded the pool of eligible troops, putting downward pressure on the selection rates. The service recently renewed the policy exception, according to a memorandum obtained by Army Times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The service\u2019s reliance on retention to maintain its end strength in the face of abysmal recruiting numbers means fewer mid-career positions are open, too. At first, this wasn\u2019t an issue, a former top human resources official told Army Times last year \u2014 the service expanded its staff sergeant ranks in recent years, meaning there were enough jobs to avoid a demographic glut backing up promotions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the combination of reduced recruiting and \u201cretaining mid-grade NCOs does limit, to a degree, the mid-grade promotion demand for certain [jobs],\u201d acknowledged Payton, who argued high retention rates allow the service to avoid losing training investments it\u2019s made on experienced soldiers. \u201cThis is normal and healthy for sustaining and growing a professional NCO Corps.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">More nebulous is the impact of the service\u2019s new human resources platform, the Integrated Personnel and Pay System-Army, which launched Army-wide in January. Users in social media forums such as Army Reddit <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reddit.com\/r\/army\/comments\/11d91a1\/wtf_hrc\/\" target=\"_blank\">reported seeing their points drop<\/a> after the platform\u2019s launch, and others asked about them in a Feb. 23 town hall event with platform developers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The shortfall was so widespread that the service issued a military personnel message detailing workaround instructions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some problems lie with the platform. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Its \u201cknown issues\u201d page detains a series of data errors that resulted in promotion point shortfalls \u2014 fitness tests, correspondence courses, and graduation honors at military schools initially incorrectly fed into the new promotion points system. The Army has resolved many of these complications, <a href=\"https:\/\/ipps-a.army.mil\/wp-content\/uploads\/IPPSA-Known-Issues_web_20230228.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">the page claims<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Army is blaming other problems on users, though. Points for weapons qualification, initially impacted by a data feed issue, now require many units to go into the service\u2019s training management system and edit past entries. Other mysterious drops in points are due to missing awards, civilian education and other factors requiring units to submit fixes on an individual basis, according to the personnel message.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Those soldiers whose points required correction can breathe a sigh of relief once fixed, though.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Payton said the Army is committed to ensuring troops receiving points corrections \u201cwho would have met a past promotion point cut-off score are promoted with a retroactive effective date including all pay and allowances.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The personnel directorate spokesperson also suggested that promotion rates may increase in the coming months if the Army\u2019s needs do, describing them as \u201cdynamic...depending on the requirements for each [job] and grade.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Promotion rates for sergeants and staff sergeants are in freefall, so Army Times crunched the numbers and found out 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