{"id":31865,"date":"2020-04-29T18:30:08","date_gmt":"2020-04-29T18:30:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/uncategorized\/2020\/04\/29\/rand-report-backs-up-space-forces-plan-for-just-two-heavy-launch-providers\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T18:24:49","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T18:24:49","slug":"rand-report-backs-up-space-forces-plan-for-just-two-heavy-launch-providers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/space\/2020\/04\/29\/rand-report-backs-up-space-forces-plan-for-just-two-heavy-launch-providers\/","title":{"rendered":"RAND report backs up Space Force\u2019s plan for only two heavy launch providers"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Space and Missile Systems Center says a new report by the thinktank RAND supports its decision to award contracts to only two launch providers under the National Security Space Launch program.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/research_reports\/RR4251.html\" target=_blank>The study, which was commissioned by the Air Force<\/a>, shows that the heavy launch market is unlikely to sustain more than two domestic launch providers over the long term, a conclusion that supports the main thrust of the Defense Department\u2019s acquisitions approach for heavy lift launch services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWe asked RAND to independently double check the assumptions we used to build our acquisition strategy,\u201d said Col. Robert Bongiovi, director of SMC\u2019s Launch Systems Enterprise Directorate. \u201cWhat we found was that our acquisition strategy encompasses RAND\u2019s recommendations as we are already making prudent preparations for a market that will only sustain two providers with our Phase 2 contract structure.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/space\/2020\/02\/28\/with-static-test-complete-northrop-grummans-omega-rocket-is-on-track-for-2021-flight\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/C300-st-test.jpeg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">With static test complete, Northrop Grumman\u2019s OmegA rocket is on track for 2021 flight<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">The OmegA rocket is Northrop Grumman\u2019s entrant in the Space Force\u2019s competition to select the next generation of vehicles for the National Security Space Launch program. The successful static test of its second stage engine conducted Feb. 27 keeps OmegA on track for a certification flight in 2021.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The NSSL competition was undertaken to end U.S. reliance on the Russian propulsion systems used for the Atlas V and Delta IV rockets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWe had to take prudent steps to expeditiously end reliance on Russian propulsion systems while maintaining 100 percent mission success for critical National Security Space assets,&#8221; said Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Will Roper. &#8220;The Department\u2019s strategy over the last five years is delivering on that mandate.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are four companies vying for the contracts: United Launch Alliance, SpaceX, Blue Origin and Northrop Grumman. However, SMC plans to award contracts to only two providers for 30-plus heavy lift launches from 2022 through 2025, arguing that the market will not support more than two domestic providers. Those contracts are expected to follow a 60-40 split, with the launches scheduled between 2022 and 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Rand report supports the SMC\u2019s framing, projecting only moderate growth in the commercial heavy lift market over the next 10 years, meaning industry is unlikely to be able to support more than one U.S. launch provider. Therefore, the Space Force should prepare for a future with only two NSSL providers, one of which may receive limited support from the commercial market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;Given the market projections highlighted in the RAND market study, supporting more than two operational National Security Space launch providers would also decrease each provider\u2019s launch tempo which lowers overall reliability and increases satellite launch costs,\u201d said Brig. Gen. Donna Shipton, SMC vice commander.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Noted Roper: \u201cI think the biggest takeaway: I\u2019m glad that they agreed with our assessment that the market can only support two providers long term. That\u2019s what we believed based on the market research, and they upheld that. So that\u2019s good to know.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Still, the authors do recommend the Pentagon \u201ccontinue to provide tailored support through 2023 to enable three U.S. launch service providers to continue in or enter the heavy lift launch market.\u201d Although they also noted that support does not need to come in the form of a third NSSL contract.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe finding that carrying a third provider in some way, in the near term would help especially in discouraging a foreign entrant to the market is one that I agree with,&#8221; Roper said. \u201cI think, in a perfect world, we absolutely would continue with more providers just because this is an emerging market where there are a lot of areas and technologies being developed, and if money were no option, I would love to continue research and development in launch and start phase three R&amp;D of the program earlier. It\u2019s just merely a funding constraint for us.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cSo when we\u2019re looking at our national security space launch portfolio, we funded what is required to get our job done,&#8221; he added. \u201cWe will be able to have two providers capable of putting up every satellite that we need to put up \u2014 Air Force, Space Force and [National Reconnaissance Office].\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Space Force is expected to issue the contracts this summer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Space and Missile Systems Center is touting a new report produced by the think tank Rand that recommends the Space Force plan for only two domestic heavy lift launch providers in the long 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