{"id":37587,"date":"2025-01-03T14:50:33","date_gmt":"2025-01-03T14:50:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/uncategorized\/2025\/01\/03\/money-musk-and-mission-creep-how-trump-could-shape-dods-space-drift\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T01:13:16","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T01:13:16","slug":"money-musk-and-mission-creep-how-trump-could-shape-dods-space-drift","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/space\/2025\/01\/03\/money-musk-and-mission-creep-how-trump-could-shape-dods-space-drift\/","title":{"rendered":"Money, Musk and mission creep: How Trump could shape DOD\u2019s space drift"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

When Congress authorized the creation of the Space Force in December of 2019, the service\u2019s leadership viewed its small size as an asset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gen. Jay Raymond, its inaugural chief of space operations, likened the newest military branch to a startup company, telling lawmakers the service would leverage its size to move fast and stay nimble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe are establishing a Space Force that is lean, agile and mission-focused,\u201d Raymond said in a March 2020 House Armed Services Committee hearing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since then, the service\u2019s budget has doubled to around $30 billion in fiscal 2025<\/a>, and today\u2019s leaders have called for even more resources in the coming years to strengthen the military\u2019s defenses against adversaries in space, build an arsenal of offensive-capable systems and take on new missions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat budget is going to need to double or triple over time to be able to fund the things we\u2019re actually going to need to have,\u201d Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall told Defense News last summer<\/a>. \u201cSomebody\u2019s going to have to make some decisions about whether to give us a bigger budget overall for this or do some internal trades.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The path to a larger Space Force budget isn\u2019t clear \u2014 even as former President Donald Trump, who oversaw the creation of the service, prepares to begin his second term in the coming weeks. Despite his administration\u2019s past emphasis on space policy, analysts and former defense officials told Defense News Trump\u2019s enthusiasm for space doesn\u2019t necessarily portend a larger budget for the Space Force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Todd Harrison, a senior defense policy fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said it\u2019s unlikely Trump will get directly involved in the ins and outs of the Space Force\u2019s budget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe know that Trump is obviously very supportive of the Space Force,\u201d Harrison said in an interview. \u201cWhen it comes down to actually proposing big increases in the Space Force\u2019s budget, I\u2019d say what matters more is the Secretary of Defense.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump plans to nominate Pete Hegseth, a Fox News host and Army veteran<\/a>, to lead the Pentagon. Harrison noted there\u2019s no indication of Hegseth\u2019s posture toward the Space Force \u2014 whether he\u2019d be willing to go along with a larger space budget at the expense of another service.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI think he\u2019s walking into it with basically a clean slate,\u201d Harrison said. \u201cSo, then I would think it would be up to the Space Force leadership to get in early and make their case.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump has yet to reveal who he plans to nominate as Air Force secretary, or SECAF in Pentagon parlance, a role that provides civilian oversight of the Space Force\u2019s budget. Were the president to choose a secretary with a space background, that could drive more investment, Harrison noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat would be revolutionary,\u201d he said. \u201cIf you had a SECAF that was very supportive of space, you could very well see them go forward with a [proposal] that significantly increases the Space Force\u2019s budget, either using a higher overall topline or using offsetting cuts within the Air Force\u2019s budget.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Doug Loverro, a consultant who has held key space leadership roles in DOD, NASA and the National Reconnaissance Office, said regardless of who fills the leadership role, the Space Force will have to make a strong case to the new administration that it needs more funding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That task, according to Loverro, will likely be an uphill battle. While the service has made plans for new architectures and has worked to speed up its acquisition programs through organizations like the Space Rapid Capabilities Office and the Space Development Agency, he said it hasn\u2019t proven it can field operational capabilities on faster timelines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI think when the new administration comes in, they are going to look at that and they\u2019re going to say, \u2018What the heck have you been doing with all the money,\u2019\u201d Loverro said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strength in numbers<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Loverro said he expects the incoming class of Pentagon leaders to put more of an emphasis on fielding new systems than on demonstrating concepts \u2014 an approach that features heavily in Project 2025<\/a>, a 900-page conservative blueprint for the second Trump administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the president-elect sought to distance itself from Project 2025 during his campaign, he has since acknowledged he supports some of its policy recommendations. The document includes a section on needed Space Force reforms that calls for the service to \u201cend the current study phase of concept development and fielding of offensive systems.\u201d It also specifically mentions the Space Development Agency, or SDA, recommending the organization adhere to more aggressive timelines for fielding satellites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SDA is on a path to launching hundreds of spacecraft to support the Space Force\u2019s missile tracking and data transport missions, but its first few launches are largely focused on demonstrating the capability and have been delayed by several months<\/a>. The agency expects to have its first tranche of operational satellites in orbit by 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey want them to stop being experiments. They want them to be operational capability,\u201d Loverro said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Project 2025 also recommends the Space Force \u201crestore architectural balance\u201d between offensive and defensive capabilities, advocating for an approach to deterrence that includes protecting assets and fighting back against adversaries that threaten its systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That approach could drive more investment in so-called counterspace systems<\/a>, most of which are funded through the Space Force\u2019s roughly $6 billion classified budget. While the service has been talking more about the need for offensive weapons, much of its public-facing strategy for dealing with threats in space has centered on proliferated architectures like those SDA is launching.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The idea is, essentially, strength in numbers \u2014 having enough satellites in orbit that if an enemy destroys a few, the military can still perform its mission with the remaining spacecraft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sam Wilson, director of strategy and program support at the Aerospace Corporation\u2019s Center for Space Policy and Strategy, said that while the first Trump administration supported proliferation as a method for deterrence, the next four years could expand on that approach. Whether that will include a more open discussion about fielding the types of space weapons China and Russia are demonstrating, or pursuing new operational approaches like sustained maneuver, is yet to be seen, he told Defense News.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBased on the unclassified budget, the Space Force, to me, has largely thought about protecting its spacecraft using proliferation,\u201d Wilson said. \u201cBut these other approaches could get attention to resources as well in the new administration.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strategy that centers on large fleets of small satellites could carry with it a hefty price tag, he added, especially if the Space Force continues to expand that approach beyond SDA\u2019s missile tracking and data transport constellations to other mission areas like positioning, navigation and timing and space domain awareness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s expensive,\u201d Wilson said. \u201cWe\u2019ve seen it in several missions, and I think we may see it in more, but the degree to which that continues to be a point of emphasis is something to observe.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Loverro said a greater focus on counterspace systems could come as soon as the fiscal 2026 budget request, which the White House traditionally releases in February or March but is often delayed during a presidential transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s always in the conversation, but we haven\u2019t really demonstrated that we\u2019re fielding anything or that we intend to,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd we haven\u2019t really talked about what\u2019s the true intent of our counterspace ambitions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That shift could come with more funding attached, but Harrison noted that the Space Force can demonstrate its dominance in space without a larger budget. For example, he said, if Moscow continues jamming and spoofing GPS signals over Ukraine \u2014 as it has been doing since the start of the war \u2014 the U.S. could turn off GPS access over Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere are things you could do that would be fairly immediate that wouldn\u2019t even cost anything, but it would show a lot more strength,\u201d he said. \u201cIf Trump is trying to be buddy-buddy with Putin, maybe he wouldn\u2019t do that. But if he wants to show strength when our space systems are being attacked, that would be one way of doing it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Favorite child?<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

At the White House, Trump has named Russell Vought as his pick to lead the Office of Management and Budget, a position he also held during Trump\u2019s first administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OMB is responsible for coordinating a yearly federal budget proposal that reflects the president\u2019s policy objectives. Given Trump\u2019s likely interest in seeing the service he helped create succeed, that could bode will for the Space Force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI suspect you\u2019re willing to spend more money on your child than you are to spend money on somebody else\u2019s child,\u201d Loverro said. \u201cSo, there will be a natural tendency for Trump to want to save the Space Force because it\u2019s his child, or at least he perceives it as his child.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, because the president doesn\u2019t typically get involved in the details of the budget process, Vought will likely be the gatekeeper for significant program increases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vought was a co-author of Project 2025 and is known for being a fiscal hawk. During the first Trump administration, Vought played a central role in budget fights between the president and Congress. His office helped devise a plan to pull billions of dollars from the defense budget to pay for the president\u2019s plan to build a wall on the southern U.S. border<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Harrison said it\u2019s not clear what stance OMB would take in a Space Force funding debate, but Vought\u2019s reputation as a budget hardliner makes a major increase unlikely<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI don\u2019t think the prospects look good right now unless Trump is able to change the politics around the budget,\u201d he said. \u201cHis OMB choice is very much a fiscal conservative wanting to cut government spending.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another area to watch for signs of Space Force budget growth is Congress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Republican majority in both the House and the Senate traditionally means a funding boost for defense initiatives. But current divisions in the party over defense spending could change that narrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the Senate side, Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker, R-Miss., has called for a $55 billion increase in defense spending. In a 52-page paper outlining his proposal, he advocated for more funding to protect U.S. space systems and target China\u2019s growing arsenal of space weapons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe U.S. Space Force has enjoyed real budgetary growth since its inception, but that does not mean it cannot do more. Classified programs in development must be procured at scale,\u201d he said. \u201cChina\u2019s over-the-horizon kill chains are all deeply reliant on space. Without these capabilities, the \u2018bubble\u2019 shrinks,\u201d he added, referring to the notional radius in which Beijing operates its forward defenses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the House, the chances of a seeing larger defense budget in the near term are \u201cnot good,\u201d Harrison said, especially as the House Freedom Caucus<\/a> \u2014 a small group of budget hawks with outsize influence due to the Republican party\u2019s narrow majority \u2014 proposes aggressive cuts to government spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey are pushing for such a high level of spending cuts that there\u2019s no way to get what they want without at least capping defense, if not cutting,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Loverro also predicted a \u201cdecreased stomach\u201d for major budget increases, particularly the tripling proposed by Kendall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cObviously nobody\u2019s going to take $60 billion away from the Navy or the Army to give it to the Space Force,\u201d he said. \u201cSo, unless Congress is willing to raise the budget by $100 billion, I think the likelihood of seeing a large increase in the Space Force budget of the kind of numbers they\u2019re talking about is extremely low.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s wild card<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

While it\u2019s unclear whether leaders within the Pentagon, Congress and the White House will support more funding for the Space Force, experts pointed out that Trump\u2019s outward aversion to the status quo could uproot many of their assumptions about the next four years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, they noted, the Space Force\u2019s establishment came amid major resistance within the Pentagon and with the support of small cadre of powerful advocates in the House Armed Services Committee, including Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Ala., and now-retired Rep. Jim Cooper, D-Tenn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAll of those senior leaders had come out publicly said,\u2019 No, this is a bad idea,\u2019\u201d Harrison said. \u201cTrump came in separately after that . . . and said, \u2018Yeah, we\u2019re going to create it.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One known wild card in Trump\u2019s second term is Elon Musk\u2019s role as an advisor to the president-elect. The billionaire CEO of SpaceX and Tesla is set to co-lead a new government efficiency office and could influence the White House\u2019s space policy priorities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SpaceX has billions of dollars in government contracts with NASA and the Pentagon and is one of the top providers of military space launch services for the Space Force. The firm\u2019s Starlink and Starshield communication satellites are also in high demand from commercial and government customers, including the military.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Musk\u2019s proximity to Trump could have implications for the Space Force\u2019s budget, Harrison and Loverro suggested his influence is more likely to affect policies, particularly those that affect SpaceX.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unless Musk goes to Trump with requests to increase funding for specific programs, Loverro noted, it\u2019s unlikely he\u2019ll drive decisions at that level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf [Trump] gets the bit in his mouth that he wants to get something done and somehow he\u2019s convinced that we need to double the Space Force budget, that could happen,\u201d he said. \u201cBut that kind of detail typically flows below him.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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