{"id":36229,"date":"2023-03-12T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-12T11:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/uncategorized\/2023\/03\/12\/sanctions-further-delay-russian-missile-early-warning-program-in-space\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T00:54:15","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T00:54:15","slug":"sanctions-further-delay-russian-missile-early-warning-program-in-space","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/space\/2023\/03\/12\/sanctions-further-delay-russian-missile-early-warning-program-in-space\/","title":{"rendered":"Sanctions further delay Russian missile early warning program in space"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

MOSCOW \u2014 Russia launched its sixth Tundra early warning satellite in November and has four more to go before reaching its goal of 10 total by 2024. But sources say production problems and sanctions are among the issues delaying the space program<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Defence Ministry\u2019s Kupol constellation of satellites \u2014 an integrated space-based detection and combat control system \u2014 was designed to help the country track ballistic missile launches. Also known as EKS, Kupol serves as a replacement to the Soviet-era Oko and Oko-1 systems, which were operational from 1982 to 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia wants at least 10 Tundra satellites in high-elliptical orbit \u2014 as well as a number of geostationary satellites \u2014 to support EKS. In late 2016, then-First Deputy Commander of the Aerospace Forces Lt. Gen. Pavel Kurachenko said the service planned to have all 10 in orbit by 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But that year, the government-published newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta reported the Defence Ministry had plans to deploy a total of 10 by 2022. And around the same time as that report, a ministerial newspaper cited the commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces, then-Col. Gen. Sergei Surovikin, as saying the deployment of a group of orbital spacecraft for EKS is envisaged by 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe launch rate will be dictated by the need to replace aging or defunct satellites,\u201d according to Bart Hendrickx, a longtime observer of Russia\u2019s space program. \u201cThe minimum constellation they need for round-the-clock coverage is four. But it\u2019s always good to have some redundancy, not only to safeguard against satellite malfunctions but also to reduce the chance of false alarms.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the launch of the fourth Tundra satellite in May 2020, the general director of local aerospace company Energia announced the EKS constellation had reached \u201cthe minimum standard strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While development of the EKS system began in 2000, it wasn\u2019t until seven years later that the government signed a contract with Energia to supply the system. But repeated changes by the ministry to tactical and technical requirements caused production delays, according to the company.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hendrickx said the main reason for delays \u201cmust be production issues.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAnd one can be fairly sure that these have to do largely with the sanctions,\u201d he told Defense News, referring to economic restrictions placed on Russia as a result of its ongoing invasion of Ukraine<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Space tech<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Russia launched its first Tundra satellite in November 2015 on a Soyuz-2.1b rocket with a Fregat upper stage. The country planned to launch two satellites per year, but only launched one each in 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
A Soyuz-2.1b rocket carrying a Russian meteorological satellite lifts off near the Russia city of Uglegorsk on Nov. 28, 2017. (Kirill Kudryavtsev\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Part of the production problem involves microelectronics, which are critical for satellites. Russia is heavily dependent on foreign components for space technology, which in and of itself causes delays, a manager of a Russian defense company told Defense News.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDue to constant changes in suppliers and components, it is necessary to conduct new tests of systems every time, and evaluate them for the required characteristics of the Defence Ministry. This entails delays,\u201d the source said, speaking on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAt first it was Western electronics; after 2014, it became electronics from China and Southeast Asia to a greater extent,\u201d the source said. \u201cIn some cases, Chinese devices were purchased, from which microelectronics were extracted and installed on Russian devices.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In January, the head of Russian space agency Roscosmos<\/a>, Yuriy Borisov, claimed that despite Western sanctions preventing the supply of microelectronics to the country, China has agreed to sell components meant for rocket and space-related technology. As for completely replacing foreign equipment on satellites, Nikolai Sevostyanov, adviser to the director general of Roscosmos, estimated it will take at least five years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another issue for the Russian government is the quality of the Soyuz-2.1b rocket\u2019s Fregat upper stage, which has encountered at least five technical problems over the past nine years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Celestial placement<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Pavel Luzin<\/a>, an independent expert on space militarization, said it\u2019s unlikely Russia will deploy the entirety of Tundra satellites by 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRather, one launch per year will be continued. That is, they will complete the launch of satellites into the Molniya orbit no earlier than 2026,\u201d he predicted, referring to a medium Earth orbit best for observing high latitudes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to NASA, a satellite in that orbit takes 12 hours to complete its orbit, but spends about eight hours of that over one hemisphere. In the Molniya orbit, a satellite moves in an extreme ellipse with the Earth close to one edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An integrated space system, like the EKS, performs best with satellites both in a high-elliptical orbit and a geostationary one. According to Surovikin, \u201cthe deployment of a high-orbit space reconnaissance system should begin from 2023.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Russian production of geostationary satellites is lagging behind other advanced nations. In Energia\u2019s annual report for 2017, the company suggested the satellites were still in their design stage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cGeostationary satellites seem to have a different payload and may even have a fundamentally different design. That may also be causing problems,\u201d Hendrickx said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Angara vehicle<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Russia chose the Angara launch vehicle to send the EKS constellation\u2019s geostationary satellites into space to complement the Tundra systems. In 2020, the Defence Ministry signed a deal with space launch vehicle manufacturer Khrunichev Center for the production of four Angara-A5 rockets during the 2022-2024 time frame.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But when the ministry didn\u2019t receive any rockets in 2022, it sued the center. The courts have so far ruled that the company pay the government nearly a third of the ministry\u2019s monetary claim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ministry also sued Energia in 2019 over development disruptions related to a new Persei-KV upper stage for the Angara-A5. The court has since ruled in the government\u2019s favor, though not to the extent sought by the ministry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the last launch of an Angara-A5 in 2021, the designers tested a Persei upper stage, but it was unsuccessful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Russian President Vladimir Putin, center, looks at a Khrunichev facility with its CEO Alexei Varochko and Roscosmos chief Dmitry Rogozin on Sept. 6, 2019. (Mikhail Klimentyev\/Sputnik\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In September 2022, a representative of Khrunichev Center said full-fledged serial production of the Angara family would begin in the city of Omsk by 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was announced in 2015 that production would move from Moscow to Omsk. Vladimir Nesterov, who provided design services to Khrunichev and died late last year, wrote in his book \u201cSpace rocket complex Angara: History of creation,\u201d published in 2018, about the impact of the move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe established production cycle was disrupted, three large enterprises numbering about 16,000 people were withdrawn from the developer, production ties were undermined, development work suffered,\u201d according to the engineer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But despite delays and the absence of geostationary satellites for EKS, Russia\u2019s defense minister said the launch of the sixth Tundra satellite means the country can now continuously monitor priority areas \u201cin the Northern Hemisphere\u201d \u2014 a subtle reference to the United States and its North Atlantic allies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAt the same time, the current generation of satellites has a guaranteed period of at least seven years,\u201d Luzin said. \u201cBut they can serve further beyond the warranty period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe problems are likely to be with their planned renewal, which in any case will need to start [around] 2025-2030.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Russia wants at least 10 Tundra satellites in high-elliptical orbit to support its ballistic missile-tracking 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