With the counter-drone market “red hot,” demand for affordable short-range radars could grow tenfold by 2030, Frankenberg told Defense News at the Eurosatory defense show near Paris last month. Echodyne, based near Seattle, is shipping radars as fast as it can make them, and will cut the ribbon on a new facility this month that at full rate will lift production capacity tenfold.

As drones have become the main killers on the battlefield in Ukraine and inflicted billions of damage in the Middle East, counter-unmanned aerial systems could be spotted all over the 2026 edition of Eurosatory, the world’s biggest defense show. The Echodyne team tallied at least 29 stands displaying the firm’s radars integrated in C-UAS offerings.

“There is a rush of interest globally for counter-drone,” Frankenberg said. “The Ukraine war made it obvious to everyone that drones had changed the face of warfare, but the Iran war made it obvious that everything’s at risk.”

Defeating drones starts with detection, and suppliers of relatively small and affordable radars such as Echodyne, Blighter and Robin Radar have benefited from surging interest in anti-drone warfare, which doesn’t require the powerful and expensive radars that equip missile and air-defense systems.

“The more traditional defense-radar companies make amazing radars,” Frankenberg said, citing RTX, SRC and Thales. “But they all cost half a million dollars or a million dollars a face. If you have a million cheap, lethal drones, you can’t have one battlefield-wide system at $5 million or $10 million. You have to have a ton of inexpensive, yet highly effective systems.”

Echodyne’s compact, solid-state radars use the firm’s proprietary metamaterials technology, with densely packed antenna arrays to electronically steer radar beams without much of the complexity and cost of traditional phased-array systems.

The firm was founded in 2014 as a spin-off from Intellectual Ventures, with early investors including Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates. Frankenberg said the reason to create Echodyne was to make radars with the performance of active electronically scanned array radars “for fractions of the cost.”

Echodyne’s small radars, about as big as a hard-cover book, cost around $40,000 a panel, while its bigger radars, the size of a small carry-on suitcase, are in the $160,000 range, the CEO said.

The company is investing $40 million in a new facility that will lift production capacity to 30,000 radar panels a year, a mix of smaller and larger models. Frankenberg said Echodyne has advanced its entire 2027 expansion plan to this year, with the new plant already online before the official ribbon cutting in July.

“There’s just massive demand now, and it goes back to the point that the only way to counter mass is with mass, and so there’s just going to be a huge number of these systems,” Frankenberg said. “We’re building this new factory for a reason.”

The market for small radars will probably reach hundreds of thousands of panels by 2030 from a market that today numbers in the tens of thousands, according to Frankenberg. He said Echodyne is currently leading in the segment, but didn’t want to provide an exact number for market share.

Echodyne’s first radar, the book-sized EchoFlight, designed for commercial drone collision avoidance, got a lot of press but “wasn’t going in a hurry anywhere commercially,” the CEO said. The firm got its first big break in 2017, when Anduril adopted EchoGuard for its Sentry autonomous surveillance tower, which in turn kicked off interest in the radar for ground-to-air drone detection.

The company developed the larger EchoShield radar using its metamaterials technology for clients wanting more detection range, and introduced the model around the time of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as demand for military counter-drone systems took off. Defense now accounts for about 65% of sales, a reversal of the mix before 2022.

EchoGuard can typically track a small quadcopter drone at 1 km (1,100 yards), while the larger EchoShield can do the same at 3 km and track more than 1,000 objects at a given time. The radars are usually part of a sensor stack including optical sensors and often also radio-frequency detection.

While “exquisite systems” for traditional air defense won’t go away, Echodyne expects much greater demand for affordable short-range radar than high-end systems, according to Frankenberg.

“You’re going to need a massive number of short-range systems. All those short-range systems need to be able to detect and track the incoming threat, which means they’re going to need some kind of radar.”

Echodyne has outgrown the startup phase and considers itself a medium-sized technology company, with around 60% of revenue from the United States and 40% from international markets, Frankenberg said.

The firm worked with Northrop Grumman around 2020 to integrate EchoGuard on Bushmaster chain guns for counter-drone fire control, with Frankenberg saying radar cueing solved tracking problems that optical sensors alone struggled with. That approach has since been adopted by turret makers including Kongsberg and Rheinmetall.

For any platform with a gun, “that gun needs to be able to defend the platform,” Frankenberg said. “Every maneuver unit should have this. At the end of the day, is that your most exquisite counter- drone system? Maybe not, but does it allow you to defend yourself in battle? Yes.”

The CEO said turning guns into anti-drone weapons requires a radar, maybe a computer upgrade depending on the platform, software algorithms, “and then the gun is ready to go. We think there’s going to be huge demand for this.”

Echodyne radars are used on high-powered microwave C-UAS from Epirus and ThinKom, laser-based systems from AeroVironment and Electro Optic Systems, in European laser-weapon programs, and in directed-energy projects with primes who make their own radars, Frankenberg said. Other solutions include pallets loaded with interceptors, and an Echodyne radar to cue them.

“We’re on pretty much anything you can think of in the counter drone space,” Frankenberg said.

No single system will win the C-UAS race, “you’re going to see a mass of systems,” Frankenberg said. He said lasers and high-powered microwaves are good options where appetite for collateral damage is low, whereas rotary machine guns are extremely effective “if you don’t care about collateral effects.”

With the proliferation of new drone counters, “I’m sure it’s confusing for buyers,” Frankenberg said. “There’s going be room for a lot of them to be effective and be winners, but which ones, it’s hard to pick right now.”

As for Echodyne, the firm became profitable last year and is open to all long-term options, including staying private, an initial public offering or an acquisition, according to the CEO. Frankenberg said his investors right now are “incredibly happy” with how business is going.

“We’re clearly in the middle of this market that’s red hot, and so from that standpoint, it makes sense that we would be attractive to people,” Frankenberg said. “We’re profitable, attractively profitable, so we can run as long as we want, but good business management is, always be open to what comes around.”

ICEYE is currently manufacturing satellites at a pace of 50 per year, Modrzewski said at the European Defence & Security Summit in the Belgian capital, and the goal is to ramp up production to two satellites a week as the company responds to surging demand from European militaries.

The CEO said future constellations will be “in the hundreds of satellites,” pointing to the example of Elon Musk’s Starlink with its thousands of satellites. He said ICEYE’s planned manufacturing line for 100 satellites a year “is still too small, so we will keep on growing that production.”

European governments are trying to reduce their dependency on the United States for a number of critical defense enablers, including satellite intelligence, and ICEYE has benefited from efforts to close the gap. The company has said the U.S. halt of intelligence sharing in March 2025 really drove home the need in Europe for sovereign access to space-based intel.

The ICEYE CEO said Germany’s order for a 40-satellite constellation in December was “the first-ever European move to actually create a properly large tactical system in Europe.”

The company was founded in 2014 by Modrzewski and Pekka Laurila as a Finnish university spin-off, and it supplies Earth-observation data using synthetic aperture radar, or SAR for short, which ICEYE initially intended as a tool to help ships avoid sea ice.

ICEYE took less than 12 months from contract signature to deliver full radar-satellite systems to Poland, Greece and Portugal, according to Modrzewski, calling that a big change in an industry where one satellite used to take five years.

“Here we are talking about three different countries, each of which has received a constellation of five, six, seven within less than 12 months,” the CEO said. “Those are off-the-shelf satellites, that’s how crazy it got right now. And it is what we need in order to be responsive to the threats that are outside of our borders.”

Modrzewski said the cost of an ICEYE system is ten times lower than that of legacy systems, allowing the likes of Sweden, Finland and the Netherlands to own not just satellites but entire constellations.

He said ICEYE has delivered a four-satellite system to the Polish Armed Forces, adding that the country is continuing to grow its constellation, “and soon they will have high tactical capability which is fully sovereign to Poland.” The Finnish company signed an agreement in May 2025 to provide Poland with three SAR satellites, with an option for three more.

Modrzewski has been pushing a proposal for a system of 1,000 satellites called Constellation Europe that would combine space-based ground observation, space situational awareness and in-space defense capabilities. He said access to space-based surveillance to “know, react or act” has been a common thread in recent conflicts, and a capability that Europe is still missing.

“The war in Ukraine and the war in the Middle East, they differ in many ways, but they actually are extremely similar in the fact that the tactical access to satellite intelligence has proven to be critical for both sides,” Modrzewski said.

With a growing number of countries such as India, Japan and Australia trying to move away from a purely U.S.-based supply chain, there is “a massive opportunity for our European defense sector” as long as European firms can show credibility in their home markets, according to Modrzewski.

He said Constellation Europe would be a way for the European space industry to show it produces “capabilities which are equal or better to our counterparts,” and is happy share those capabilities to contribute to a “bigger, safer world” of middle powers.

He said Europe was previously able to jointly procured a satellite-navigation system with Galileo, and now needs to do the same for Earth observation.

“if we really want to catch up to this massive gap that’s developing between us and the United States, when it comes to space, we’ve got to start moving fast and acting now,” the ICEYE CEO said.

ICEYE raised €450 million (US$510 million) in a Series F funding round earlier this month that valued the satellite company at more than €10 billion, with the firm saying it will use the proceeds to expand its global footprint.

While the latest funding round was led by a U.S. investment firm, Modrzewski said the majority of the ICEYE board is European, the company’s technology was developed in Europe and being a European firm “is critical.”

“Them choosing to put money into European company actually is a statement of the fact that they see something more unique over here,” Modrzewski said. “So I consider this a win.”

The development comes shortly after Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced the company has offered Poland a role in its X-BAT autonomous vertical-takeoff fighter jet program, including some of the manufacturing activities for the craft.

Shield AI said in a statement that the V-BAT will be deployed aboard a Polish Navy vessel, ensuring maritime domain awareness and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) support to the force.

“V-BAT has proven its capabilities in Ukraine and beyond, particularly in environments where communications and GPS links are disrupted or denied,” Ryan Tseng, Shield AI’s president, co-founder and chief strategy officer, was quoted in the statement. “Operations in the Baltic Sea, where security threats against critical energy and communications infrastructure are becoming more frequent, demand reliable sensor platforms and systems in all-weather conditions and sea states.”

The Armament Agency, the Polish ministry’s procurement arm, said in a statement that “the delivery of the system, which comprises several platforms, is planned for later in 2026.”

The deal puts Poland in line to become the first country on NATO’s eastern flank to acquire the drone. Warsaw will join other operators, including Greece and the Netherlands, as well as the U.S. Navy and the Japan Maritime Self Defence Force, according to data from Shield AI.

“In addition to the aircraft themselves, the V-BAT system comes with ground control stations, antennas, spares, and maintenance equipment, and other operating equipment needed to maintain operational readiness,” a spokesperson for Shield AI told Defense News.

The spokesperson said that “Shield AI is actively pursuing partnerships with Polish industry to support future autonomy, aviation, and defense programs. We look forward to expanding our engagement with Poland and sharing additional details in the coming months.”

Since 2025, when Poland launched the Drone Force, its latest military component, the country has accelerated purchases of various classes of unmanned systems. Last month, the nation also joined the Pentagon’s counter-drone initiative to gain access to a marketplace that connects partner countries with emerging technology suppliers.

Both awed by — and apprehensive about — U.S. stealth capabilities, China has invested heavily in developing stealth aircraft, as well as anti-stealth air defenses.

But China has learned the wrong lessons from America’s stealth program, according to U.S. Air Force analysis released this month. China is convinced that advanced technology is the foundation of U.S. stealth capabilities.

But in reality, the key to American success has been treating stealth as just one component of integrated aerial warfare, the report said.

China’s “assessments of U.S. stealth often diverge from technical reality and operational practice,” said Maj. Derek Ecklebe, a U.S. Air Force officer and a fellow at the Air Force’s China Aerospace Studies Institute.

The reality is that the U.S. treats stealth “as a multifaceted capability that integrates technology with operational tactics to maintain air superiority,” he said. “Stealth technology, while expensive, complex, and important, is only part of the equation.”

China is responding to U.S. stealth warfare with a mixture of fear and confidence.

“Chinese views of stealth as an asymmetric yet counterable U.S. advantage have driven a bifurcated strategy: robust investments in layered air defenses and a rapid program to field domestically developed [low observability] aircraft,” Ecklebe said.

Ironically, the U.S. military and intelligence agencies are often depicted as being fixated on technology at the expense of strategy and tactics. But in Ecklebe’s view, it is China that is overemphasizing tech.

Because Chinese experts believe that technology is at the heart of American stealth warfare, then it follows that the best defense against stealth is also technological. Thus, China has poured resources into developing anti-stealth sensors.

Chinese media and military journals suggest that better sensors, such as low-frequency radar, are the best countermeasure against stealth.

“These sources treat stealth as a technical problem to solve with new detection tools,” Ecklebe said. “They present low-frequency radars, passive sensors, and terahertz sensors as potential solutions that could soon counter U.S. advantages.”

But these stealth-busting technologies are either unproven or have limitations, such as accuracy, filtering out clutter or vulnerability to electronic warfare.

“In practice, these systems face significant physical and operational constraints,” said Ecklebe.

Nonetheless, Chinese air defenses should not be underestimated, even against stealth aircraft like the F-35 and B-2.

“What makes China’s defenses formidable is not any single radar or missile, but rather their integration into a unified IADS [integrated air defense system],” Ecklebe warned. “The PLA [People’s Liberation Army] has prioritized multi-domain integrated operations, pulling data from low-frequency early-warning systems, passive detectors, and even satellites into shared command centers at the corps level.^”

This same enchantment with technology applies to China’s own stealth aircraft.

China’s J-35 — which looks remarkably like the U.S. F-35 — “replicates features of the U.S. F-35 platform but prioritizes hardware metrics over U.S.-style software-defined adaptability coupled with [tactics, techniques and procedures] modernization,” said Ecklebe.

Ecklebe suggests that China’s perceptions of U.S. stealth aircraft — and their vulnerabilities — may be influenced by problems with Chinese stealth planes, which suffer from issues, such as unreliable engines.

“Mirror-imaging may further contribute to these distortions, as PLA planners project domestic constraints, such as WS-10 and AL-31F engine reliability and modernization issues that limit J-10 and J-20 sortie rates, onto U.S. systems,” he said.

One question is whether Chinese misconceptions of U.S. stealth could increase the chance of war. If Chinese leaders are convinced that better sensors can neutralize American stealth airpower, then they may feel more emboldened to invade Taiwan.

“Chinese strategists appear to view stealth not as an insurmountable barrier but as a factor that can be managed through overwhelming volume and integrated networks, leading to a deterrence posture that emphasizes rapid, decisive action to limit U.S. involvement,” Ecklebe said.

“Gen. Christopher Donahue, commanding general of U.S. Army Europe and Africa and commander of NATO’s Allied Land Command, will relinquish command on July 2, 2026,” Army spokeswoman Cynthia O. Smith said in a statement.

“Maj. Gen. Christopher Norrie, deputy commander, U.S. Army Europe and Africa will perform the duties of the commanding general. The Army thanks Gen. Donahue for his leadership of U.S. Army Europe and Africa.”

The Army did not provide a reason for the abrupt leadership change. Donahue’s exit was first reported Tuesday by The Atlantic.

The West Point graduate took command of U.S. Army Europe and Africa in December 2024 after previously leading the XVIII Airborne Corps and the 82nd Airborne Division. Donahue in 2021 oversaw security during the frenzied U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

A night-vision Pentagon photograph showing Donahue boarding the last C-17 out of Kabul became one of the defining images capturing the end of a nearly 20-year war.

His departure comes amid the Pentagon’s broad senior leadership changes under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who in April asked U.S. Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George to step down and retire ahead of the typical four-year term.

Since taking office, Hegseth has removed more than a dozen senior military leaders, including former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. C.Q. Brown and former Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti.

The two holding companies that currently control KNDS, French state-owned Giat Industries and German family-owned Wegmann & Co, will together sell about 20% of the company, KNDS said in a statement on Wednesday. The Federal Republic of Germany agreed with Wegmann to buy 40% of the maker of armored vehicles, while France will hang on to the remainder of its stake through Giat.

France and Germany reached agreement on Monday on becoming equal shareholders in KNDS, paving the way for the company to forge ahead with plans for a stock-market listing announced in December. The operation also allows the group of German heirs that collectively own half of the company to cash out, after a surge in defense stocks following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

“The planned IPO is a natural next step for KNDS,” CEO Jean-Paul Alary said in a statement. “It will increase our strategic agility and support continued investment in capacity, innovation and next-generation technologies.”

As share prices for listed defense companies have surged in recent years amid rising defense investment, Europe has seen a string of initial public offerings, including German tank-transmission maker Renk and French night-vision maker Exosens in 2024, German shipbuilder TKMS in 2025 and arms maker Czechoslovak Group, or CSG, in January this year.

The STOXX Europe Targeted Defence Index, which is weighted for the portion of sales its constituent companies get from defense, has climbed sixfold in the past five years.

KNDS says it targets revenue growth of around 30% in 2026, after posting sales of €4.4 billion (US$ 5 billion) and operating profit of €661 million in 2025. The company reported a record order backlog of €33.1 billion at the end of December.

The Federal Republic of Germany plans to buy its stake in KNDS via an acquisition by the Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau, with the transaction to be finalized ahead of the stock-market listing, according to the company. The German investment remains subject to a number of conditions, including a special federal mandate following approval by the parliamentary Budget Committee, KNDS said.

“Germany’s intention to invest alongside the French State is a strong signal of confidence in KNDS and its future,” KNDS Chairman Tom Enders said in the statement.

The existing shareholders will sell about 20% of KNDS to institutional investors through private placements, with no public offering planned. The listing won’t include the sale of any new shares, Alary told Defense News at the Eurosatory defense show outside Paris last week.

Giat and Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau will remain long-term shareholders, with a 10-year lockup period expected to apply to both owners, according to KNDS. During that period, a sale of KNDS shares that would result in the stake of either the French or German investment vehicles falling below 30% would require prior approval of the other party.

The transaction is also expected to introduce a loyalty share plan, where shares that are held by registered owners for two years are granted double voting rights.

KNDS is a strategic asset for both France and Germany as the supplier of both countries’ main battle tanks and self-propelled artillery, and with a lead role in development of the future Main Ground Combat System designed to replace France’s Leclerc tanks and Germany’s Leopard.

The company at Eurosatory showed a proposed a main battle tank with a French turret and gun mounted on a German Leopard 2 chassis as an intermediate solution to replace the Leclerc, which is expected to reach the end of its service life before a next-generation tank arrives.

The technology, a hallmark of the fighting in Ukraine, arrived here shortly after Hezbollah launched an attack against Israel on March 2, following the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran that began days prior, reigniting a new large-scale war.

The tethered drones rely on a spool of fiber-optic cable that maintains a direct link between the operator and the aircraft, making them immune to jamming and to other regular electronic warfare measures. In the context of southern Lebanon, their appearance represents a major shift in the nature of the conflict.

Hezbollah released the first video footage of a fiber-optic drone attack on an Israeli tank in late March 2026.

Asked about the technology, Hezbollah referred to Ali Jazini, a military expert close to the group, who said that the drones are estimated to cost between $300 and $400 each. The craft appear to be manufactured locally using 3D printing technology, relying on available electronic components commonly used for civilian purposes.

“Hezbollah is one of the most sophisticated non-state actors in the world. But when it comes to FPV’s drones, they’re learning themselves,” Samuel Bendett, a military analyst and Russia defense expert with the U.S.-based Center for Naval Analyses, said.

Fiber-optic FPV drones have quickly become a critical weapon, and the only real requirement is having experienced operators, as improper handling can easily damage the cable.

“But if you are in your 30s or 40s, you grew up with PCs and PlayStations and know how to maneuver a joystick,” said Luxembourg-based defense commentator Hamzé Attar.

As part of the growing gamification of warfare, simulation tools now allow operators to train across a wide range of scenarios, significantly shortening the learning curve, “ultimately enabling Hezbollah to also deploy night-vision-capable FPV systems”, he said.

Fiber-optic FPV drones represent a solution born out of necessity to evade electronic warfare and enable more precise strikes, after the group’s supply line from Syria was disrupted following the fall of Assad regime. These drones do not require runways or any specialized launch infrastructure, and they also allow the pilot to retain visual contact with the target until the final seconds before impact.

Intelligence about launch sites and a pilot’s location is significantly more difficult to obtain than intelligence on other drone activity, and actors are banking on that asymmetry.

In that sense, Israeli forces seem to have been caught flat-footed. “No one is more aware of technological and drone developments around the world than Israel,” said Bendett. “So it was rather surprising to see the Israeli military not fully accounting for the potential use of these drones.”

This created a battlefield advantage for Hezbollah, alongside its deep familiarity with the terrain and geography of southern Lebanon.

Knowledge transfer of technologies and tactics typically occurs through multiple channels, including observation of other battlefields, widely available open-source footage, and training, according to analysts. Some of the expertise developed in Russia may have been transferred to Iran, and passed on to Hezbollah.

“Just as Iran has supplied technology and training for Russia’s use of Shahed drones, it is likely that Iran may have received training from Russian forces on the use of certain types of tactical UAVs”, Bendett said.

Analysts believe that any military engaged in conflict will, in one form or another, encounter technologies first seen in Ukraine, driven in part by the trade-off between efficiency and cost.

“We are seeing some of that in conflicts across the Middle East, Africa, the Sahel, and South Asia. We are also seeing the use of drones by drug cartels in Latin America,” Bendett said.

Countermeasures against the flying warheads include nets, acoustic warning sensors, spinning cables, or electromagnetic systems intended to disrupt electronics, but such measures can also risk affecting a force’s own assets operating in the same area.

According to Jazini, solutions remain limited at present, even for larger armies.

Said Attar: “They changed the battlefield and will continue to be a destabilizing factor in warfare until a proper solution is found.”

Ukraine previewed the shift weeks before Trump’s signal proved the point. Asked by Defense News earlier this month in Kyiv whether its growing web of weapons deals was changing its hand in the peace talks, Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine and the country’s former military intelligence chief, said Kyiv no longer comes to the table empty-handed.

“Ukraine is not a leader that only asks — we are partners who are ready to offer something that will be interesting,” he said. “We will take on what is actually interesting for the USA.”

For most of the war, Ukraine has relied on Western weapons transfers to hold the line. That is starting to change as the United States looks to Ukraine’s interceptor drones to fill gaps in American air defenses that have been put to the test during the Iran war.

“Licenses for the production of our missiles are being perceived positively by the American side for the first time,” Zelenskyy said on Tuesday, describing his conversation with Trump in Évian.

Two days later in Brussels, Zelenskyy’s defense minister signed a separate agreement with Germany to jointly develop anti-ballistic missile defenses, the second major weapons-production deal with a key Western ally in a week.

The war, meanwhile, is grinding toward a possible ceasefire by September, a window Zelenskyy has called the effective deadline for serious talks that have effectively been on hold since February. Ukraine is approaching it with something to trade rather than only a list of needs, according to Budanov.

Some officials still see Ukraine’s stronger negotiating hand as a matter of debate. Trump said in March the U.S. does not need Ukrainian help with drone defense.

“We know more about drones than anybody,” he told Fox News while discussing Kyiv’s offer to share its counter-drone expertise.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, for his part, said over Victory Day last month that the war was “coming to an end,” with victory “always” Russia’s.

Budanov waved off the Russian leader’s optimism as “a classic special information operation.” Putin “will always say they’re good even if they’re collapsing,” he said.

Budanov has bristled at the supplicant framing more broadly. Pushing back at the same briefing on a question about when the war’s hot phase might end, he rejected the idea that Ukraine’s fate rests on what others decide to hand it.

“Stop diminishing our role as if someone has to give us something, tell us something, donate something,” he said.

The leverage is real, in his account, because Russia has exhausted its alternatives. Moscow cannot win the war by force and knows it, he said, which leaves the negotiating table as its only way out.

Ukraine underscored that argument last week, launching its largest-ever drone offensive on Moscow — striking the Russian capital’s main oil refinery twice in a single week — in a deepening campaign against Russian energy infrastructure that Budanov described as designed in part to push the Kremlin toward the negotiating table.

“Both Russia and the United States clearly understand that without resolving our situation, they cannot openly restart their economic relationship,” Budanov said.

On the battlefield, Ukraine’s interceptor technology is improving fast. Ukrainian air defenses downed roughly 92% of the Shaheds and other attack drones Russia launched in May, up from 80% in December 2024, the Defense Ministry reported.

Counting missiles as well as drones, the General Staff put the May intercept rate at more than 88%. Early-June attacks have run at similar levels. Ukraine intercepted 92% of a 272-drone barrage on June 6 alone, according to the Ukrainian Air Force.

Interceptor drones are driving more of those kills. Their share of downed Shaheds has doubled over the past four months, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said May 20. Ukraine produced 100,000 interceptor drones in 2025, a total Fedorov said it doubled in the first four months of 2026 alone.

The deal that would formalize the exchange remains unsigned. A draft memorandum drawn up by the State Department and Ukrainian Ambassador Olha Stefanishyna was completed in May but awaits Trump’s signature amid what CBS News reported as a “lack of buy-in” from senior Pentagon and White House officials.

What shifted the ground beneath that deal is Iran. The war there has freed Washington to refocus on Ukraine, Budanov said, and it exposed the precise shortfall Kyiv is positioned to fill.

The U.S. fired between 1,060 and 1,430 Patriot interceptors during the Iran war at roughly $3.9 million apiece, according to an April CSIS analysis — more than the roughly 600 Patriots Ukraine received from all its Western allies combined across four years of war.

That is the missile Ukraine wants to build. U.S. plants turn out only 60 to 65 Patriot interceptors a month, a rate Zelenskyy told CBS News is “nothing” for today’s challenges. Licensing production to allies, he argued, is the only way to close the gap.

What Ukraine offers in return is the other half of the air-defense problem: Its interceptor drones, built to knock down the cheap Shaheds that swarm Ukrainian cities nightly, run $1,000 to $2,500 apiece, and a new system automates 95% of the intercept, Fedorov said this month.

Ukraine spent more than four years asking for weapons from partners to survive. Now, it is taking the war to Moscow and betting that the pressure forces Russia back to the negotiation table before the September window closes.

“Winning by military means is not working, and they know it perfectly well,” Budanov said of the Russians. “It means you need to negotiate.”