{"id":17362,"date":"2015-03-07T14:43:07","date_gmt":"2015-03-07T14:43:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2015\/03\/07\/israel-simulation-highlights-new-thinking\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T21:36:58","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T21:36:58","slug":"israel-simulation-highlights-new-thinking","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/training-sim\/2015\/03\/07\/israel-simulation-highlights-new-thinking\/","title":{"rendered":"Israel Simulation Highlights New Thinking"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">TEL AVIV \u2014 World War III almost broke out at Tel Aviv University last week, though cooler heads prevailed in the end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span class=\"rte rte-comment\">Two <\/span>Incendiary statements by Iran and the Islamic State <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">ISIS <\/span>brought the sides to the brink of war during a simulation, held at the university, which <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">on Monday, which <\/span>dealt with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu&#8217;s nightmare scenario:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Iran, backed into a corner by the Islamic State, <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">ISIS <\/span>and armed and ready to use a nuclear bomb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The simulation game was formulated by the Lab for Policy and Security Simulations (SIMLAB) in conjunction with the Yuval Ne&#8217;eman Workshop and the university&#8217;s Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African studies. The game opened with provocative remarks from Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who proclaimed, &#8220;If ISIS will continue its advances against holy Shi&#8217;ite cities, Iran will not hesitate to use every force in its power against ISIS and the areas under its control.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The statement prompted the Islamic State<span class=\"rte rte-comment\">ISIS<\/span> to call for its supporters in Iraq to attack the &#8220;infidels&#8221; and for its sympathizers in Jordan and Syria to &#8220;take to the streets.&#8221; The flurry of activity, which included the killing of four Jordanian pilots, prompted world powers to scramble for a solution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The six-hour simulation, in which <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">had <\/span>security experts and academics represented 15 different actors, concluded that <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">as far as <\/span>Israel <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">is concerned, it <\/span>must be flexible in forming coalitions with its Arab neighbors if it wants to combat the Iranian nuclear threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;In conjunction with Israel&#8217;s military capabilities, Israel will need to be flexible and foster new and unprecedented regional alliances,&#8221; said SIMLAB head Haim Assa. <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">Lab for Policy and Security Simulations (<\/span><span class=\"rte rte-comment\">SIMLAB<span class=\"rte rte-comment\">)<\/span> head. <\/span><span class=\"rte rte-comment\">Dr. Haim Assa, said.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;Israel will have to break free of its prejudices regarding threats from both old and new enemies in the region.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Netanyahu has <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">certainly <\/span>alluded to this <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">elusive <\/span>goal in the past. At the UN last year, he said, &#8220;With a fresh approach from our neighbors, we can advance peace despite the difficulties \u2026 the old template for peace must be updated. It must take into account new realities and new roles and responsibilities for our Arab neighbors.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Achieving such a challenging goal will require a more nuanced approach, said Uzi Rabi, director of the Moshe Dayan Center.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;We need to know how to use the scalpel and not the hammer,&#8221; Rabi said during the simulation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When dealing with &#8220;failed states, primordial identities, cyberwar and nuclear weapons,&#8221; Israel must be &#8220;humble&#8221; in its approach and look for a common denominator with its Arab neighbors, not a broad-based coalition to bring about peace, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;Don&#8217;t talk about peace, don&#8217;t talk about a regional agreement, what we have to look for is a way to cooperate with my enemy&#8217;s enemy,&#8221; he explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Udi Sommer, Tel Aviv University <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">TAU <\/span>professor of political science, <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">Udi Sommer, <\/span>who participated as a member of <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">was part of <\/span>the US delegation in the simulation, said <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">that <\/span>there is <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">was <\/span>already evidence that this unlikely alliance is <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">was <\/span>subtly taking shape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;Creating a coalition of moderate Sunni states could counter ISIS as well as other extremist nonstate actors. Further, it may help embolden the weaker links in the chain of moderate state actors. As the simulation demonstrated, Jordan may be one such crucial link,&#8221; said Sommer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Not only is it realistic, the way to move forward is these kind of strategic alliances,&#8221; he said, <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">pointed out, <\/span>noting <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">that with <\/span>Egypt&#8217;s security cooperation with Israel against Hamas. &#8220;Some of these alliances are already in place and the approach of the current American administration is deeply supportive of such coalitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;The big question now is if the US and Israel will be able to take the next step to involve additional countries like the UAE and the Saudis, who closely followed the events in Gaza last summer&#8221; he added, &#8220;and whose interests are in many respects surprisingly aligned with Israel vis-\u00e0-vis Iran and extremist elements.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The simulation mirrored the complexity of current Middle East dynamics, and while attaining such a collation is in the interests of many players, its prospects are &#8220;unclear.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;The prospects of such a moderate Sunni coalition are unclear, however, as American strategy against extremists in Iraq and Syria becomes increasingly reliant on Iranian fighters or Iranian-backed militiamen,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>World War III almost broke out at Tel Aviv University last week, though cooler heads prevailed in the 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