{"id":22369,"date":"2018-01-30T16:16:13","date_gmt":"2018-01-30T16:16:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/uncategorized\/2018\/01\/30\/artificial-intelligence-is-the-weapon-of-the-next-cold-war\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T18:10:30","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T18:10:30","slug":"artificial-intelligence-is-the-weapon-of-the-next-cold-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/opinion\/2018\/01\/30\/artificial-intelligence-is-the-weapon-of-the-next-cold-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Artificial intelligence is the weapon of the next Cold War"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

It is easy to confuse the current geopolitical situation with that of the 1980s. The United States and Russia each accuse<\/a> the other<\/a> of interfering in domestic affairs<\/a>. Russia has annexed territory<\/a> over U.S. objections, raising concerns about military conflict<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As during the Cold War after World War II<\/a>, nations are developing and building weapons based on advanced technology. During the Cold War, the weapon of choice was nuclear missiles; today it\u2019s software, whether it\u2019s used for attacking computer systems<\/a> or targets in the real world<\/a>.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian rhetoric about the importance of artificial intelligence is picking up \u2014 and with good reason: As artificial intelligence software develops, it will be able to make decisions based on more data, and more quickly, than humans can handle. As someone who researches the use of AI for applications as diverse as drones<\/a>, self-driving vehicles<\/a> and cybersecurity<\/a>, I worry that the world may be entering \u2014 or perhaps already in \u2014 another cold war, fueled by AI. And I\u2019m not<\/a> alone<\/a>.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Modern Cold War<\/b>
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just like the the Cold War in the 1940s and 1950s, each side has reason to fear its opponent gaining a technological upper hand. In a recent meeting at the Strategic Missile Academy near Moscow, Russian President Vladmir Putin suggested that AI may be the way Russia can rebalance the power shift<\/a> created by the U.S. outspending Russia nearly 10-to-1 on defense each year. Russia\u2019s state-sponsored RT media reported<\/a> AI was \u201ckey to Russia beating [the] U.S. in defense.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It sounds remarkably like the rhetoric of the Cold War, where the United States and the Soviets each built up enough nuclear weapons to kill everyone on Earth many times over<\/a>. This arms race led to the concept of mutual assured destruction<\/a>: Neither side could risk engaging in open war without risking its own ruin. Instead, both sides stockpiled weapons and dueled<\/a>indirectly<\/a> via smaller armed conflicts and political disputes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, more than 30 years after the end of the Cold War, the U.S. and Russia have decommissioned tens of thousands<\/a> of nuclear weapons. However, tensions are growing. Any modern-day cold war would include cyberattacks and nuclear powers\u2019 involvement in allies\u2019 conflicts. It\u2019s already happening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both countries have expelled the other\u2019s diplomats<\/a>. Russia has annexed<\/a> part of Crimea. The Turkey-Syria border war has even been called<\/a> a \u201cproxy war\u201d between the U.S. and Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both countries \u2014 and many others too<\/a> \u2014 still have nuclear weapons, but their use by a major power is still unthinkable to most. However, recent reports<\/a> show increased public concern that countries might use them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A world of cyberconflict<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cyberweapons, however, particularly those powered by AI, are still considered fair game<\/a> by both sides<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
FILE – In this Jan. 25, 1951 file photo, students at Thomas Jefferson elementary school kneel in the hallway during an air raid drill being practiced by public schools in Baltimore. For some baby boomers, North Korea’s nuclear advances and the Trump administration’s bellicose response have prompted flashbacks to a time when they were young, and when they prayed each night that they might awaken the next morning. For their children, the North Korean crisis was a taste of what the Cold War was like. (AP Photo, File)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Russia and Russian-supporting hackers<\/a> have spied electronically<\/a>, launched cyberattacks<\/a> against power plants<\/a>, banks, hospitals and transportation systems<\/a> \u2014 and against U.S. elections<\/a>. Russian cyberattackers have targeted the Ukraine<\/a> and U.S. allies Britain<\/a> and Germany<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. is certainly capable<\/a> of responding and may have done so<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin has said he views artificial intelligence<\/a> as \u201cthe future, not only for Russia, but for all humankind.\u201d In September 2017, he told students that the nation that \u201cbecomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world<\/a>.\u201d Putin isn\u2019t saying he\u2019ll hand over the nuclear launch codes to a computer, though science fiction<\/a> has portrayed computers launching missiles<\/a>. He is talking about many other uses for AI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Use of AI for nuclear weapons control<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Threats posed by surprise attacks from ship- and submarine-based<\/a> nuclear weapons and weapons placed near a country\u2019s borders may lead some nations to entrust self-defense tactics \u2014 including launching counterattacks \u2014 to the rapid decision-making capabilities of an AI system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In case of an attack, the AI could act more quickly and without the potential hesitation<\/a> or dissent of a human operator<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
This 1999 photo provided by the U.S. Air Force shows how the underground launch control capsule of Missile Alert Facility Quebec-01 appeared when operational, when Air Force missile crews stood on alert prepared to launch Peacekeeper missiles during the Cold War, at. F.E. Warren Air Force Base north of Cheyenne, Wyo. The Air Force and the state of Wyoming have signed an agreement paving the way to turn the abandoned MAF into a museum and tourist attraction.(U.S. Air Force via AP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A fast, automated response capability could help ensure potential adversaries know a nation is ready and willing to launch, the key to mutual assured destruction<\/a>\u2018s effectiveness as a deterrent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AI control of non-nuclear weapons<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

AI can also be used to control non-nuclear weapons including unmanned vehicles like drones and cyberweapons. Unmanned vehicles must be able to operate while their communications are impaired \u2014 which requires onboard AI control. AI control also prevents a group that\u2019s being targeted<\/a> from stopping or preventing a drone attack by destroying its control facility<\/a>, because control is distributed, both physically and electronically<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cyberweapons may, similarly, need to operate beyond the range of communications<\/a>. And reacting to them may require such rapid response<\/a> that the responses would be best launched and controlled by AI systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AI-coordinated attacks can launch cyber or real-world weapons almost instantly, making the decision to attack before a human even notices a reason to. AI systems can change targets and techniques faster than humans can comprehend, much less analyze. For instance, an AI system might launch a drone to attack a factory, observe drones responding to defend, and launch a cyberattack on those drones, with no noticeable pause.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The importance of AI development<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A country that thinks its adversaries have or will get AI weapons will want to get them too. Wide use of AI-powered cyberattacks<\/a> may still be some time away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Countries might agree to a proposed Digital Geneva Convention<\/a> to limit AI conflict. But that won\u2019t stop AI attacks by independent nationalist groups<\/a>, militias, criminal organizations, terrorists and others \u2014 and countries can back out of treaties. It\u2019s almost certain, therefore, that someone will turn AI into a weapon \u2014 and that everyone else will do so too, even if only out of a desire to be prepared to defend themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With Russia embracing AI<\/a>, other nations that don\u2019t or those that restrict AI development risk becoming unable to compete<\/a> \u2014 economically or militarily \u2014 with countries wielding developed AIs. Advanced AIs can create advantage for a nation\u2019s businesses, not just its military, and those without AI may be severely disadvantaged. Perhaps most importantly, though, having sophisticated AIs in many countries could provide a deterrent against attacks<\/a>, as happened with nuclear weapons during the Cold War.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article was originally published on The Conversation<\/a>.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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