Defense News\u2019 Top 100 list<\/a>, which ranks companies around the world based on their defense revenue, Kratos took 88th place \u2014 appearing on the list for just the second time in nearly a quarter century.<\/p>\n\n\n\nWhile the same group of large contractors remained at the top of this year\u2019s list, unveiled Aug. 7, experts say there\u2019s growing evidence the defense market may be evolving to offer better and more work to mid-tier firms, particularly those specializing in technologies central to the Defense Department\u2019s modernization plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For years, Defense Department officials have spoken about the importance of a diversified industrial base, and tried to create opportunities for companies beyond the top-tier firms that have traditionally dominated the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Five years ago, Fendley told Defense News in June, the best shot for a company like Kratos was to sell the DoD a part for a subsystem. A top-tier defense firm would then put that into a major system. Today, Fendley said, firms his size have a shot at scoring contracts for the subsystems themselves. And, he noted, greater opportunities could soon start opening up for smaller and mid-tier firms to compete at the major system level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThat momentum is still building,\u201d he said. But in the near future, \u201cthere will be receptiveness toward small and mid-tier companies even providing systems. Certainly in five [years], maybe one or two.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Top service officials have repeatedly said that in order to win the next war, the military must deploy more than traditional fighters, bombers and ships of the past. Instead, it should look to autonomous drones, unmanned surface maritime vessels, hypersonic weapons traveling at more than five times the speed of sound, and waves of small, cheap airborne drones armed with explosives.<\/p>\n\n\n\nA Saildrone Explorer unmanned surface vessel operates with the U.S. Coast Guard’s fast response cutter Robert Goldman in the Arabian Gulf on Oct. 7, 2022. (MCC Roland Franklin\/U.S. Navy)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\nTo make this a reality, the services are attempting ambitious modernization efforts \u2014 many of which hinge on technologies such as autonomous software and advanced rocket engines, often produced by nontraditional firms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
An upstart has little chance of becoming one of the top-ranked businesses that typically lead major, multibillion-dollar programs, defense contracting expert Alan Chvotkin told Defense News. But, he added, the bottom half of the Top 100 rankings could see a reshuffling in years to come \u2014 and that for a smaller company, a little growth could go a long way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIf you think about hypersonics and things of that sort, those are tailor-made for the mid-tier and the technology-oriented companies,\u201d Chvotkin said. \u201cI see opportunity there for awards, and for growth. \u2026 Ten percent growth in a smaller company is very different than what a larger company needs to sustain the beast.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Defense industry analyst Byron Callan of Capital Alpha Partners said that while tech-centric companies such as Shield AI and Anduril have not yet cracked the Top 100 list, they have an opening to do so in the years to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThis isn\u2019t so much about bending aluminum, or carbon fiber,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s about software. Typically when you see new entrants in the defense sector, it\u2019s because they ride a wave of new technology. \u2026 It\u2019s going to be things like [collaborative combat aircraft, or drone wingmen], or brand new software that will drive this forward.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And there are signs it may be starting to happen, including at Kratos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Its unmanned systems division has seen revenues grow 67% since 2018, to nearly $222 million. The steady growth in this area has helped Kratos bolster its bottom line, with the company landing back on the Top 100 list. This is the second time Kratos has made the list in nearly the last quarter century; <\/b>in 2021 it notched a spot at 94th before falling back off the list.<\/p>\n\n\n\n(Source: Kratos Defense and Security Solutions)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\nDefense News each year ranks the top defense contractors for its Top 100 list, by collecting and tallying information on firms\u2019 revenues from the companies, their annual reports, analysts and other research. Defense News tallied defense revenue of $534 billion in fiscal 2022 \u2014 a 10% decline from the $595 billion recorded the previous year. Nearly 56% of the defense revenues in FY22, or $298 billion, went to the 10 largest defense firms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Callan said the decline in revenue in FY22 was likely due to a variety of factors \u2014 including different companies making the list, international currency fluctuations, merger and acquisition activity, and individual companies\u2019 bottom lines shifting for their own reasons \u2014 and not a sign of overall weakness in the industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2018The tide has shifted\u2019<\/h1>\n\n\n\n For years, the Top 100 list has been dominated by mega-corporations such as Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, BAE Systems and Raytheon, now known as RTX, with only minor fluctuations in rankings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But the lower half of the list typically shows more churn, with new companies coming on and others falling off as their fortunes and the defense market shift.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Spirit AeroSystems \u2014 a Wichita, Kansas-based airframe manufacturer that supplies top defense firms \u2014 returned to the Top 100 list in 86th place this year. Its defense revenues grew 11% in FY22 to $650 million. Since Boeing spun off the firm in 2005, Spirit has made the list twice, with the other instance from 2021 when it eked into 99th place.<\/p>\n\n\n\nThen-First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, right, attends the opening of Spirit AeroSytems’ Aerospace Innovation Centre on Sept. 22, 2021, in Prestwick. (Andy Buchanan\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\nIn recent years, Spirit has provided structural components used in the E-7 Wedgetail, V-280 Valor Future Long Range Assault Aircraft and B-21 Raider to defense giants Boeing, Bell and Northrop Grumman, respectively. Spirit will also build the struts and nacelles for the B-52 bomber\u2032s major re-engining program.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In earnings calls this year, Spirit executives sounded bullish on the company\u2019s opportunities for future growth, even setting a goal of reaching $1 billion in defense and space revenues by 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a February call with analysts, a company executive said Spirit sees five growth areas: hypersonics, unmanned aerial systems, next-generation effects, next-generation aircraft and space.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, AeroVironment, whose Switchblade loitering munition has become a notable weapon in Ukraine\u2019s arsenal against Russia, also recorded an 8% increase in defense revenue to $294 million in FY22. It didn\u2019t make the Top 100 list, but its prominent role in the Russia-Ukraine war and its growth over the past year make it emblematic of the shifting landscape for smaller defense firms.<\/p>\n\n\n<\/atype-video-jwplayer>What makes the Switchblade drone so lethal in Ukraine?<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\nAeroVironment\u2019s chief executive, Wahid Nawabi, said in a June interview that the shift from waging war in the Middle East \u2014 which relied heavily on drones \u2014 to preparation for a great power conflict doesn\u2019t mean the end of smaller uncrewed systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cFor more than a century, the world thought about defense and warfare [in terms of] tanks, aircraft carriers, submarines, ships,\u201d Nawabi said. \u201cIt doesn\u2019t mean that those things are not going to play a role in the future \u2014 they will. But this concept of a distributed warfare, where smaller teams, smaller forces [are involved], is what we see in Ukraine. Small drones and loitering munitions have enabled Ukraine to do massively different things that nobody thought they could even do.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defense market still favors <\/b>the largest prime contractors with the lobbying power and political influence against which smaller companies can\u2019t compete, Nawabi noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Lockheed Martin and RTX led this year\u2019s Top 100 list, and they remained unchanged at slots 1 and 2 respectively. Northrop Grumman \u2014 the prime contractor on major programs such as the B-21 Raider bomber and LGM-35A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile \u2014 rose one slot to 3rd this year, and Aviation Industry Corp. of China moved up from 6th to 4th.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Boeing, which had been 3rd last year, slid to 5th, as its defense revenues dropped 12% to $30.8 billion. In 2022, Boeing\u2019s defense sector struggled with billions of dollars in charges on troubled programs such as the KC-46 Pegasus tanker, T-7 Red Hawk trainer and VC-25B Air Force One presidential aircraft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Dan Grazier, a military analyst for the watchdog group Project on Government Oversight, said the so-called revolving door of former Pentagon officials leaving public service for lucrative industry jobs often benefits major companies. This can make it harder for smaller firms to take advantage of such relationships, he explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\nThe U.S. Defense Department has long talked about wanting to foster more diversity in the industrial base. (AFP via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\nGrazier pointed to his organization\u2019s report titled \u201cBrass Parachutes,\u201d which found the top 20 defense contractors in FY16 had hired 645 former senior government officials, military officers, lawmakers and senior legislative staff as lobbyists, board members or senior executives in 2018. Nearly half of those revolving door hires, 312 of them, went to five of the largest U.S. defense firms in FY16: Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Raytheon, General Dynamics and Northrop Grumman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cBig defense contractors have pretty deep pockets,\u201d Grazier said. \u201cThere are probably a lot of these smaller companies that want to break into this market, that are trying to figure out ways that they can attract some of those high-profile, former Pentagon officials.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That has started to change in recent years, with ex-Trump administration officials, including former Defense Secretary Mark Esper, Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy and Air Force acquisition chief Will Roper, going to nontraditional firms after leaving the government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nawabi said a movement is underway that is creating an opening for companies such as AeroVironment to broaden their share.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe tide has shifted,\u201d Nawabi said. \u201cThe U.S. DoD has been more open to seeking companies like us to be more involved and have a better shot at these things. But it\u2019s still a struggle; it\u2019s nowhere near where it needs to be.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Seeking growth<\/h1>\n\n\n\n With the Air Force ramping up its effort to develop drone wingmen, the service is working with roughly 35 companies providing both aircraft and autonomous capabilities, service acquisition chief Andrew Hunter said in a May 18 discussion at George Mason University\u2019s Arlington, Virginia, campus. And over time, many more could join the effort, Hunter said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hunter said the Air Force has a \u201cheavy focus\u201d on nontraditional providers as it develops collaborative combat aircraft, or CCA, though traditional firms are also involved. Hunter did not identify those companies, and Kratos\u2019 Fendley declined to say what his company is specifically doing for the CCA program, citing its classified status.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But other companies and systems likely to be involved include Boeing, maker of the MQ-28 Ghost Bat drone flown as part of Australia\u2019s loyal wingman program, and Lockheed Martin, whose Skunk Works division has been working on its own drone wingmen concept.<\/p>\n\n\n\nA loyal wingman prototype flies over Australia, representing a milestone for the program. (FLTLT Ricky Treloar\/Australian Defence Department)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\nAsked about Northrop Grumman\u2019s plans for the CCA program, chief executive Kathy Warden said in a July 27 earnings call the company is \u201clooking at it closely.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hunter said businesses won\u2019t need to be able to create an entire CCA to participate in the program. If \u201ca company has real game\u201d and can produce a specific portion of an autonomous system, he noted, there is a place for it at the table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Air Force wants to \u201clower the stakes\u201d and have continuous competition on the CCA program so more companies can participate \u2014 and live to fight another day if one bid doesn\u2019t go their way, Hunter said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIf you don\u2019t succeed in the first increment of CCA, if you\u2019re not selected, that may be a one-year bump in your business plan, and you can come back strong the next year and win,\u201d he explained. \u201cNo one is ever out of the game if they still have game to offer.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since Eglin received its Valkyries, Fendley said, the base\u2019s work with the drones has rapidly progressed and focused on key technology areas related to autonomy and the operational effectiveness of manned-unmanned teaming. Kratos has also sold Valkyries to the Navy and Marine Corps to conduct similar tests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The company has expanded its production facilities and staffing to support that work, Fendley noted, and now the Valkyrie is in low-rate production for several customers to accommodate the growing demand for drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fendley said large, comprehensive drones are an example of the kind of complex systems mid-tier and smaller firms might provide within five years.<\/p>\n\n\n\nAn XQ-58A Valkyrie flies alongside an F-16 Fighting Falcon during a Dec. 15, 2022, test conducted by the 40th Flight Test Squadron at Eglin Air Force Base in Florida. (Samuel King Jr.\/U.S. Air Force)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\u201cOur biggest discriminator is our ability to look at a requirement and develop a very affordable solution against that requirement,\u201d Fendley explained. \u201cIt\u2019s not going to be the gold standard. We don\u2019t try to be the gold standard. We try to be the affordable solution that can satisfy the need.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The most important thing the Pentagon can do to foster this kind of growth, according to Callan of Capital Alpha Partners, is to start picking winners and awarding those kind of smaller firms significant contracts. That doesn\u2019t mean giving those companies awards simply for the sake of propping them up, he said, but the Pentagon must keep an open mind when considering bids, rather than reflexively reaching for the big-name primes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Defense Department has long talked a good game about wanting to foster more diversity in the industrial base, Callan noted. But if they don\u2019t put real money behind it \u2014 as soon as the FY25 budget proposal \u2014 the investors some smaller companies rely upon will start to look elsewhere, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cFrankly, DoD at times is going to have to take risk\u201d on companies that don\u2019t have as extensive a track record as traditional firms, Callan said. \u201cIt can\u2019t just be $5 [million] or $10 million contracts. If the contracts aren\u2019t there, the capital is going to dry up and people are going to find other sandboxes to play in.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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