{"id":37177,"date":"2024-06-03T09:33:18","date_gmt":"2024-06-03T09:33:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/uncategorized\/2024\/06\/03\/ai-regulators-fear-getting-drowned-out-by-hype-of-wars\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T01:07:42","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T01:07:42","slug":"ai-regulators-fear-getting-drowned-out-by-hype-of-wars","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/artificial-intelligence\/2024\/06\/03\/ai-regulators-fear-getting-drowned-out-by-hype-of-wars\/","title":{"rendered":"AI regulators fear getting drowned out by hype of wars"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

BERLIN \u2014 A fighter jet hurtles toward an adversary head-on. Mere moments before a collision, it swerves \u2014 but not before dealing a lethal blow to its opponent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This risky maneuver would be reckless even for the most skilled pilot. But to artificial intelligence, such a simulation scenario showcases one of the most effective dogfighting techniques<\/a>, scoring kill rates of nearly 100% against human pilots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a warfighting revolution turbocharged by the conflict in Ukraine<\/a>, autonomous decision-making is quickly reshaping modern combat, experts told Defense News in a series of interviews.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Weapons that can decide for themselves whom or what to target \u2014 and even when to kill \u2014 are entering military arsenals. They have experts worried that an uncontrolled arms race is emerging, and that warfare could become so fast-paced that humans cannot keep up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is the speed, in particular, that may prove a \u201cslippery slope,\u201d said Natasha Bajema, a senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, a nongovernmental organization. As the speed of conflict increases with greater autonomy on the battlefield, the incentives to delegate even more functions to the machines could become ever stronger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDo we really think that in the middle of a battle between China and the U.S., someone is going to say: \u2018Hold on, we can\u2019t let the machine do that\u2019?\u201d Bajema asked, referring to the allure of what she described as war moving at machine speed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s the most competitive race for advantage that we\u2019ve seen since the race for nuclear weapons,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The appetite for more autonomy in weapons, fanned by combat in Ukraine and Gaza<\/a>, has drowned out long-standing calls for limits on AI in military applications. But they still exist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ambassador Alexander Kmentt, the director of the Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Department of the Austrian Foreign Ministry, called the scenario of trigger-pulling, AI-enabled robots a true \u201cOppenheimer moment<\/a>,\u201d a reference to the birth of the atomic bomb in the 1940s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Austria has been leading an international push to bring governments from around the world to the table to draft the rules of war for a new era.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In late April, the country\u2019s government hosted the first global conference on autonomous weapon systems in Vienna\u2019s grand Hofburg Palace. Kmentt said it exceeded his expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAt times during the preparations, I was concerned about attendance, that the room would be half empty,\u201d the ambassador recalled in an interview with Defense News. Instead, there were more than 1,000 delegates from 144 countries present in Vienna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEven those states that used to see the topic as some sort of sci-fi now perceive it as being incredibly timely,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Much of the Global South<\/a> \u2014 a term sometimes used to couple countries that reject the hierarchy of world politics<\/a> \u2014 now seems interested in restricting the technology, according to Kmentt, though little could be achieved without buy-in from the major global powers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unintended consequences<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

For all their military appeal, AI-enabled weapons come with the flaws of a technology still in its infancy. Machine vision, in particular, is still too prone to errors, said Zachary Kallenborn, lead researcher at Looking Glass USA, a consultancy that deals with questions surrounding advanced weapons systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cA single pixel is enough to confuse a bomber with a dog, a civilian with a combatant,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the coming years, experts expect to see an accumulating number of autonomous weapons on the battlefield with increasingly sophisticated abilities. Even without technological mishaps, this might lead to a heightened risk of misunderstanding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The disposable nature of drones, for example, could lead to more aggressive or risky behaviors, said Bajema. Intercepting an autonomous system would likely elicit a different reaction among adversaries than downing a crewed plane, she said, but where precisely the line falls is hard to determine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The race toward AI is governed by what she called the \u201cterminator problem\u201d \u2014 if one state has it, all believe they need it to feel secure \u2014 an environment that makes regulating the technology so difficult.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, today\u2019s geopolitical climate is not very amenable to multilateral arms control, she added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given those odds, Kmentt said he is merely looking for a compromise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s clear that there will be no universal consensus on the topic,\u201d he noted. \u201cThere\u2019s hardly any issue where this exists, and certain countries seem to have no interest in developing international law. So we have to accept that, and instead work together with those countries that are interested in developing these rules.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But he admitted to being somewhat pessimistic about the chances of success.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThese weapons will majorly define the future of armed conflicts, and as a result the voices of militaries worldwide who want these weapons will become louder and louder,\u201d Kmentt predicted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For now, the target date of 2026 looms large for the community of AI nonproliferation advocates; it refers to the United Nations\u2019 mandate of setting \u201cclear prohibitions and restrictions on autonomous weapon systems,\u201d in the words of U.N. Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSo far, there is insufficient political will to make something happen due to the difficult geopolitical situation,\u201d Kmentt said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2026 target is not an arbitrary date, he added. \u201cIf we haven\u2019t succeeded with anything by then, the window for preventive action has closed.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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