{"id":17335,"date":"2021-12-21T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-12-21T13:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2021\/12\/21\/inflation-and-budget-gridlock-take-a-toll-on-the-pentagon\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T21:37:46","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T21:37:46","slug":"inflation-and-budget-gridlock-take-a-toll-on-the-pentagon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/congress\/2021\/12\/21\/inflation-and-budget-gridlock-take-a-toll-on-the-pentagon\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation and budget gridlock take a toll on the Pentagon"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WASHINGTON \u2015 Inflation<\/a> is now a national security issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The prospect of increased weapons costs and rising wages are already causing significant problems for Pentagon planners as they craft President Joe Biden\u2019s upcoming budget proposal for fiscal 2023, defense experts say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Complicating matters, the White House Office of Management and Budget, or OMB, has not given the Pentagon a top line for fiscal 2023, with the budget submission deadline just weeks away. Experts say that\u2019s likely because Congress has yet to reach a longer-term spending deal for 2022 and passed a continuing resolution into mid-February instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey had a budget, but I think they\u2019re finding that because of the pay raise, and because of inflation being a lot higher than expected, they\u2019re going to need more money,\u201d said Todd Harrison<\/a>, director of defense budget analysis at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. \u201cTo do that, you need a pass-back from OMB. That\u2019s where they are right now, and I think that\u2019s the option they\u2019re most likely to pursue.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal agencies typically submit budget requests to OMB in early September, and OMB decides on that request in November \u2015 the \u201cpass-back\u201d phase. Though the process is often delayed, the target is for the president\u2019s budget to be decided in December, drafted in January and submitted in early February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Asked for comment, the Pentagon deferred to OMB, which declined to participate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The administration\u2019s initial plans to increase defense matched a projected 2% rise in inflation, but the Labor Department says inflation surged 6.8% in November \u2014 a 39-year high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Related cost increases for fuel and other supplies are already forcing the Pentagon to triage its budget, according to Mackenzie Eaglen<\/a>, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. She pointed to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin\u2019s announcement last month of a program to help struggling military families deal with inflation-related price hikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTake that and multiply it across 100 other issues and priorities across the [Defense] Department, not just in terms of compensation,\u201d Eaglen said. \u201cWhat it means is a scramble to readjust.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The annual target date for the president to release a budget proposal is February, after which House and Senate lawmakers spend much of the rest of the year debating as part of their spending deliberations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of delays in crafting an FY23 budget, Pentagon officials are discussing mid- to late March for a possible rollout, according to Eaglen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The military\u2019s basic pay formula is due to rise by 4.6%, potentially a 20-year high, because of increased inflation and wages across the country. That formula, known as the Employment Cost Index, tracks private sector wages and often serves as the basis for pay boosts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If that becomes the pay increase for 2023, it will be the highest boost for troops since 2003. But lawmakers could go even higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In October, House Armed Services Committee ranking member Mike Rogers<\/a>, R-Ala., said the issue of military pay will be a top priority in next year\u2019s budget debate, to include \u201csignificantly increasing compensation and benefits packages, particularly for enlisted personnel.\u201d Committee Chairman Adam Smith<\/a>, D-Wash., later echoed those remarks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pay raises can be costly. This year\u2019s 2.7% pay raise adds about $1.4 billion in personnel costs to the military budget, and a 4.6% boost next year would be about $2.5 billion more; some Pentagon planners say that money cuts into training and modernization efforts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How it affects modernization<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

The prospect of inflation-related cost increases are stoking fears in the defense sector the Pentagon will make up the difference by delaying some big-ticket modernization programs or by cutting quantities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey\u2019re not making the hard choices yet, they\u2019re working on some of it,\u201d National Defense Industrial Association President Herbert \u201cHawk\u201d Carlisle<\/a> said of the budgeting delay at the Pentagon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cFrom our initial view of it, it appears that some of the modernization required to counter China will be slipped to the right and in some cases be in jeopardy if the budget that appears to be coming does come out,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts predict rising inflation will drive up programmatic costs, especially in cases where the Pentagon signed a cost-sharing contract. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Ronald Epstein said he could see defense contractors seeking to renegotiate with the government as their costs rise due to higher prices for parts, materials and labor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDoD is a fair customer. I think they understand that [contractor costs are rising], and their budgets are going to reflect some concessions for inflation,\u201d Epstein said during a recent Defense One event<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some experts predict the Biden administration will now ask for more money instead of cutting back in other areas, partly because Congress passed the FY22 defense policy bill with $25 billion more in defense spending<\/a> than the president requested<\/a>. Defense experts also see pressure to increase defense spending because 2023 is a midterm election year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt looks like from the bills that are being proposed, it seems like deficit hawks are nowhere to be found,\u201d Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag said during the Defense One event. \u201cIt seems like the probability, in terms of just plussing up the budget, is more likely than cutting equipment volumes.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predictions of flat military spending<\/a> early in Biden\u2019s first year in office were upended by Congress\u2019 willingness, on a bipartisan basis, to increase the Pentagon\u2019s budget to keep pace with China\u2019s growing military capabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Congress has stalled on a federal spending deal, it did pass the FY22 National Defense Authorization Act. But appropriations bills, which dictate spending levels, haven\u2019t moved, and without a budget deal for 2022, the Defense Department is operating under a stop-gap continuing resolution, which prevents new-start programs and multiyear activities, with some limited exceptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Pentagon, some defense-friendly lawmakers and the defense industry fear Congress will deadlock and adopt a yearlong CR<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rogers, ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, voiced frustration with the delays and blamed them on Democratic leaders in both chambers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI mean, these CRs are killing us,\u201d he told Defense News. \u201cIf they do another CR in February to the end of the year, it\u2019s going to basically cost [the Pentagon] $40 billion. It\u2019s going to negate everything we just did in this authorization, plus more. And it\u2019s just literally un-American if we aren\u2019t doing a better job to provide for our military than that.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Senate Appropriations Chairman Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., has also urged progress on appropriations during a recent floor speech, offering a reminder that the NDAA does not contain \u201cone penny.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe NDAA is a promissory note. The appropriations bill is the cash,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Highlighting the partisan divide, the Senate Appropriations Committee\u2019s ranking member, Sen. Richard Shelby<\/a>, R-Ala., called for more defense funding than the NDAA authorized.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI think that\u2019s a good start, but that\u2019s not what they need. They need more, and the military will tell you that,\u201d Shelby said. \u201cIt\u2019s better than what it was, but it\u2019s not as good as it should be.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By and large, appropriators are primarily focused on FY22 spending, but the subject of next fiscal year and inflation\u2019s impact on it are creeping into their thought process. For the FY23 Pentagon budget, Shelby said inflation must be factored in \u2015 something he said Congress will likely have to do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI think they\u2019re not going to add that,\u201d Shelby said of the Biden administration. \u201cThey have a philosophical bent. A lot of them like butter rather than guns.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At least one key Democrat said the administration should use the NDAA\u2019s higher top line as a starting point for its FY23 request.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat\u2019s usually how we operate. We start with the previous year\u2019s budget and determine how much more we need,\u201d said Rhode Island Democratic Sen. Jack Reed<\/a>, who chairs the Senate Armed Services Committee and serves on the Appropriations Committee. \u201cThe real issue is the budget should be based upon what we need to meet the threats.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Leo Shane III contributed to this report.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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