{"id":53639,"date":"2021-09-29T17:17:06","date_gmt":"2021-09-29T17:17:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/armytimes\/uncategorized\/2021\/09\/29\/why-bagram-wouldnt-have-made-a-difference-and-more-about-the-afghanistan-exit-plan\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T08:05:17","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T08:05:17","slug":"why-bagram-wouldnt-have-made-a-difference-and-more-about-the-afghanistan-exit-plan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/armytimes\/news\/pentagon-congress\/2021\/09\/29\/why-bagram-wouldnt-have-made-a-difference-and-more-about-the-afghanistan-exit-plan\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Bagram wouldn\u2019t have made a difference, and more about the Afghanistan exit plan"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Senior military leaders took to Capitol Hill for the second day in a row on Wednesday, to answer questions from lawmakers about what has, by turns, been referred to both as a catastrophe and an unprecedented success in the final days of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/news\/pentagon-congress\/2021\/09\/24\/us-wont-be-asking-taliban-permission-to-strike-terror-groups-in-afghanistan\/\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. presence in Afghanistan<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While leaders reiterated and lawmakers concurred that the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/breaking-news\/2021\/09\/17\/pentagon-reverses-itself-calls-deadly-kabul-strike-an-error\/\" target=\"_blank\">non-combatant evacuation<\/a> from Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, the largest ever undertaken with more than 124,000 civilians rescued, was a logistical success, the overall withdrawal left much to be desired.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prepared to field the questions, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin included a prebuttal in his prepared remarks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cSo let me take each in turn,\u201d he began, then listing off criticisms: That the U.S. shouldn\u2019t have closed Bagram Air Base before the ultimate exit and that the civilian evacuation process should have begun sooner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Elsewhere, lawmakers questioned whether troops should have extended their time in Kabul in order to evacuate more American citizens and Afghan allies, and what Afghanistan would look like today if President Joe Biden had taken their advice to keep 2,500 troops in the country. This is how senior leaders handled the discussion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Bagram<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After the fall of Kabul on Aug. 15, a chorus of critics questioned why the U.S. had closed its most strategically important base in Afghanistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The decision to close it was made following an order to bring troop levels down to 650, Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, U.S. Central Command\u2019s chief, said. That number was intended to be enough to guard the U.S. embassy in Kabul, and that troop level wouldn\u2019t have been enough to defend Bagram.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWell, in order to hold Bagram, we might have needed to probably push in 5,000 more troops on the ground,\u201d he said. \u201cSo that would have been a significant decision to hold Bagram, and we were under the direction to go to zero. So it would\u2019ve required a basic policy directive to change the plan. If you\u2019re going to go to zero, and you\u2019re going to keep enough forces to hold your embassy in the airfield, it is incompatible to hold any other base anywhere in the country.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And while the U.S. could have surged troops to hold Bagram, strategically, it wouldn\u2019t have done much to ease the withdrawal. Bagram is 40 miles outside of Kabul, on a single highway, neither a feasible evacuation point nor useful to provide protection to an evacuation in Kabul.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cLet me just further add that I did not see any tactical utility to Bagram,\u201d McKenzie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Evacuations<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Critics of the drawdown have raised questions as to why the State Department did not start facilitating evacuations of Americans and Afghan allies in the spring, while the Defense Department was making plans to remove troops and possibly undertake a non-combatant evacuation, if necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cOn the issue of why we didn\u2019t bring out civilians and [Special Immigrant Visa holders] sooner,\u201d Austin said. \u201cAgain, the call on how to do that and when to do it is, really, a State Department call.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the core, administration officials were heeding then-Afghan President Ashraf Ghani\u2019s warning that a mass evacuation would lead to a widespread loss of confidence in his administration, possibly accelerating the Taliban takeover.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cBut again, we provided our input, and we certainly would have liked to have seen it go faster or sooner \u2015but, but again, they had a number of things to think through as well,\u201d Austin said.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/militarytimes\/news\/your-military\/2021\/09\/28\/senior-leaders-didnt-want-to-leave-afghanistan\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"162\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/6789604-1.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Senior leaders didn\u2019t want to leave Afghanistan<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">Senior military leaders admitted for the first time that President Biden didn&#039;t take their advice.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Extending the deadline<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When the U.S. launched a non-combatant evacuation on Aug. 16, the day after the Taliban walked into Kabul, the clock started on two weeks to get as many people out as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite optimism from Biden that every American would get out, the State Department has since conceded that roughly 100 American citizens and permanent residents are still in Kabul.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So what were the risks of staying longer?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cAnd as for the mission\u2019s end, my judgment remains, that extending beyond the end of August would have greatly imperiled our people in our mission,\u201d Austin told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday. \u201cThe Taliban made clear that their cooperation would end on the first of September. And as you know, [we] faced grave and growing threats from ISIS-K. Staying longer than we did would have made it even more dangerous for our people, and would not have significantly changed the number of evacuees we could get out.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The situation on the ground in Afghanistan depended heavily on the Taliban\u2019s holding off any attacks against the U.S., as it had been since early 2020. But senior leaders have said they were not confident that the U.S. could negotiate an extension to that ceasefire, and that it might have been open season on the evacuation effort after Aug. 31.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Keeping 2,500<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Over the course of the two hearings, much was made of both Milley\u2019s and McKenzie\u2019s recommendations to Biden in early 2021 that the U.S. maintain its force of 2,500 train-advise-assist troops on the ground in Afghanistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tuesday marked the first time they admitted publicly that the president had disregarded their advice, but further discussions during both hearings fleshed out what the plan would have looked like.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Though it was his advice, Milley conceded that those 2,500 would have been at \u201cgreat risk.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI have no doubt that the Taliban would have reinitiated combat operations or attacks on U.S. forces, and 2,500 would have been an increased risk,\u201d he said. \u201cWhat\u2019s the value of keeping the 2,500? It has as much to do with the morale, and the keeping advisors with them, and having the morale of the Afghan security forces, and demonstrating confidence in the government.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And while he shared Milley\u2019s recommendation to keep 2,500 in the country, McKenzie conceded that such a level would only be sustainable if the Taliban continued to hold off, and that blowing the Aug. 31 would risk a resurgence of fighting. Likely, a U.S. troop surge would have been required, effectively undoing even a conditional drawdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While the Doha agreement, negotiated by the Trump administration, had seven benchmarks for the Taliban \u2015 including renouncing ties with al-Qaida \u2015 the only one they followed through with was the ceasefire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Through much of 2020, both Milley and then-Defense Secretary Mark Esper urged that the U.S. should not withdraw unless the Taliban met all of the conditions, though Trump set a May 1 deadline and Biden extended that to Sept. 11, then rolled it back to Aug. 31.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The understanding was that the Taliban only held fire because they trusted the U.S. would leave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIf you\u2019re talking about a situation where you\u2019re not fighting the Taliban, and you have the full assistance of the Afghan government \u2015 or the Taliban\u2019s attacks against you at a minimum \u2015 yes, you can hold it at 2,500,\u201d McKenzie said. \u201cIf, however you posit that you\u2019re in Afghanistan, say, beyond August 31 without the tacit agreement of the Taliban, and without the assistance of the government of Afghanistan, who provided most of the physical security environment, then you\u2019d have to put a big footprint.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Officials tried to answer unresolved questions for lawmakers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":89754,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":68,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[100,22,23,93,12,25,68],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3301],"class_list":["post-53639","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news-roundup","category-disaster","category-home","category-middle-column","category-news","category-newsletters","category-pentagon-congress"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"CDNXVPYYMNGSNIYGRQSKGT3YOI","arc_canonical_url":"\/flashpoints\/afghanistan\/2021\/09\/29\/why-bagram-wouldnt-have-made-a-difference-and-more-about-the-afghanistan-exit-plan\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented 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