{"id":34208,"date":"2024-06-11T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-11T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/uncategorized\/2024\/06\/11\/us-space-force-plans-to-boost-competition-for-launch-business-will-it-work\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T18:38:10","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T18:38:10","slug":"us-space-force-plans-to-boost-competition-for-launch-business-will-it-work","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/space\/2024\/06\/11\/us-space-force-plans-to-boost-competition-for-launch-business-will-it-work\/","title":{"rendered":"US Space Force plans to boost competition for launch business. Will it work?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Whenever the U.S. military launched a satellite over the last six years, the rocket carrying that payload bore the logo of SpaceX or the United Launch Alliance \u2014 the only companies eligible<\/a> to fly National Security Space Launch missions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck has watched those launches while smaller and emerging providers like his own company lacked a clear pathway to compete for the missions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He and other launch executives have encouraged the Space Force to create entry points for firms building new rockets. And now they may have a way forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Space Force announced last year that the next phase of its strategy for procuring launches would set aside missions for new providers<\/a>. It was welcome news for Beck, who believes his company\u2019s Neutron rocket, still in development, will be a top contender.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat was the right approach,\u201d Beck told C4ISRNET in an interview. \u201cWe really wanted that approach to occur, and we were very vocal that that\u2019s the way it should be.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The strategy for Phase 3 of the Space Force\u2019s National Security Space Launch program<\/a>, or NSSL, includes two lanes in which companies can compete to launch military satellites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lane 1, which will include 30 launches from 2025 through 2034, is for new providers. Missions in this category have less stringent requirements, and companies will have a chance to join annually as they prove their rockets are ready.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The service plans to select initial, eligible Lane 1 companies this spring but won\u2019t award the first round of contracts until next year. While launch vehicles don\u2019t need to move through the traditional certification process, firms must fly their rockets by Dec. 15, 2024, to receive an initial contract.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The remaining 49 launches will carry heavier Space Force payloads and are reserved for companies able to meet a more stringent set of security and performance requirements. Contracts for Lane 2 are expected this summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most of those missions will go to two firms \u2014 likely incumbents SpaceX and ULA \u2014 but the service has the option to choose a third provider if a company presents a sound plan to certify its rocket for Lane 2 launches by 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the government selects a third firm, it will likely be Blue Origin, whose New Glenn vehicle \u2014 designed to fly large payloads \u2014 is slated to fly this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
New Glenn\u2019s first and second stages undergo work at Blue Origin\u2019s orbital launch vehicle factory at Cape Canaveral, Fla., on June 12, 2023. (Blue Origin)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Smaller companies have long-term ambitions to compete for more lucrative contracts, like those in Lane 2, but are targeting the more accessible missions in Lane 1 in the near term. As the deadline approaches for the Space Force\u2019s first round of selections, none of those newcomers expect to have their rockets off the ground in time to qualify.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rocket Lab\u2019s Neutron was closest, according to its internal projections, but the firm announced May 6 it is now targeting mid-2025 for the vehicle\u2019s debut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other companies developing medium-lift launch vehicles \u2014 which can carry 4,400-44,100 pounds into orbit \u2014 to compete for Lane 1 contracts include ABL Space Systems, which is targeting next year for the first launch of its RS1 rocket; Firefly Aerospace<\/a> and Northrop Grumman, who are working together to develop the Medium Launch Vehicle and also aiming for a 2025 flight; and Relativity Space, which expects to fly its Terran R rocket in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those timelines mean that \u2014 despite the Space Force creating opportunities for emerging launch vehicles to compete \u2014 initial contracts for those missions could end up going to NSSL program incumbents and potentially Blue Origin in Lane 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Development delays<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Launch executives and outside experts aren\u2019t surprised by the rockets that remain ineligible to receive contracts next year, despite the Space Force\u2019s strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the initially slow on-ramp to competition may present a symbolic blow to the service\u2019s approach and raise eyebrows in Congress, the reality is that developing launch systems is challenging and schedules tend to slip \u2014 as evidenced by Rocket Lab\u2019s latest setback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cGetting Neutron to the pad this year was an ambitious greenlight schedule that we had \u2014 a path to closing if every single aspect went according to plan,\u201d Beck said in the company\u2019s May 6 earnings call. \u201cAs we\u2019ve always said, this is a rocket development program and this is always filled with gremlins, some in our control and some not.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gen. Chance Saltzman, chief of space operations for the Space Force, cautioned against downplaying the significance of the on-ramp opportunities that the service is providing in its strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe on ramps and off ramps \u2014 we shouldn\u2019t just cast those aside because there are companies at different stages of development,\u201d he told reporters April 10 at the Space Symposium in Colorado. \u201cWe\u2019ve tried to account for that in our acquisition strategy so that as they develop, as they mature, there\u2019s pathways into contractual arrangements.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bigger question, experts said, is how many of these companies can, in the coming years, make a place for themselves within a multibillion-dollar national security launch market dominated by a single player \u2014 SpaceX.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The answer to that question will depend on several variables, including commercial launch demand and the continued pursuit of proliferated satellite constellations from both government and private sector customers, according to Joshua Huminski, senior vice president for national security and intelligence programs at the U.S.-based Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. The organization partly focuses on how leaders can address national challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe demand from the commercial market \u2014 which is really going to keep a lot of these companies afloat and in operation \u2014 is going to be almost a driver, and it\u2019s a question of: Can the national security space enterprise keep up?\u201d he told C4ISRNET.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another factor is whether the Space Force can keep its launch procurement strategy agile enough to adapt to that dynamic market. Todd Harrison, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute think tank, said the Space Force should focus on creating an environment that fosters competition rather than try to choose winners and losers through a more restrictive approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI think what we should do is try to create the conditions so that the next SpaceX can emerge,\u201d he told C4ISRNET.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SpaceX dominance<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

That \u201cnext SpaceX,\u201d of course, would be competing with the actual SpaceX, which is owned by billionaire Elon Musk and has a tight hold on the U.S. launch market. The company\u2019s Falcon 9 rocket flew 207 of the 256 domestic launches conducted between 2020 and 2023, according to data compiled by Harrison<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The firm\u2019s dominance in the military market traces back to 2014, following Russia\u2019s annexation of the Ukrainian territory of Crimea. At the time, ULA \u2014 a joint venture of defense giants Lockheed Martin and Boeing \u2014 was the sole-source provider of military launches for the U.S. government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Russian-made RD-180 engine<\/a> powered ULA\u2019s workhorse rocket, the Atlas V. Concerned that the U.S. was too reliant on the Russian propulsion system, Congress called for the Pentagon to end its use of the engine and ensure the military is not dependent on a single company<\/a> to carry national security payloads.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Energomash employees stand near RD-180 engines prepared for shipment to the United States from Russia in 2002. (Maxim Marmur\/AP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Defense Department responded in two ways. It developed a process for certifying more rockets to fly these missions. And it provided seed funding to three firms so they could mature their designs for domestically produced rockets: ULA\u2019s Vulcan, Blue Origin\u2019s New Glenn and Northrop Grumman\u2019s OmegA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ultimately, SpaceX \u2014 which received no DOD development funding but did get money from NASA for its Falcon 9 rocket \u2014 was the first new company to successfully onboard an American-made launch vehicle through the Space Force\u2019s certification process. In 2018, SpaceX launched its first national security payload. And in 2020, along with ULA, it won a five-year contract to fly military missions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, ULA began phasing out its Atlas V rocket and shifted its focus to a new U.S.-sourced launch vehicle, the Vulcan Centaur. The rocket, initially slated to fly in 2019, took its maiden flight in January 2024<\/a>, after repeated development delays. It must fly one more non-DOD mission before it is certified for NSSL launches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Surging demand<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

These events ultimately positioned SpaceX as one of the U.S. military\u2019s primary source of launch services and have helped support its rise in the commercial market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following Moscow\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Western militaries followed the Pentagon\u2019s earlier course of action and divested Russian-made components from their supply chains. That included Russia\u2019s Soyuz rocket<\/a>, which at the time held about half of the global launch market share.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bonnie Triezenberg, a senior engineer at the think tank Rand, described the Soyuz rocket, prior to the 2022 invasion, as \u201cthe only counterweight to the Falcon 9.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhen the Ukraine invasion happened was really when Soyuz was taken off the market,\u201d she told C4ISRNET. \u201cAll of that backlog that was on the Soyuz, a couple of them went to India, but the bulk of it all went onto the Falcon 9.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The exit of Soyuz from the global market came amid a surge in demand for launch services that analysts expect to continue for some time. Quilty Space, a Florida-based consulting firm, estimated in a 2023 report that 20,000 new satellites will be sent to orbit by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That demand and the state of the Soyuz \u2014 combined with recent retirements of many medium and heavy rockets \u2014 created a gap in the number of launch vehicles available to meet that demand, Triezenberg said. That gap has drawn companies like Rocket Lab and Firefly, who have a foot in the small launch market, to branch out to medium-lift systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caleb Henry, the director of research at Quilty, said there\u2019s room for more firms to compete in the medium-lift market, but that questions remain about demand, which could shape how much capacity is needed in the long term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI do think there\u2019s a role, certainly, for one or more companies to fill that gap,\u201d he told C4ISRNET. \u201cBut I don\u2019t have a good guess on how many medium launch vehicles the market will support.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Triezenberg echoed that sentiment, noting she\u2019s surprised at how many rocket providers started developing medium-lift rockets in recent years. It\u2019s only a matter of time, she said, before the competition starts to thin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThings have gotten pretty frothy in the last few years. Everybody\u2019s throwing their hat in the ring,\u201d she added. \u201cYou\u2019re going to see some of that froth come out.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Building a backlog<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

The lack of affordable launch capacity in the medium and heavy lift markets is what is driving Relativity Space\u2019s development of its Terran R rocket, according to Chief Revenue Officer Josh Brost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The company has described its approach as customer-centric, focused on containing costs by 3D printing major parts<\/a> and designing others to be reusable. And while the 270-foot-tall Terran R is \u201coptimized\u201d for launches to low Earth orbit \u2014 about 1,200 miles above the planet\u2019s surface \u2014 Brost said the vision is for it to fly more stressing missions to higher orbits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
An artist’s rendering shows the Terran R vehicle. (Relativity Space)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

One of the most important parts of Relativity\u2019s strategy, according to Brost, is early spending on manufacturing capacity, which the company hopes will allow it to quickly scale Terran R production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEven if you\u2019re reliable and provide great economics, if you can only launch a handful of times a year, you don\u2019t actually move the needle on the market,\u201d Brost said. \u201cThe supply-demand imbalance is strong enough now that to be compelling, you need to be coming into the market with lots of capacity.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like many of the other emerging rocket companies, Relativity has secured a strong backlog of business for Terran R, despite it never having flown. The company has already signed commercial launch contracts cumulatively worth about $2 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe have people signing deals today for 2027, 2028, despite the fact that we\u2019re still evolving, because they see the need for the capability we\u2019re developing,\u201d he said. \u201cThe commercial market is becoming the first buyer of capability, and then the defense market can benefit from that commercial marketplace.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Space Force may not be the biggest customer for Relativity and other growing rocket firms, but its launch needs are still a significant part of its business case. Military launch will likely account for about 30% to 50% of the addressable market for these companies, according to Rand\u2019s Triezenberg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
U.S. Space Force Col. Phillip Verroco explains the layout of the Combined Space Operations Center’s operations floor to French officers on April 15, 2022, at Vandenberg Space Force Base, Calif. (Tech. Sgt Luke Kitterman\/U.S. Space Force)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Although it\u2019s not the Defense Department\u2019s goal to choose which rockets will succeed in the broader market, Triezenberg said the backlog many of these companies have secured indicates that the service\u2019s Phase 3 strategy, and ultimately its procurement decisions, will play a role in how these companies fare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI think what the government is trying to do here with the Phase 3 Lane 1 contracts is sort of [build] up the backlog for these emerging providers,\u201d Triezenberg said. \u201cThat\u2019s going to help these firms when they go to the capital markets and try to raise money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cLaunch is a very capital-intensive business,\u201d she added. \u201cThose backlogs are important.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conditions for competition<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

While the Space Force\u2019s launch procurement strategy offers the opportunity for new launch providers to compete, some experts and members of Congress have questioned whether there\u2019s more the Pentagon can do to lower barriers for these companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rep. Dale Strong, R-Ala., said May 1 during a House Armed Services Committee hearing that while he applauds the Space Force\u2019s Phase 3 approach, he\u2019s worried established players like SpaceX and ULA will encroach on Lane 1, underbidding on those missions in order to edge out smaller firms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI do have concerns about Lane 1,\u201d he said. \u201cI would personally like to see something a bit more concrete to protect them.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beck, Rocket Lab\u2019s CEO, told C4ISRNET he\u2019d like to see rules addressing which missions Lane 2 companies can and cannot compete for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe real risk you run is competitors in Lane 2 not wanting new entrants to come in and going in there and very aggressively bidding that work or doing other things to make it very difficult for new providers,\u201d he said. \u201cIf the whole goal is to on-ramp new providers and utilize the commercial-industrial base, I think there is risk there that it gets stifled by some poor behavior of the incumbents.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another way to better foster competition, according to AEI\u2019s Harrison, would be to allow companies to join Lane 1 as soon as they\u2019ve flown their rockets. As the strategy stands, firms must wait until the annual on-ramp period opens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cCommercial innovation moves faster than a 12-month cycle sometimes,\u201d Harrison said. \u201cLet\u2019s say the on-ramp is in May and a company isn\u2019t ready to bid until that June; they have to wait until the next May to on-ramp again \u2014 an 11-month, 12-month delay. That could be the end of that company.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For smaller firms, building the infrastructure required to support new rockets is also a barrier. Bill Weber, CEO of Firefly Aerospace, said he has talked with the Space Force about pursuing more public-private partnerships<\/a> to alleviate some costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat\u2019s a $100 million launch complex for a medium launch vehicle,\u201d he told C4ISRNET. \u201cThese launch complexes that are required in order to support these national security missions \u2014 they\u2019re exorbitantly expensive, and the utility of it is used by the government customer. So there has to be some public-private partnerships.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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