{"id":14781,"date":"2018-09-18T23:04:02","date_gmt":"2018-09-18T23:04:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2018\/09\/18\/does-the-air-force-really-need-74-more-squadrons-it-depends-on-who-you-ask\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T20:13:48","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T20:13:48","slug":"does-the-air-force-really-need-74-more-squadrons-it-depends-on-who-you-ask","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/digital-show-dailies\/2018\/09\/18\/does-the-air-force-really-need-74-more-squadrons-it-depends-on-who-you-ask\/","title":{"rendered":"Does the Air Force really need 74 more squadrons? It depends on who you ask"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.airforcetimes.com\/news\/your-air-force\/2018\/09\/17\/air-force-calls-for-74-more-squadrons-to-prepare-for-possibility-of-war-against-major-power\/\" target=_blank>Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson\u2019s<\/a> call for growing the service from its current size of 312 operational squadrons to 386 by 2030 in preparation for a possible conflict with Russia and China faced some scrutiny at a forum for Air Force leadership Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The nearly 25 percent increase in squadrons is the lynchpin in the service\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.airforcetimes.com\/news\/your-air-force\/2018\/09\/10\/wilson-to-lay-out-air-force-we-need-at-afa\/\">\u201cAir Force We Need\u201d<\/a> proposal, but policy experts appeared a bit more conservative on how much of that increase is actually necessary and feasible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI think it\u2019s more compelling as a vision than a realistic plan,\u201d Michael O\u2019Hanlon, a senior fellow on defense policy at the Brookings Institution, said Tuesday. \u201cWhether you\u2019re for or against it, a 25 percent increase at a time when we\u2019re not actually at war, in a major sense, with a great power is dramatic. It may be the best way to prevent such a war, and reinforce deterrence, but it is dramatic.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The proposal is intended to provide the assets the Air Force needs to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.airforcetimes.com\/news\/your-air-force\/2018\/09\/18\/three-star-expect-future-mobilizations-and-transits-to-be-contested\/\" target=\"_blank\">fight peer adversaries<\/a>, defend the homeland, deter nuclear war, counter <a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/news\/your-military\/2018\/04\/18\/us-forces-in-korea-arent-packing-up-just-yet-heres-why\/\" target=\"_blank\">rogue nation-states <\/a>and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/flashpoints\/2018\/07\/09\/heres-what-a-massive-spike-in-airdrops-says-about-the-war-in-afghanistan\/\" target=\"_blank\">fight violent extremists<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIf you\u2019re wondering how we pay for it, that\u2019s a discussion of its own, but I think this is a great and bold move on [Wilson\u2019s] part, and I stand behind it as best we can,&#8221; said John Venable, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation and retired Air Force fighter pilot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"628\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/3H4A1832.jpg.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4419\" srcset=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/3H4A1832.jpg.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/3H4A1832.jpg.jpg?resize=300,157 300w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/3H4A1832.jpg.jpg?resize=768,402 768w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/3H4A1832.jpg.jpg?resize=1024,536 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson and Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein with Vice President. Mike Pence, who made a surprise visit during the Air Force Association&#8217;s Air, Space &#038; Cyber conference held at the Gaylord National Resort &#038; Conference Center in Oxon Hill, MD.  (Alan Lessig\/Staff)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wilson delivered the proposal during her keynote address at the Air Force Association\u2019s Air, Space and Cyber Conference outside Washington, D.C., this week. Her speech referenced massive Russian military exercises, China\u2019s development of its first aircraft carrier, as well the militarization of islands in the South China Sea to extend the reach of China\u2019s long-range bombers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Regardless, O\u2019Hanlon said, Wilson\u2019s proposal should not be taken literally, but instead as more of an aspiration that adds to the debate of how to approach a new era of great power competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt\u2019s probably a place we\u2019re not going to get, and probably a place we don\u2019t quite need to get, even though I recognize its value as an intellectual contribution by the Air Force,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd in that sense, it\u2019s probably in the same realm as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.navytimes.com\/news\/your-navy\/2017\/08\/10\/new-secnav-speaks-about-a-355-ship-navy-and-transgender-service\/\" target=_blank>355-ship Navy aspiration<\/a> &#8230; which I don\u2019t think will happen either.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/airforcetimes\/news\/your-air-force\/2018\/09\/18\/bombers-fighters-and-tankers-unite-will-the-air-force-rebuild-composite-wings-to-fight-near-peer-foes\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"158\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screen-Shot-2018-09-17-at-14.53.09.png.png?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Bombers, fighters and tankers unite: Will the Air Force rebuild composite wings to fight near-peer foes?<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">The Air Force is looking at new ways to prepare its airmen to deploy and fight. One possibility could be the return of composite wings, or some similar method of bringing fighters, bombers , tankers and other aircraft together to challenge near-peer rivals.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">O\u2019Hanlon cited the large national budget deficit as the biggest reason for pause. Dealing with that will require sacrifices from agencies across the U.S. government, including the Defense Department.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, base closures, scaling down current wars abroad and streamlining logistics are ways the U.S. military can carve out more room in its own budget for its modernization goals, according to O\u2019Hanlon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cAny increase in the size of the Air Force is going to have to come out of some other defense program, in all likelihood,\u201d O\u2019Hanlon said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Venable concurred, but was more optimistic about the increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThere is money you can manage in the budget,\u201d Venable said, noting that between fiscal years 2017 and 2019, the research and development line in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.saffm.hq.af.mil\/Portals\/84\/documents\/FY19\/FY19_BOB_FINAL_v3.pdf?ver=2018-02-13-150300-757\" target=_blank>Air Force\u2019s budget <\/a>increased by roughly $10 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1197\" height=\"631\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Air-China_web.jpg.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-28086\" srcset=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Air-China_web.jpg.jpg 1197w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Air-China_web.jpg.jpg?resize=300,158 300w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Air-China_web.jpg.jpg?resize=768,405 768w, https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Air-China_web.jpg.jpg?resize=1024,540 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1197px) 100vw, 1197px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A Chinese People&#8217;s Liberation Army Air Force Su-30 fighter, right, flies with a H-6K bomber during a September 2016 drill near the East China Sea. While the U.S. military remains the dominant force in Asia, China is catching up quickly and is increasingly able to project power far from its shores. (Shao Jing\/Xinhua via AP, File)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThat money can be applied to men and equipment quite readily,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Venable projected that all the assets needed to grow the Air Force to 386 squadrons by 2030 would cost a little more than $80 billion on top of the current budget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIf you take that $10 billion &#8230; each year for the next 10 years, the budget could stay relatively stable,\u201d Venable said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The intelligence and planning that led Wilson to her 386-squadron proposal is classified, but O\u2019Hanlon suggested it was likely meant to address a few China-themed scenarios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cMy suspicion is some of what we\u2019re trying to do is, for example, break a Chinese blockade of Taiwan robustly and directly,&#8221; he said. \u201cOr, if the Chinese were to grab some Senkaku islands from Japan, to go in and do a liberation with very few casualties.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThese are worthy aspirations, but they may not be the best battle plans for all scenarios,&#8221; O\u2019Hanlon said. &#8220;I think there are certain kinds of scenarios where we actually need to be more creative rather than fall back on a traditional operating conditions plan, which might be what is justifying the 386 number.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">O\u2019Hanlon conceded that a great power war offers many more uncertainties than current conflicts against insurgencies in the Middle East. As a war unfolds, stateside bases could be hit, squadrons en-route to an objective could be intercepted, and cyber systems could be compromised.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThere are huge uncertainties, and most of these argue in favor of a larger Air Force,\u201d he added. \u201cI\u2019m not trying to make a purely dovish argument, I\u2019m simply trying to remind us of what we don\u2019t know based on the calculations that have been done, that had to make a lot of assumptions about scenarios and losses.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The nearly 25 percent increase in squadrons would be the lynchpin in the service\u2019s \u201cAir Force We Need\u201d proposal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":28079,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":29,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[75,7,29,162,36],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3374],"class_list":["post-14781","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-air-force-association","category-air","category-digital-show-dailies","category-digital-show-daily","category-newsletters"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"URSO2TDFHBHHVFCOEWHVHKY4UI","arc_canonical_url":"\/news\/your-air-force\/2018\/09\/18\/does-the-air-force-really-need-74-more-squadrons-it-depends-on-who-you-ask\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Does the Air Force really need 74 more squadrons? 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