{"id":68148,"date":"2017-08-09T19:54:57","date_gmt":"2017-08-09T19:54:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/armytimes\/uncategorized\/2017\/08\/09\/could-north-korea-attack-guam\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T11:49:47","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T11:49:47","slug":"could-north-korea-attack-guam","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/armytimes\/news\/your-army\/2017\/08\/09\/could-north-korea-attack-guam\/","title":{"rendered":"Targeting Guam: Will Kim Jong Un do it?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">North Korea\u2019s latest threat to attack Guam was no doubt alarming for the roughly 16,400 U.S. troops and family members stationed on the west Pacific island.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But several Korean analysts said the harsh words are probably not indicative of a coming war but were instead just the latest salvo in the Kim Jong Un regime\u2019s attempt to show strength and get the rest of the world to back off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">North Korea has issued such threats before, said Dr. Terence Roehrig, a national security professor at the Naval War College.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt\u2019s not surprising they\u2019re going to be vocal about plans like that,\u201d he said. \u201cWe do deterrence like that too.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pyongyang has several missiles, including the non-nuclear Musudans, that could reach Guam, just more than 2,000 miles away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the United States has the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, missile defense system deployed to Guam, while AEGIS-equipped destroyers are nearby in Japan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It also remains to be seen just how capable North Korea\u2019s longer-range missiles are, Roehrig said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cRange is one issue, but accuracy is another,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s not entirely certain to me that their accuracy is as good as you might think, or the North Koreans hope.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The North Korean regime knows an attack on Guam would prompt a U.S. military response that would end Kim Jong Un\u2019s regime, said Dr. Patrick Cronin, senior director of the Asia-Pacific Security program at the Center for a New American Security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Still, academic talk about a new Cold War-style chess match between the two nations serves as little comfort to those that are in possible crosshairs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">President Trump dived headfirst into the war of words Wednesday when he said he would rain down \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/08\/08\/world\/asia\/north-korea-un-sanctions-nuclear-missile-united-nations.html\">fire and fury like the world has never seen<\/a>\u201d on North Korea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cNorth Korea had best not make any more threats to the United States,\u201d Trump said from his golf course in Bedminster, New Jersey.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link smg-interstitial-link--fallback wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/smr\/space-missile-defense\/2017\/08\/09\/new-mda-director-us-prepared-to-defend-against-north-korean-nuclear-icbm-threat\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__fallback-link\">New MDA director: US prepared to defend against North Korean nuclear ICBM threat<\/a><\/aside>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Guam Gov. Eddie Calvo said Wednesday that \u201cthis is not the time to panic,\u201d according to a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.guampdn.com\/story\/news\/2017\/08\/09\/homeland-no-imminent-threat-guam-marianas\/551183001\/\">Pacific Daily News report<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThere have been many statements out there that have been made by a very bellicose leader, but at this point there\u2019s been no change in the security situation here in Guam,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Secretary of State Rex Tillerson <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2017\/08\/09\/politics\/north-korea-donald-trump\/index.html\">sought to walk back the alarm<\/a> Thursday, saying \u201cAmericans should sleep well at night\u201d and that the situation has remained unchanged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But a few hours later, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis took his boss\u2019 tack and warned that North Korea\u2019s pursuit of nukes \u201cwould lead to the end of its regime and the destruction of its people.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/militarytimes\/flashpoints\/2017\/08\/09\/mattis-north-korea-must-cease-nuclear-pursuit-would-result-in-end-of-its-regime\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP17220614017684.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Mattis: North Korea nuke attack would result in \u2018end of its regime\u2019<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">Defense Secretary warns North Korea that it&#039;s grossly overmatched in military power by U.S., and must stop the pursuit of nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite the harsh words, neither side wants war, according to analysts, and tough talk is part of deterrence, to ensure the other side doesn\u2019t take things kinetic first.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cNorth Korea\u2019s capabilities are meant as threats, not as instruments they could use,\u201d Cronin said. \u201cTheir survival is immediately called into question if they ever fired one of these.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Still, fiery words from North Korea are amplified by missile tests that suggest an increased and troubling capability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Just this week, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/national-security\/north-korea-now-making-missile-ready-nuclear-weapons-us-analysts-say\/2017\/08\/08\/e14b882a-7b6b-11e7-9d08-b79f191668ed_story.html?utm_term=.b50b56ebad22\">the Washington Post reported<\/a> that U.S. intelligence officials believe the North Koreans can now miniaturize nuclear warheads to fit on missiles as the regime develops an arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles that could strike mainland America.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But experts said many questions remain about the North Korean capability. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI think it\u2019s still unproven that North Korea would be able to launch with sufficient accuracy to hit a target like Guam with a high probability of success,\u201d said Scott Snyder, a senior fellow for Korea studies and director of the U.S.-Korea policy program at the Council on Foreign Relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But he added that the agency is working to mitigate evolving, complex threats that could include several ICBMs or decoys.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In North Korea\u2019s statement announcing it was reviewing plans to attack Guam, Pyongyang\u2019s state-run <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=KCNA&amp;src=typd\">KCNA news agency<\/a> said show-of-force flights by U.S. B-1 bombers taking off from Guam\u2019s Anderson Air Force Base and flying near North Korean airspace \u201cgets on the nerves\u201d of the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Two of the bombers flew the route earlier this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The U.S. Air Force has undertaken similar runs under Presidents Obama and Trump after North Korean nuclear and missile tests to show that the current state of things remains unchanged, Cronin said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cRemember who has the more capable military \u2014&nbsp;remember we have your address and can put bombs on target instantly,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The U.S. can deter North Korea from outright hostility with the threat of utter destruction if Pyongyang attacked, Cronin said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWe are in an intensified Cold War situation in North Korea, but we deter North Korea from being able to actually use these weapons,\u201d he said. \u201cThe brinksmanship that is manifested in these hysterical words are only intended to scare and frighten.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While a North Korean attack on Guam remains irrational and unlikely, the United States remains a slip-up away from war with North Korea, Roehrig said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI am more worried when we get in crises, that is when leaders make mistakes and work on short timelines and lack of intelligence,\u201d he said. \u201cThen bad things can happen.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br\/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>North Korea&#8217;s is threatening to attack Guam. But experts say the regime&#8217;s missiles lack the precision and its leaders lack the political will needed for a successful strike.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":96535,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":70,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[100,8,12,25,70],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3309],"class_list":["post-68148","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news-roundup","category-flashpoints","category-news","category-newsletters","category-your-army"],"acf":{"subheadline":"Analysts say North Korea threats are meant to deter","legacy_arc_id":"4EKHTVEMH5BUZBNHLBMUCY44RE","arc_canonical_url":"\/news\/your-military\/2017\/08\/09\/could-north-korea-attack-guam\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Targeting Guam: Will Kim Jong Un do it? - Army Times<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"North Korea&#039;s is threatening to attack Guam. 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