As a result of those significant geopolitical developments, the Swedish government boosted its 2022 military budget to 2% of gross domestic production from about 1.5%, an increase of $3 billion krona ($286.6 million). With the larger budget, Swedish Air Force Chief Maj. Gen. Carl-Johan Edstrom said his service is developing a strategy that will inform future fighter aircraft requirements.

“We need to put out a new strategy, as a nation, for our fighter systems,” Edstrom said in a July 17 speech at the Royal Air Force Club in London. The service expects to complete the work in November.

In June, the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration awarded a 250 million krona ($23.8 million) contract to Saab to study future fighter aircraft development. Headquartered in Sweden, the aerospace company manufactures the Gripen aircraft flown by the Swedish Air Force. The service plans to begin retiring its C/D-model Gripens in 2035 and Saab’s study will inform its strategy for replacing those jets.

Asked whether the country’s NATO membership will require the service to specialize in any areas, Edstrom said it’s too soon to tell. The alliance’s 30 member countries just approved Sweden and Finland’s entry this month and the move will not be formalized until the decision is ratified by each member nation’s legislative body — a process that could take a year to complete.

Edstrom said that because of Sweden’s position as one of three Western countries, alongside France and the U.S., with the proven ability to build a domestic fighter aircraft, he expects NATO “would like us to stay in that position and be a leading nation when it comes to developing the future fifth-generation systems.”

As the service makes plans for future aircraft development, it is also working on a near-term strategy to strengthen its fleet. Edstrom said he is “quite positive now” that the Swedish Air Force will establish a seventh fighter squadron. That increase will require the service to buy more Gripens to populate the squadron — likely 60 of the newer E-model aircraft and up to 60 C/D models, according to Edstrom.

The Swedish Air Force is also eyeing capability upgrades to its Gripen C/D fleet, including advanced weapons and a new radar system, he said.

BAE Systems and Leonardo have signed up to deliver what is known as the European Common Radar System Mark 2 radar to equip the RAF’s Typhoon fleet with a multi-functional array providing advanced electronic-warfare and electronic-attack capabilities, as well as more traditional radar functions.

The deal includes the industry partners delivering the first Mk2-equipped Typhoons in 2022 for test and evaluation work, as well as three complete radars.

The initial operating capability of the upgraded RAF jets is planned for soon after 2025.

An Mk2 production contract will be required to take the program to its next phase but some long-lead manufacturing of some items is already included in this latest deal.

The announcement is the latest step in a decade-long investment by the British, led by the UK arm of Leonardo, in active electronically scanned radar technology.

Leonardo already produces AESA radars for the Saab Gripen fighter, and the company’s systems are also being fitted to Typhoons for export customers Kuwait and Qatar.

The British plan to equip their 40-strong fleet of Typhoon Tranche 3 jets with the new radar but will decide at a later date whether to take up the option of fitting out the earlier Tranche 2 aircraft with the technology.

Aside from its integration work on Mk2 BAE is separately already under contract with the MoD to conduct weapons interface work.

Work on the Mk2 is a key step in Britain’s efforts to mature technology updating for Typhoons ahead of possible inclusion of the know-how in the Tempest sixth-generation combat jet project now being pursued as part of a wider air combat strategy.

Consultant Howard Wheeldon, of Wheeldon Strategic Advisory, said the decision to push forward with the Mk2 is long overdue.

“The AESA radar decision is one that has been far too long in the making in my view but one that, after years of seeming procrastination, is extremely pleasing … one of the most welcome and important development/and procurement decisions that we are likely to see before publication of the integrated defense, security and foreign policy review due later this year or early next,” he said.

The announcement of the next step in Britain’s intentions to go their own way with development of the Mk2 system comes just weeks after Typhoon national partners Germany and Spain revealed they were going ahead with the development and manufacture of the Hensoldt-led European Common Radar System Mk1 version.

Only Italy among the four Typhoon partner nations has yet to decide on a replacement for the effective but aging Captor-E mechanically scanned radar currently in operation.

Britain and Italy both operate the Lockheed Martin F-35 alongside their Typhoons.

Although Britain and its partners have undertaken substantial work together on common AESA development work through the Euroradar consortium, the Mk2 is effectively a completely different product from the Mk1 forward of the common power supply.

Andrea Thompson, managing director Europe & International for BAE Systems’ air sector, said the new capability would retain Typhoon’s operational relevance for years into the future.

“This capability will allow Typhoon to take its place in the future battlespace for decades to come, maturing key technologies for future combat air systems and ensuring interoperability. As well as securing highly skilled jobs, it will sustain the key skills needed to keep the UK at the forefront of the global combat air sector.,” she said.

In a joint statement BAE and Leonardo said the multi-functional array radar technology based on AESA was revolutionary will provide game-changing capabilities.

“It has significantly more transmit-receive elements than other radars, making Mk2 the most capable fighter AESA radar in the world, maintaining the same power and precision of traditional radars but also enabling the simultaneous operation of its wide-band electronic warfare functionality,” said the companies.

Four bombers, taking off from Royal Air Force Fairford in the United Kingdom, will pass over NATO’s European members, according to a statement by U.S. European Command in Stuttgart, Germany.

Two B-52s departing from Minot Air Force Base, North Dakota, are scheduled to fly over the United States and Canada.

“This single-day mission, titled ’Allied Sky,’ is intended to demonstrate NATO solidarity, enhance readiness and provide training opportunities aimed at enhancing interoperability for all participating aircrews from the U.S. and NATO allies,” the European Command statement read.

Aircraft from 20 alliance members are scheduled to provide aerial refueling and other support throughout the day, it added.

Officials described the mission as a variation of the U.S. military’s routine Bomber Task Force flights. Sending nuclear-capable bombers airborne amid global crises is a key tool in the Pentagon’s deterrence calculus.

Current would-be hot spots include various points along NATO’s eastern flank — such as the Baltics and the High North — where countries fear Russian forces are probing defenses. In addition, the popular uprising in Belarus against the country’s Moscow-backed, autocratic president, Alexander Lukashenko, has the potential to spill into neighboring Poland or the Baltic states, all of which are NATO members.

“U.S. security commitments to the NATO alliance remain ironclad,” Gen. Tod Wolters, the head of European Command, was quoted as saying in the statement. “Today’s bomber task force mission is another example of how the alliance sustains readiness, improves interoperability and demonstrates our ability to deliver on commitments from across the Atlantic.”

In recent years, the U.S. military has repeatedly upheld the promise of NATO’s mutual defense clause, even as President Donald Trump has strained the alliance’s political dimension during his tenure.

One F-16 squadron, the 480th Fighter Squadron, would transfer from Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany to Aviano Air Base in Italy, which already hosts two F-16 squadrons. Meanwhile, KC-135 tankers from the 100th Air Refueling Wing and CV-22 Ospreys operated by the 352nd Special Operations Wing would remain at RAF Mildenhall, England, instead of transferring to Spangdahlem.

At the time, Esper said the shift of F-16s to Italy would “[move] them closer to the Black Sea region and [make those forces] better capable of conducting dynamic force employments and rotational deployments to NATO’s southeastern flank.”

However, the strategic and geopolitical implications of the changes could be even more considerable than first thought and play into a range of areas from Germany’s fighter contest to the way the U.S. Air Force trains for war, former Defense Department and Air Force officials told Defense News.

Very little is known about when the transfer of forces will take place, how many airmen and their families will be impacted, or how much it will ultimately cost.

“Details for the implementation are still being worked. Some changes will take place soon. Some will take several years,” said Maj. Selena Rodts, a spokeswoman for U.S. Air Forces in Europe. “These are complex issues and take time, including securing Congressional funding to enable the move and to review agreements with prospective host nations to secure the necessary legal frameworks. We are committed to taking the appropriate steps to work through the changes with service members and their families and with our [host nation] counterparts.”

During a July 30 interview with Defense News, outgoing Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Dave Goldfein expressed support for the planned force structure changes, and said that keeping mobility forces at Mildenhall and transferring the F-16 from Spangdahlem to Aviano would ultimately give commanders in the region more flexibility. Goldfein retired from the Air Force Aug. 6.

“That plan was put in front of the joint chiefs,” he said. “All of us had a chance to take a look at it, comment on it, give advice to [Gen. Tod Wolters, U.S. European Command head] as he went forward. And quite frankly I think it does all of the things Secretary Esper laid out at his press conference.”

Goldfein has a personal interest in the changes. From 2004 to 2006, he served as commander of Spangdahlem’s 52nd Fighter Wing, which includes the 480th Fighter Squadron and its support functions, much of which will likely transfer to Aviano.

However, Goldfein was adamant that the move will not leave Spangdahlem vulnerable to closing.

“When you take a look at the amount of travel that we’re required to do to be a global military with global reach, you have to have both Ramstein and Spangdahlem,” he said. “It has to do with fuel capacity, it has to do with ramp capacity, it has to do with maintenance capacity, so I think the future of Spangdahlem is absolutely solid and not at risk at all.”

Once the F-16 squadron departs Spangdahlem, the base will have some excess infrastructure. That might be a good thing, said Frank Gorenc, a retired four-star general and former commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe.

In a future conflict war with a technologically advanced nation such as Russia and China, the U.S. Air Force believes its best chance at ensuring the survival of its people and aircraft is by distributing them across many operating locations — a concept it calls agile combat employment. The extra ramp space and hangars at Spangdahlem could prime it to be critical shock absorber in a major conflict, giving the U.S. Air Force additional capacity to fly in reinforcements from U.S. air ­bases to defend NATO’s Eastern flank.

“We need that infrastructure. And for deterrence and support to the alliance, particularly in NATO, the fundamental concept is that we would reinforce from North America. Well, you have to have a place to go to do reinforcement to enough of a level that would be deterrence enhancing,” Gorenc said. “Maintaining adequate force structure is a direct flap at Putin’s strategy at not allowing NATO to get consensus on any kind of reinforcement.”

In 2019, Spangdahlem was the setting for one of the Air Force’s major agile combat exercises, Operation Rapid Forge, which involved a two week deployment of F-15E Strike Eagles from the 4th Fighter Wing at Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, North Carolina.

With the 480th Fighter Squadron continuing F-16 operations at Spangdahlem, F-15E pilots and maintainers lived and worked out of tents and temporary shelters for the duration of the exercise. But after the transfer of F-16s from the base, the installation could potentially play a more permanent role as a hub for wargames and short-term deployments.

“The Spangdahlem base is a spectacular facility,” Gorenc said. “We have made a big investment into Spangdahlem. It’s a base that can accept a lot of force, and I think as an installation it’s needed more than the fighter squadron, to be honest.”

What does this mean for Germany’s fighter contest?

As the Air Force deliberates the future of the 52nd Fighter Wing, one major question is whether its 52d Munitions Maintenance Group — which sustains and stores tactical nuclear weapons on behalf of NATO — will remain at Spangdahlem or relocate with other elements of the wing.

Should that mission move out of Germany, it could portend some unseen ramifications for the NATO alliance, said Rachel Ellehuus, who was the Pentagon’s principal director of European and NATO policy from 2015 to 2018 and is currently with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Germany is embroiled in a national debate over the NATO “nuclear sharing” doctrine, which calls for the country to host B61 nuclear bombs at Büchel Air Base, located about 50 minutes from Spangdahlem. The 52nd Munitions Maintenance Group’s 702 Munitions Support Squadron is collocated at Büchel and maintains about 20 B61s which, if authorized by Germany and the United States, could be launched from a German air force Tornado jet.

In April, German defense officials acknowledged a proposal to split its multi-billion dollar fighter buy between the two competitors, with a potential purchase of 93 Eurofighter Typhoons as well as 45 Boeing-made F/A-18E/F Super Hornets and EA-18G Growlers. The Super Hornets and Growlers would be used to carry on the nuclear-sharing mission.

But removing U.S. Air Force F-16s from Germany could weaken the case for buying American fighters and hosting nuclear bombs, Ellehuus said.

“When we sell somebody U.S. aircraft or kit, we always make the case you’re not just buying just the plane but the joint training and long-term relationship. You lose that argument, in a way,” she said.

Given the political tensions between the U.S. and Germany, the pullout could potentially reinforce arguments from those who argue a European fighter, not an American one, is the correct option if the nuclear mission is no longer needed.

“It doesn’t have to spell the end of the nuclear mission for Germany, but it will add more fuel to the fire to those arguing that Germany should withdraw from the nuclear mission,” Ellehuus said. “They will see this as yet another reason the U.S. can’t be trusted and that a European solution is needed to follow on Tornado.”

On average, construction projects associated with the F-35 beddown at Lakenheath are about 25 percent over the initial $480 million budget estimated in 2015, said Lt. Col. Clinton Warner, who leads the 48th Fighter Wing’s F-35 program integration office.

“The overall trend has been projects are late and also over budget,” he told Defense News during a July interview. “A lot of the assumptions that were made back in 2015 weren’t necessarily valid. There’s been cost growth that was outside of the planning assumptions that were made back in 2015.”

The cost increase is not the only problem. As RAF Lakenheath’s first F-35 squadron stands up, neither the hangars planned to house the jets nor the headquarters building used for planning operations and maintenance will be ready, Warner said. A training simulator building will also be late.

Despite the delays, the Air Force still plans to move forward with the beddown of the jet. Warner said the service is exploring options to keep operations on track, such having the new F-35 squadron share space with existing units — which include three American F-15 squadrons — or potentially leasing additional facilities on base from the United Kingdom.

“In terms of getting here and flying the aircraft, we will still do that. [There is] really no difference in terms of the capability is going to be delivered, but it’ll just look different in how we do it,” Warner said. “It will be some strain on the units here at the base, as there’s more crowding and with waiting for those facilities to come online.”

The arrival of U.S. Air Force F-35s in Europe has been a long-awaited milestone for the service, which announced in 2015 that RAF Lakenheath would become the first international location to get the jets. Since then, F-35s temporarily deployed to the base in 2017.

“Having a fighter with the capability of the F-35s one hop closer to a part of the world that’s seemingly less stable certainly will have a deterrent effect,” said Frank Gorenc, a retired four-star general who commanded U.S. Air Forces in Europe from 2013 to 2016.

“Being able to daily train with the partners that have F-35s will have a deterrent effect,” Gorenc told Defense News. “It will cause interoperability to soar both on the maintenance side and on the operations side. I think the benefits of having that equipment — the demonstration of having a fifth-generation [fighter jet] in theater combined with F-15Es and F-16s — I think is the right signal.”

Under the current plans, F-35 pilots and maintainers will begin to arrive at RAF Lakenheath in June 2021, with the first aircraft to follow in November. The base will eventually be home to two F-35 squadrons, each with a total of 24 jets.

That beddown will follow more than five years of planning and development on the part of the Air Force, which stood up a team in 2015 to get the base ready for the incoming jets.

In 2018, the U.S. Air Force chose Kier-Volker Fitzpatrick, a joint venture of U.K.-based design and construction firms Kier Group and VolkerFitzpatrick, to build and renovate all installations associated with the F-35 presence at RAF Lakenheath. Construction began in July 2019, with seven of 14 new facilities — which will include new hangars, a building for flight simulation, a maintenance unit and storage facilities — currently either being built or already complete.

As unforeseen costs have mounted, the base’s program integration office has had to request $90 million in additional funding from Congress, as well as permission from the Pentagon to revise the scope of the projects, Warner said.

But there’s no overarching answer for why costs have ballooned.

“Each individual project had a different set of assumptions, a different set of risk profiles, and some were correct and some are not correct,” Warner said.

With only a few years between the decision to base F-35s at Lakenheath in 2015 and the original planned start of operations in 2020, the U.S. government wanted to put a construction firm under contract sooner rather than later, said Stephen King of the Defence Infrastructure Organisation, a U.K. government agency charged with overseeing the building and maintenance of military facilities.

But workforce costs grew as the project was discovered to be more complex than originally anticipated.

“When the workers are tendered, the prices that are coming back in are found to be different from those originally estimated, and it seems to be the price of doing business on a military establishment. There seems to be an ‘add-on’ to the outside market,” King said.

Because the F-35 is a stealth jet that processes large amounts of classified information, many of the installations linked with its operations must meet certain security specifications. Building those structures to both U.S. and U.K. standards while using a foreign workforce of U.K. citizens posed challenges that the U.S. Air Force did not foresee during the design process, Warner said.

“Luckily most of these problems are behind us, but they did cause delays in terms of when we were programming out in the schedule and looking at what we thought it would look like,” he said. “Some of the challenges associated with building those secure facilities were not fully understood.”

Air Force officials have said keeping the projects on track was always going to be a challenge. In 2016, Col. Robert Novotny, who was then the commander of the base’s 48th Fighter Wing, predicted construction projects could face troubles getting funding or finding a skilled workforce to build the new facilities, and that F-35s likely wouldn’t begin to arrive on base until at least 2021 or 2022.

“For me, the concern I have when I look at Lakenheath is not the F-35,” he told Defense News in July 2016. “For me, the concern I have is: Are we going to be able to build enough stuff fast enough?”

In Romania, local analysts say the country’s Ministry of National Defence aims to boost the military’s intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities by acquiring new drones, ensuring the country’s armed forces can efficiently monitor Romanian borders.

“Romania wants to increase its [ISR] capacity in the Black Sea, taking into account that the militarization of the region by Russia is intensively continuing,” George Scutaru, head of the Bucharest-based New Strategy Center think tank as well as a former member of Parliament and government adviser, told Defense News. “At the end of last April, the joint defense committees of the Romanian Parliament adopted the request of the Ministry of National Defence to start the procurement procedures for five new programs, including the acquisition of UAV systems. Within this program, an acquisition of seven tactical-operative UAV systems is to be carried out.”

Romania’s previous attempt at purchasing drones for its military came in 2018 under a procedure to buy tactical UAVs for some 250 million lei (U.S. $61 million). The bidders included American firm AAI Corporation, Israel’s Aeronautics Limited, BlueBird Aero Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries, as well as Romanian company Ymens Teamnet. However, a Romanian court canceled the tender after some bidders filed complaints.

George Visan, the coordinator of the Black Sea Security Program at the Bucharest-based think tank Romania Energy Center, told Defense News it was “known that Romania would like to acquire at least six medium-altitude, long-endurance UAVs as well as a number of smaller tactical UAVs.”

Similarly to the failed drone tender from 2018, the new competition is expected to attract bids from the American, Israeli and Romanian companies. Anticipating the forthcoming procedure, Israel’s Elbit Systems in May signed a memorandum of understanding with local state-run aircraft companies Avioane Craiova and Romaero.

“Elbit Systems can easily sell in Romania what it manufactures in Israel, but depending on the order, it is willing to integrate and transfer production here. Avioane Craiova used to produce trainers, IAR-99 aircraft and aero-structures for various manufacturers,” Visan said.

The analyst added that the ministry, in parallel to its drone procurement programs, is also funding the development of two UAVs — the medium-range Ultra-20 VTOL and the combat Ultra-20 V drone — by the state-run Research Agency for Military Hardware and Technologies, hoping to secure foreign partners and ensure transfer of technology.

“This doesn’t preclude other acquisitions,” Visan said.

Poland eyes combat, surveillance drones

Meanwhile, Poland’s Ministry of Defence is developing several acquisition programs to acquire UAVs. To date, the ministry has ordered short-range drones and mini-drones, with more programs to procure surveillance and combat drones underway.

“In the long-term, the Polish Armed Forces are planning to acquire about a dozen sets of mid-range UAVs under the Gryf program, several MALE combat-reconnaissance UAVs under the Zefir program, and vertical takeoff and landing, short-range UAVs for the Navy under the Albatros program,” a spokesperson for the Polish ministry told Defense News.

In 2018 and 2019, Polish privately owned defense company WB Group secured two orders to deliver a total of 48 mini-drones to the Territorial Defense Forces, or TDF, a military branch comprised of volunteers.

“We have supplied two types of drones to the Polish military. The first one is FlyEye, which, in addition to the TDF, is also used by the artillery forces and special forces in Poland. It can be used in a variety of missions, including reconnaissance, artillery guidance, search and rescue, but also to extend the range of battle management systems. This drone can guide missiles, becoming the heart of an anti-tank system. We have developed FlyEye for more than 10 years, and new variants continue to be designed,” company spokesman Remigiusz Wilk told Defense News. “The second one is Warmate, which combines reconnaissance capabilities and combat capacities as loitering munition, owing to which it’s a highly precise weapon system.”

WB Group is also exporting its drones, with Warmate’s deliveries to four allies carried out through the NATO Support and Procurement Agency. Most recently, the manufacturer established a subsidiary in Ukraine where the country’s military has operated its UAVs.

“Our drones are combat-proven, and to date not a single one has been lost over Ukrainian skies carrying out hundreds of challenging missions,” Wilk said.

Other countries in the region that plan to acquire drones include the Czech Republic. Last November, Czech President Milos Zeman spurred controversy when he called on the government to buy Israeli UAVs for the armed forces.

Combat drones are expected to be acquired under the country’s military modernization program by 2027, in an effort worth 100 billion koruny (U.S. $4.53 billion).

Russian air defense systems have taken down drones while fighters, civilians and air bases have been bombed by jets as C-130s and Turkish A400M aircraft keep up deliveries of new weaponry and fighters into the country.

In short, Libya has been transformed this year into something of an air warfare laboratory, begging the question: What exactly is going on, who is winning and what has this conflict taught generals about modern air combat?

“On one level, Libya yet again simply underscores the value of air power — you do not want to get in a fight without it,” said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

The conflict in lawless Libya began to escalate in April 2019 as local strongman Gen. Khalifa Haftar launched his campaign to take the capital Tripoli. Backed by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Russia and France, he felt confident going up against the U.N.-recognized government in Tripoli backed by Turkey, Italy and Qatar.

In April last year, Chinese Wing Loong II drones operated by the UAE bombed civilian targets in the city, reflecting the recent and rapid procurement of Chinese drones around the Middle East.

“The Chinese have been adept at selling drones in the Middle East, including to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Iraq. With the U.S. previously constrained in selling systems, the Chinese saw a gap in the market,” Barrie said.

Turkey has proved the exception. Around May 2019, it introduced its own TB2 drone into the fray, attacking Haftar’s forces, knocking out Russian Pantsir air defense systems supporting him and helping end his ambitions to take Tripoli.

“Turkey has majored in UAV design and manufacture and likely used Libya in part as a test-and-adjust battle lab, and its systems are now ‘combat proven’. Its industry, like Roketsan, has also developed small, precision-guided munitions for UAVs,” Barrie said.

A second analyst said Turkey’s use of its TB2 in Libya had been a game changer. “Turkey decided it was OK to lose them from time to time, that they were semi-disposable, and that novel approach caught their enemy off guard,” said Jalel Harchaoui of the Clingendael Institute in Holland.

The reason? Cost. “They used to cost the Turks $1-1.5 million apiece to build, but thanks to economies of scale as production volumes rose, the cost has dropped to below $500,000, excluding the control station,” Harchaoui explained.

He added that software and other technical changes boosted the TB2′s efficiency and reconnaissance capabilities, which allowed them to find the right altitude to avoid the Russian Pantsir systems.

“The performance of the Wing Loong IIs in the hands of the UAE has meanwhile been largely static. They didn’t evolve, so they have been much less impressive,” he said.

Barrie said Libya is also an example of the normalization of drone use in modern warfare.

“UAVs are a capability now pursued by state and nonstate actors alike. Obviously states can afford more capable, larger systems, while nonstate actors may have to make do with home-built systems akin to being made with Radio Shack-like components, or acquiring systems from state sponsors,” he said. “In Libya, UAVs have suited this kind of ugly, attritional warfare against small, lightly armed units.”

Last July, a missile strike on a migrant center near Tripoli, which killed 53 people, was likely the work of the UAE, the BBC reported, quoting a confidential U.N. investigation.

Analyst Harchaoui alleged that Emirati Mirage 2000-9 aircraft flying out of an Egyptian base had been supporting Haftar periodically since June 2019.

“Misrata airbase, which has hosted Turkish TB2 drones, was bombed multiple times last year by Emirati drones and jets until the Turks brought in Korkut and MIM-23 Hawk air defense systems. The raids over Misrata stopped in 2020 — probably because the UAE did not want to see a captured pilot show up tortured on Facebook,” he said.

On July 4, fighter jets attacked Al-Watiya air base, just after Turkey had brought in its MIM-23 Hawk air defense missiles there.

“Sonic booms heard over Sebha, in southwest Libya, suggest the aircraft took off from Egypt, then flew to Libya via the Sahara to avoid being spotted by Turkish frigates off the Libyan coast,” Harchaoui said. “Could it have been Egyptian Rafales? They are good but don’t have enough experience for an ultra-precise mission like this. French pilots flying Egyptian Rafales is unlikely in case one was captured, leaving the UAE Mirages as most likely.”

Added Barrie: “Of all the Gulf states, the UAE is the most capable of this kind of mission — they have the combat experience and could do this.”

Meanwhile, the U.S. military command in Africa reported in late May that satellite imagery showed Russian aircraft arriving in Libya to support Haftar.

“At least 14 MiG-29s and several Su-24s were flown from Russia to Syria, where their Russian markings were painted over to camouflage their Russian origin,” U.S. Africa Command said.

The aircraft are reportedly being used to support the Wagner Group, a mercenary operation on the ground in Libya that is said to have Russia’s backing, though Moscow denies a link to the organization.

The American command warned the aircraft might be flown by “inexperienced” mercenaries who “will not adhere to international law.”

According to Harchaoui, eye witnesses in Libya reported a number of misses notched up during bombing raids by the aircraft. “That suggests they were not Russian Air Force pilots,” he said.

This summer, the conflict has slowed, as Haftar’s forces retreated from Tripoli and took up position to fight for the coastal city of Sirte, which is key to controlling Libya’s oil trade. With Al-Watiya air base now repaired and back in business after the July air raid, Turkey may be considering basing its F-16s there, finally giving it a beach head for fighters in Libya.

Bringing in American-built aircraft could, however, rely on the say-so of the U.S.

“Is the U.S. so concerned about Russia’s intervention in Libya it would support the deployment of Turkish F-16s to stop it?” Harchaoui wondered. “Or will it come down on the side of Egypt, which is a U.S. ally? The ball is in its court.”

The Air Force is now undergoing the most profound modernization since its formation in Great Britain during the Second World War. We have now set our eyes on the goal of full operating capability for the F-35s in 2025 with the Joint Strike Missile as the key weapon. The purpose is to deliver a modern war-fighting capability able to deter aggression, and to provide continued contribution to NATO collective defense.

Over the past decade, Russia has strengthened its military capabilities in the High North. Building a so-called active defense, which emphasizes high readiness, mobility, strong coordination and the ability to launch massive firepower, Russian military activity is increasing. Because of Russia’s prioritization of the Arctic, we are witnessing large-scale infrastructure reestablishment, the addition of new military equipment and a higher number of exercises in the region. The key task of the Russian capabilities on the Kola Peninsula is global deterrence, making horizontal escalation a lasting concern for Norway.

Looking north is second nature to Norway, as we were the only NATO member state with a border to the Soviet Union during the Cold War. In terms of air power, I would like to highlight a few significant Norwegian peacetime contributions to the alliance.

All military decision-making begins with understanding the operational environment to build situational awareness. The Royal Norwegian Air Force’s chain of air surveillance radars is permanently monitoring the national and adjacent airspace. They feed into NATO’s integrated air command-and-control system with an air picture of the north. The government’s long-term defense plan released this spring gives priority to the renewal of the air surveillance radars.

Permanent 24/7 NATO air policing is one of the most crucial missions of the Royal Norwegian Air Force in the High North. Norway is accustomed to the frequent presence of Russian bombers and other military aircraft in international airspace close to our borders flying into the North Atlantic. Norwegian F-16s have provided NATO quick-reaction alert from Bodø Air Base situated north of the Polar Circle for more than half a century. The quick-reaction alert is operated under NATO command according to established allied procedures. In March this year, F-35s performed their first identification of Russian bombers, a mission the new aircraft will take over from 2022.

The Royal Norwegian Air Force is also monitoring the waters in the north, with our P-3s soon to be replaced with five new P-8 maritime patrol aircraft. We have performed this task in cooperation with close allies since the Russian Northern Fleet, and particularly their submarines, started their Cold War patrols into the Atlantic. Our MPA provides situational awareness and a stable presence. The Northern Fleet has modernized old submarine classes and introduced new ones, including the silent Yasen-class multirole submarines (the Severodvinsk) armed with cruise missiles, and the strategic Borei class with intercontinental ballistic missiles. Monitoring the north with MPA is also a substantial contribution to the alliance.

The Norwegian short, medium and long-term goal for the High North continues to be stability and predictability. As a small state bordering Russia, Norway depends on NATO and close allies for its defense and joint deterrence. Credible military presence is an important part of the balance. Therefore, the Norwegian government is working to increase our military presence in the north.

The credibility of collective defense rests on allied cohesion and interoperability. We therefore value allied military presence and participation in exercises and training in demanding Arctic conditions. Hosting the NATO exercise Trident Juncture in 2018 in Norway was a successful manifestation of allied cohesion focusing on collective defense. The exercise comprised large-scale training goals such as interoperability, reinforcement and mobility — crucial for allied operations on both the northern flank and elsewhere.

The most recent confirmation of the importance of the Arctic is the United States’ release of the Department of the Air Force Arctic Strategy. The strategy confirms a continued U.S. ambition to contribute to a secure and stable Arctic region. Norway welcomes and support our American allies’ enduring effort to address common challenges in this strategically important area in the years ahead.

The modernization of the Royal Norwegian Air Force enables continued strategic presence in the north. NATO’s quick-reaction alert with Norwegian F-35s will operate from Evenes Air Base from 2022. Our F-35s will continue the strategically important task of permanent air policing on the northern flank — constituting NATO fifth-generation presence in the Arctic airspace.

Tone Skogen is the state secretary of the Norwegian Defence Ministry.

The real Farnborough air show may have fallen victim to COVID-19, but with the Tempest team scheduled to deliver an outline business case for the next stage of the program to the government later this year the event provided a platform stress the importance of the project to jobs, the technology base and sustainment of operational sovereignty here.

Britain launched the effort to look at developing the technologies required to build a sixth-generation combat jet two years ago under the name of Team Tempest, with BAE Systems, Leonardo UK, MBDA UK and Rolls-Royce partnering with the Ministry of Defence in the effort.

Since then Sweden and Italy have also been recruited to study potential involvement in future combat air systems development and the Tempest program itself.

Neither nation has committed itself yet, though, and a drive also continues to find other potential partners.

Opening the virtual show, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace flagged the country’s interest in securing the signatures of other nations in development of a future combat aircraft.

“The U.K. is keen to see more international partners join us. … There is room for a broad range of other partnerships,” Wallace said.

Leonardo CEO Alessandro Profumo said in a show webcast a number of countries had shown an interest in the program.

“Time remains for other partners to join Tempest. You have seen other nations express an interest and we are extremely positive for the future,” Profumo said.

Japan, India and Saudi Arabia are among countries that have previously been mentioned as potential partners.

It is also too soon to rule out the possibility of a realignment of some description with the rival Franco-German-Spanish future combat air program, said Doug Barrie, the senior air analyst at the International Institute of Strategic Studies think tank in London.

“I think there’s still a considerable period to go where alignments could change – with the possibility members could join or leave,” he said.

Howard Wheeldon, of consultants Wheeldon Strategic Advisory, sees no chance of the two programs merging but reckons national line-ups could change.

“I would rule out any thought of a merger between the two European projects, although I would never rule out the possibility of Germany jumping ship,” he said.

With or without additional partners, always assuming Swedish and Italian Governments sign up for some sort of deal, Wheeldon reckons the British will stick with Tempest.

“While the ideal situation would be an increase in the number of Team Tempest partner nations, such is the importance now being placed on future combat air systems and Team Tempest by the government I take the view that even if no other partners arrive the U.K. will not walk away from Tempest,” he said.

For the moment, though, attention is focused on Team Tempest and the progress being made with its current would-be partners to study a potential tie-up around development of future combat air systems for the British and Italian operated Typhoon and Saab Gripen E combat jets and, ultimately, the building of the sixth-generation Tempest to be ready sometime between 2035 and 2040.

The British have over 60 combat air technology demonstrations underway co-funded by the government and industry.

Talks between the industrial partners of Britain, Italy and Sweden,which had previously been on a bilateral basis, have now been ratcheted up to trilateral discussions, strengthening potential research and development collaborations.

“We’ve made good progress with Saab and Leonardo in identifying shared goals and expertise and through this new framework, we can build on this collaboration to unlock the huge potential across our three nations,” said BAE CEO Charles Woodburn.

The three national industries comprise BAE, Leonardo UK, Rolls Royce and MBDA UK from Britain; Leonardo, Elettronica, Avio Aero and MBDA Italia from Italy; and Sweden’s Saab and GKN Aerospace Sweden.

Additionally, Saab also used the virtual show to announce it was investing £50 million in the creation of a future combat air system hub and other activities in the U.K.

The location and timing of the investment have not yet been declared by Saab but there is talk here that the center could be close to BAE’s combat jet operations in northwest England.

Saab CEO Micael Johansson said the move signaled the company’s commitment to combat air development and the growth of its interests in the U.K.

Tempest itself didn’t rate a mention in the Saab statement, with the company only referring to future combat air system development work.

“Saab took the decision to create a new future combat air system centre so that we can further develop the close working relationship with the other future combat air system industrial partners and the U.K. MoD. This emphasizes the importance of both future combat air systems and the U.K. to Saab’s future,” said Johansson.

The Tempest industrial effort has also been further broadened with the signing up of a clutch of systems suppliers.

Bombardier in Northern Ireland, GKN, Martin Baker and Qinetiq, alongside the U.K. arms of Collins Aerospace, GE Aviation and Thales have signed up to collaborate on the demonstration program.

So far only Collins Aerospace Systems has declared its hand on the nature of the work they will be undertaking. The company said it had been awarded a contract by BAE to provide advanced actuation capabilities, including for use on Tempest.

Separately, GKN Aerospace in Sweden revealed July 22 it is participating in a future fighter engine feasibility study along with Rolls-Royce and Avio Aero of Italy.

Richard Aboulafia, vice president at the Teal Group, said progress signing up the systems suppliers was a significant move.

“My big take away from virtual Farnborough is that Tempest increasingly looks like a real program, with a very heavy level of involvement from subcontractors, who of course need to start developing systems,” said Aboulafia.

Despite the fact COVID-19 has pretty much sucked the life out of the U.K.’s finances for now, the feeling among analysts is that Tempest will survive a potentially perfect storm of severe defense budget restrictions and an integrated defense, security and foreign policy review ordered by Prime Minister Boris Johnson and due to report next year.

In an opinion piece for the Sunday Telegraph July 26 Defense Secretary Wallace said the Government would be “pivoting away” from traditional equipment capabilities with the armed forces reshaped to operate “much more in the newest domains of space, cyber and sub-sea.”

But he also made the point that a sharper technological edge and a relentless focus on innovation was required to outmaneuver adversaries. The policy would unlock opportunities in jobs, skills and in exports, he said.

Wheeldon said that sort of language was right out of the Tempest playbook.

“The government has made it abundantly clear that it views development of new technologies as being the absolute priority for the U.K. Tempest is not only a test case of that commitment but is also its flagship. Bottom line is my belief that the government is even more behind the program than it was two years ago.,” said Wheeldon.

“My sense is that despite the expectation of capability, manning and base cuts emerging from the integrated review process the government will continue to back major development projects such as Team Tempest,” he said.

IISS’s Barrie reckons that without the need yet for massive spending on the program Tempest and future combat air developments could ride out the COVID-19 storm, and maybe even benefit.

“So far the program looks secure-ish, even with the pending outcome of the Integrated Review, given that the near-term levels of investment are manageable. There is also the argument that with the commercial aerospace sector being battered by the pandemic, any support the government could provide to the wider sector would be welcome – the future combat air system provides such a vehicle,” he said.

Aboulafia reckons that while there may be a risk of delay it’s unlikely the economic impact of COVID-19 on Tempest will be significant.

“These programs are certainly at risk of being delayed, but the bulk of the heavy spending bill is due well after the pandemic recovery period, so it’s unlikely that this crisis will force any tough decisions. And the whole point of Tempest of course is to avoid getting involved with a program led by France,” he said.

Paul Everitt, the CEO of the ADS industry lobby organization, said the future combat air effort fitted the government’s plans to boost the manufacturing economy to a tee.

“The Tempest program is the government’s prosperity agenda in action,” said Everitt.

One of the key issues yet to be announced by the British is whether they see Tempest as piloted or optionally piloted.

Wallace seemed to signal his preference for an optionally piloted machine when he told virtual-Farnborough viewers that while ninety percent of combat jets are crewed today, he expects a “major reversal of these proportions by 2040.”

In a report on Britain’s combat air choices released late July, Royal United Services Institute analyst Justin Bronk said the decision was of huge importance for Tempest.

“The decision of whether or not to develop a piloted or optionally piloted solution as part of Tempest will have critical implications for the nature, cost implications and minimum viable scale of the program,” he said.

“While it remains an operating assumption for many, the outcome of the Team Tempest next-generation combat air development program is not necessarily going to involve a new (optionally) piloted fast jet fleet to directly replace Typhoon. If that ambition is the choice made, it will have major budget implications for an already stretched combat air equipment program between 2024 and 2040,” said the analyst.

Bronk says in the report that a decision to go for a piloted Tempest only could have ramifications elsewhere in Britain’s combat jet force.

“Barring a massive increase in overall defense spending, significant F-35 purchases beyond 2024 remain financially incompatible with a full-scale piloted vehicle-centric Tempest program to replace Typhoon, even if some additional combat air funding can be found,” Bronk warned.

The British have pledged to buy 48 F-34Bs by 2024 out of a total commitment for 138 aircraft.