{"id":31373,"date":"2019-08-08T16:38:35","date_gmt":"2019-08-08T16:38:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/uncategorized\/2019\/08\/08\/how-uncertainty-in-the-cyber-domain-changes-war\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T18:44:52","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T18:44:52","slug":"how-uncertainty-in-the-cyber-domain-changes-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/it-networks\/2019\/08\/08\/how-uncertainty-in-the-cyber-domain-changes-war\/","title":{"rendered":"How uncertainty in the cyber domain changes war"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">LAS VEGAS \u2014 Uncertainty clouds the cyber domain. The ability to blur where attacks originated raises questions about how to strike back, while cyber weapons are changing the theory of deterrence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discussions swirl throughout the globe about whether cyberattacks constitute acts of war and whether they warrant a military response. In 2011, the Pentagon <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/SB10001424052702304563104576355623135782718\">decided<\/a> that they would.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt\u2019s very easy to say these things; it\u2019s much more different to do these things,\u201d Mikko Hypponen, chief research officer of Finnish cybersecurity and privacy company F-Secure, said at Black Hat USA, a hacker conference in Las Vegas running Aug. 3-8. \u201cThe reason why it\u2019s so hard is basically one word: attribution.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The origins of attacks in the cyber domain, particularly those of advanced persistent threats like nation-state actors, aren\u2019t easy to pinpoint, making a decision to respond to a cyberattack with kinetic means, like missiles and bombs, more risky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cHow actually do you know who launched it? And if your enemy knows that you will respond with real-world attacks, the obvious tactic would then be that you mask your attacks to be coming from another enemy of yours,\u201d Hypponen said. \u201cReroute your attacks through another country, make it look like it\u2019s coming from someone else.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As an example, Hypponen said that the Russians use the Mandarin Chinese version of Microsoft Word for malicious files in their APT attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He also said that cyber weapons are \u201cgetting very close to the perfect weapon.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cCyber weapons are cheap, effective, and they are deniable,\u201d Hypponen said<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The lines may be shifting in nations\u2019 response to cyberattacks. Hypponen used Israel\u2019s airstrike on a building allegedly housing Hamas\u2019 hackers <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bleepingcomputer.com\/news\/security\/israel-bombs-building-as-retaliation-for-hamas-cyber-attack\/\" target=\"_blank\">in May<\/a> as an example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe fact that attribution here wasn\u2019t hindering the real-world response is important to think about; in this case, they knew perfectly well who they were fighting,\u201d Hypponen said. \u201cThey had enough know-how, maybe insiders, who knew where these cyber operations were physically coming from &#8230; For most cyberattacks, this is not the case.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, Hypponen concluded that because there are so many ways for hackers to avoid attribution, missiles should not be launched if the actor is only launching cyberattacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe attackers &#8230; can definitely figure out ways to bypass any mechanisms that we currently use for attribution,\u201d Hypponen said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cBut when it\u2019s part of a bigger conflict, then it\u2019s pretty obvious what\u2019s at play, who are the attackers and why they are doing what they\u2019re doing,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>No such thing as cyber deterrence<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But bigger conflict comes with more significant challenges. Cyberwarfare differs significantly from traditional warfare, where adversaries know how many tanks, fighter jets or aircraft carriers an adversary has. Furthermore, nuclear powers have even stronger deterrence postures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe power in the tens of thousands active nuclear war heads on this planet right now is not in using them; it\u2019s in having them,\u201d Hypponen said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s different in cyberspace, however, where 0-day vulnerabilities \u2014 weaknesses in programs or systems that only the hacker is aware of \u2014 aren\u2019t visible. So countries don\u2019t know the strength of adversaries\u2019 capabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cCyber weapons &#8230; haven\u2019t had deterrence power so far because we have no idea who has what,\u201d Hypponen said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThere\u2019s no deterrence power in weapons nobody knows about,\u201d Hypponen said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is, however, one thing we know for certain, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWe know that all developed nations are developing cyber defenses and cyber offenses,&#8221; Hypponen said. \u201cEverybody is doing this.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Beyond that, in terms of the offense cyber capabilities of other countries, \u201cwe have no idea,\u201d Hypponen said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cSo what kind of deterrence do these tools build? Nothing.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Attack attribution and deterrence become much harder in 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