{"id":22722,"date":"2018-03-16T19:45:00","date_gmt":"2018-03-16T19:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/uncategorized\/2018\/03\/16\/air-force-isr-leaders-underestimated-the-pace-of-change-and-the-threats\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T18:19:10","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T18:19:10","slug":"air-force-isr-leaders-underestimated-the-pace-of-change-and-the-threats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/intel-geoint\/isr\/2018\/03\/16\/air-force-isr-leaders-underestimated-the-pace-of-change-and-the-threats\/","title":{"rendered":"Air Force ISR leaders \u2018underestimated the pace of change and the threats\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Air Force is facing criticism for cancelling a major recapitalization due, in part, to not foreseeing the escalating threat posed by near-peer adversaries and high-end capabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Officials in the intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance enterprise within the Air Force and Joint Staff faced a barrage of questions from lawmakers March 15 regarding the Air Force\u2019s decision to cancel the Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System (JSTARS) recapitalization program.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lawmakers on the House Armed Services Tactical Air and Land Forces Subcommittee asked point blank why the Air Force requested $417 million for JSTARS less than 12 months ago if it didn\u2019t need it. In response, Lt. Gen. Jerry Harris Jr., Air Force deputy chief of staff for strategic plans and requirements, said it was because the service was still undergoing an evaluation and didn\u2019t have a National Defense Strategy that was directing the force to focus elsewhere and prioritize great power competition over terrorism.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/breaking-news\/2018\/02\/10\/air-force-to-kill-jstars-recap-program-for-new-battlefield-management-plane\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"203\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/JSTARS-small.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Air Force to kill JSTARS recap program for new battlefield management plane<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">The Air Force intends to cancel the JSTARS recap program in its fiscal year 2019 budget submission, tanking one of the service\u2019s few remaining aircraft production opportunities still in contention.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI wouldn\u2019t say in 2011 we got the analysis of alternatives studies wrong, we just looked at and underestimated the pace of change and the threats,\u201d Harris said. \u201cWe talked through that AoA multiple threats that exist today that were forecast to be here in 2024 and 2028. So that threat has accelerated quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a similar theme that has played out across the joint force, the Air Force appeared to be caught flatfooted against near-peer threats that have studied U.S. tactics and techniques over the last 30 years of operations. The military is now in the process of transitioning from almost two decades of war in permissive environments to preparing for potential conflicts against high-end, technologically advanced competitors that edge out the U.S. in certain capability areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/show-reporter\/technet-augusta\/2017\/08\/10\/us-is-outgunned-in-electronic-warfare-says-cyber-commander\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"294\" height=\"300\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/635543387660008727-arm-hot-jobsjpg.jpg?w=294\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">US is \u2018outgunned\u2019 in electronic warfare, says cyber commander<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">Two military leaders admitted at the TechNet Augusta conference this week that the United States is falling behind in its electronic warfare capability.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIn 2011 we weren\u2019t talking about peer threats, we didn\u2019t have a strategy that said you have to focus on the high end \u2026 we were focused on winning today\u2019s fight in a [counterinsurgency] type of environment where this airplane was well developed and deserved,\u201d Harris said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Moreover, three witnesses on the panel indicated the existing mix of ISR capabilities might not be able to operate in contested environments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cFrom a requirements standpoint, the answer is \u2018No,\u2019\u201d Lt. Gen. John Dolan, director of operations for the Joint Staff, said. \u201cThat\u2019s a priority that the department\u2019s looking at.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThat is one of the main reasons why with JSTARS we feel like we\u2019ve got to review the recap program to ensure that we\u2019re able to operate in those high-intensity environments,\u201d Lt. Gen. Anthony Ierardi, director of force structure, resources and assessments for the Joint Staff, said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Harris explained that the Air Force is working through hardening cyber and physical defenses, which is why they believe they need to expand beyond the air domain for ISR and increase capability and capacity in all domains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A forthcoming review by the Air Force may address these concerns in more depth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe Air Force recognizes the need for ISR capabilities across the spectrum of warfare to align with the National Defense Strategy. The Air Force Next Generation ISR Dominance Flight Plan will detail how we will prepare for the high-end fight. It will be published in spring 2018,\u201d an Air Force spokesman told C4ISRNET in response to questions concerning recently released budget materials.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/intel-geoint\/isr\/2018\/01\/04\/air-forces-to-unveil-plan-to-revamp-isr-enterprise-this-spring\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"214\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/635559612488234378-75472jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Air Force to unveil plan to revamp ISR enterprise this spring<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">The flight plan will chart the course for the Air Force&#039;s ISR enterprise from now until 2035.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>How is the Air Force getting after this?<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Harris told <a href=\"https:\/\/www.c4isrnet.com\/it-networks\/2017\/09\/27\/battlefield-network-backbone-takes-hit-in-armys-effort-to-reboot-strategy\/\" title=\"\" class=\"\" target=\"_blank\">visibly frustrated lawmakers<\/a> that the service intends to move its acquisition process and requirements faster than it has in the past. This \u201cwill allow us to be able to get ahead of the technology piece so that the money that we invested in the JSTARS recap effort, those radars, the technologies we\u2019re pulling out of that, we think will still benefit us in increment two and increment three \u2026 so it was not money wasted,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He also pointed to William Roper, the Air Force\u2019s new assistant secretary for acquisition, as a catalyst to lead this change. Roper most recently headed the once secretive Strategic Capabilities Office at the Pentagon that sought to repurpose existing technologies to get at near-term problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI think you\u2019ll see those changes coming up and it\u2019s a change in the way we\u2019ve done business in the past,\u201d Harris said. \u201cWe certainly don\u2019t intend to start down in one direction and have abrupt changes but we have a National Defense Strategy that\u2019s changed.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He continued: \u201cI would say that while we may not be keeping with the pace of change, we\u2019re trying to change that rather than continue to invest money in the old way of doing things that 15 years from now we\u2019ll have the same capability in a JSTARS recap aircraft that we have today, but it will only work in a small portion of the globe rather than our increment three that we\u2019re trying to get at to span the globe.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Air Force isn\u2019t alone in feeling the ire of Congress for failing to forecast threats. The JSTARS recap cancellation follows the high-profile <a href=\"https:\/\/www.c4isrnet.com\/it-networks\/2018\/02\/14\/the-armys-next-network-strategy-halt-fix-pivot\" title=\"\" class=\"selected-link\" target=\"_blank\" data-original-title=\"\" aria-describedby=\"popover413069\">Army review<\/a> in which that branch halted major portions of its tactical network. Similarly, while the Army\u2019s tactical network was built for and worked in a permissive environment, officials <a href=\"https:\/\/www.c4isrnet.com\/c2-comms\/2018\/03\/08\/russia-and-china-are-forcing-the-army-to-buy-it-equipment-differently\/\" title=\"\" class=\"\" target=\"_blank\">noted it would not stack up against high-end adversaries in a future fight<\/a>. <br><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Air Force told lawmakers this week that it underestimated threats when assessing the fate of its ISR systems.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":27127,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":41,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[106,109,29,15,41,32],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3268],"class_list":["post-22722","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-brief","category-geoint-newsletters","category-home","category-intel-geoint","category-isr","category-newsletters"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"P4RCLFNPCJFOBGOXA3YKXUVKNI","arc_canonical_url":"\/intel-geoint\/isr\/2018\/03\/16\/air-force-isr-leaders-underestimated-the-pace-of-change-and-the-threats\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Air Force ISR leaders \u2018underestimated the pace of change and the threats\u2019 - C4ISRNet<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Air Force told lawmakers this week that it underestimated threats when assessing the fate of its ISR systems.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Air Force ISR leaders \u2018underestimated the pace of change and the threats\u2019\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Air Force told lawmakers this week that it underestimated threats when assessing the fate of its ISR systems.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" 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