{"id":15187,"date":"2015-12-08T14:27:09","date_gmt":"2015-12-08T14:27:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/uncategorized\/2015\/12\/08\/radar-market-poised-for-modest-growth\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T18:03:14","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T18:03:14","slug":"radar-market-poised-for-modest-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/special-reports\/missile-defense\/2015\/12\/08\/radar-market-poised-for-modest-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"Radar market poised for modest growth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">WASHINGTON \u2014 After several relatively flat years, the global market for military radars is poised to grow modestly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Between 2011 and 2015, the worldwide radar market hovered around $12 billion, according to an analysis conducted by Avascent. Based on the U.S.&#8217; five-year defense plan and other nations&#8217; budgets and program commitments, Avascent projects the market will climb over $13 billion in 2016 and 2017, and after a quick dip in 2018, stay above $12.5 billion through 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The two main drivers are deliveries of fixed-wing aircraft with integrated radar systems, notably the F-35, and the proliferation of demand for air and missile defense radar (AMDR) systems, said Sebatian Sobolev, project manager for Avascent&#8217;s analytics division.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;The short-term bump is AMDR and F-15 modifications,&#8221; he said. &#8220;I think a lot of the airborne fire-control spending is really going to be driven by a lot of the programs that we all sort of know and love here and abroad: It&#8217;s F-35 coming on line and spinning up to high production rates.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Farther out, there will also be substantial demand for AMDRs, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;That&#8217;s going to come from the Middle East and Asia, by and large, those are requirements that have either been stated as a matter of policy that those countries are going to pursue, or gaps that we&#8217;ve identified,&#8221; Sobolev said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the next decade, AMDR and airborne fire control will continue to make up more than half the market, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Along with the US, nations with well-developed militaries are transitioning away from mechanically scanned array antennae to active electronically scanned array (AESA) radars, said Douglas Barrie, a London-based senior fellow for military aerospace with the International Institute for Strategic Studies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;It&#8217;s a much more reliable technology&#8221; and has several performance advantages, he said. &#8220;The mean time between failures is far less. It gives you greater range. It allows you to do a number of searches pretty much simultaneously.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Joe Hulsey, a retired Navy officer who flew EA-6B Prowlers and served as Northrop Grumman&#8217;s program manager on the EA-18G, said the U.S.&#8217; protracted acquisition schedule means that the radar market will remain relatively stable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;With the defense budget down, there are fewer programs, but there are still opportunities out there. There&#8217;s still the need to protect the US in a way that we really haven&#8217;t much before,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Future platforms that will include new radar selections include the frigate version of the U.S. Navy&#8217;s littoral combat ship and the sixth-generation fighter, Hulsey said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, advances in radar technology are likely to be incremental unless the development of a new innovation coincides with the production of a major new platform, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;You have to have that elegant technology jump when there&#8217;s a program to put it in,&#8221; Hulsey said. &#8220;It&#8217;s a matter of timing.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are a few limiting factors on the radar market. The necessity of hundreds of expensive transmit\/receive modules makes AESA systems very expensive, pricing them out of the budgets of many countries that would like to upgrade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Additionally, there are physical limitations to how much information processors can handle, said Hulsey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;Historically, we&#8217;ve been computer constrained,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Militaries are also exploring the possibility of scaling down AESA systems and putting them on smaller platforms, like UAVs or weapons, said Barrie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One major hurdle is cost\u00a0effectiveness, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;The cost equation of putting an active electronically scanned radar array on a weapon is a difficult one to crack, because you only use it once. It&#8217;s not coming back,&#8221; Barrie said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, if the intended target is worth tens of millions of dollars, a long-range air-to-air missile with AESA could be justifiable, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The ultimate goal is to make radars that don&#8217;t dictate the design of aircraft or ships, where large panels on deck make it obvious what they are, how many there are an which direction they are pointed. Today&#8217;s combat aircraft design requires a large space in the nose for radar, but a radar shaped to the skin of the aircraft instead could offer 240- to 300-degree coverage, Barrie said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Email:\u00a0<a href=\"mailto:aclevenger@defensenews.com\">aclevenger@defensenews.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Twitter:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/@andclev\">@andclev<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Avascent projects the market will climb over $13 billion in 2016 and 2017.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":47459,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":75,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[16,75,26],"tags":[],"coauthors":[2053],"class_list":["post-15187","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-it-networks","category-missile-defense","category-special-reports"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"P6B24WQOABHKTD3KWXTI766OYM","arc_canonical_url":"\/special-reports\/missile-defense\/2015\/12\/08\/radar-market-poised-for-modest-growth\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented 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