{"id":17615,"date":"2021-09-24T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-09-24T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2021\/09\/24\/america-needs-a-permanent-military-presence-in-the-baltics-and-heres-why\/"},"modified":"2026-08-20T14:10:42","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T14:10:42","slug":"america-needs-a-permanent-military-presence-in-the-baltics-and-heres-why","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/commentary\/2021\/09\/24\/america-needs-a-permanent-military-presence-in-the-baltics-and-heres-why\/","title":{"rendered":"America needs a permanent military presence in the Baltics, and here\u2019s why"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With the Defense Department weighing whether and how to change the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stratcom.mil\/Media\/News\/News-Article-View\/Article\/2773654\/global-posture-review-still-on-track-pentagon-spokesman-says\/\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. military footprint overseas<\/a>, it\u2019s time to make the American military presence in the Baltic states durable. Maintaining merely periodic American boots on the ground, sometimes there and sometimes not \u2014 especially while a more permanent U.S. presence takes shape <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/news\/your-military\/2020\/08\/16\/pompeo-inks-deal-to-support-more-american-troops-in-poland\/\" target=\"_blank\">in nearby Poland<\/a> \u2014 sends the wrong message at the wrong time to NATO\u2019s most vulnerable allies and to Russian President Vladimir Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Particularly in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the concerns generated over American credibility, only a consistent U.S. military presence in each of the Baltic states can convincingly reassure allies that Washington has their back while also signaling to Putin the rock-solid American commitment to NATO. The seemingly rushed, chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan has caused <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/europe-reacts-bidens-afghanistan-withdrawal\/\" target=\"_blank\">some American allies<\/a> in Europe to question Washington\u2019s commitment to NATO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From this side of the Atlantic, linking the failure of the 20-year effort in Afghanistan to American credibility in Europe sounds absurd. After all, Afghanistan is a country with which the U.S. doesn\u2019t share significant cultural or historical ties, a treaty-based mutual defense commitment, or serious trade and investment relations. Meanwhile, America\u2019s cultural, historical, demographic, defense, and trade and investment connections to Europe are second to none. It\u2019s no exaggeration to say that the American way of life \u2014 not to mention the outcome of the great power competition now unfolding between the United States on one side and China and Russia on the other \u2014 depends on a close, secure relationship with Europe. Not so with Afghanistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nonetheless, perception is reality, and the lack of an enduring American presence in the Baltic states looks even worse than it would in the absence of the Afghanistan debacle. This is particularly the case today in Lithuania, which is literally and figuratively on the front lines of Western efforts against both Russian and Chinese authoritarianism. Wedged among the Baltic Sea, a hostile neighbor in Belarus and the Russian territory of Kaliningrad \u2014 the most militarized piece of land in Europe \u2014 this relatively small ally confronts outsized threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Over the last several years, Russia has significantly increased the number of offensive <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/russia-military-kaliningrad\/russia-adds-firepower-to-kaliningrad-exclave-citing-nato-threat-idUSKBN28H1B8\" target=\"_blank\">conventional<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2018\/jun\/18\/kaliningrad-nuclear-bunker-russia-satellite-photos-report\" target=\"_blank\">nuclear<\/a> weapons in its Kaliningrad exclave, which shares a 185-mile border with Lithuania. Most recently, the just completed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/global\/europe\/2021\/09\/13\/as-zapad-military-drills-heat-up-signs-of-a-lasting-russian-footprint-in-belarus\/\" target=\"_blank\">Zapad military exercise<\/a> involved up to 200,000 Russian and Belarusian soldiers, sailors and airmen, as well as hundreds of tanks and artillery pieces first defending against in an imaginary invasion and then simulating a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usni.org\/magazines\/proceedings\/2021\/september\/zapad-2021-brief\" target=\"_blank\">counterattack<\/a> into Lithuanian (and Polish) territory. Worrisomely, the exercise may result in a permanent Russian presence in Belarus. Meanwhile, Belarus has recently <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2021\/08\/13\/eu-is-furious-that-belarus-allowed-more-than-4000-migrants-cross-into-europe\/\" target=\"_blank\">weaponized migrants<\/a>, sending thousands of Iraqis and sub-Saharan Africans across the border into Lithuania over the last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/outlook\/2021\/01\/11\/russia-analyst-what-are-the-kremlins-priorities-for-2021\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"156\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Dmitri-Trenin-Russia-analyst-web.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Russia analyst: What are the Kremlin\u2019s priorities for 2021?<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">Top of the list of Russia&#039;s defense industrial priorities in the past decade has been its nuclear forces. Now, let&#039;s see what leads the list for this year.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Much farther afield, China has opened a trade embargo against Lithuania and <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/europe-business-health-china-coronavirus-pandemic-1a689c07bfa34ab638c9b57f3235fe3e\" target=\"_blank\">pulled its ambassador<\/a> from Vilnius. These moves were in response to Lithuania\u2019s seemingly innocuous decision to allow Taiwan to open a diplomatic post in Vilnius under the name \u201cTaiwan\u201d as well as Lithuania\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/lithuania-pulls-out-china-17-1-bloc-eastern-central-europe-foreign-minister-gabrielius-landsbergis\/\" target=\"_blank\">withdrawal<\/a> from a Chinese-led effort to co-opt Central and Eastern European countries known as 17+1. Additionally, Lithuania has been subject to extensive cyberattacks attributed to both <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/lithuania-coronavirus-pandemic-covid-19-pandemic-national-security-russia-4f643495296f645e8957594034ec0367\" target=\"_blank\">Russia<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/905a236253d4fcca275159b227d34667\" target=\"_blank\">China<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A small but permanent American presence in Lithuania would bolster U.S. and allied security in northeastern Europe in three ways. First, it would clearly indicate to allies and adversaries that Lithuanian sovereignty and territorial integrity is a vital American interest. Second, it could be utilized to fill gaps in Lithuanian defense capabilities today, particularly in terms of anti-tank, artillery, UAVs and electronic warfare. And finally, it would provide Vilnius the confidence it needs to invest more in advanced, offensive cyber, electronic warfare, and information operations, better enabling it to respond to the most likely attacks from Russia and China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The principal objections to a durable U.S. presence are that it might somehow violate the terms of a 1997 <a href=\"https:\/\/carnegieeurope.eu\/strategiceurope\/71385\" target=\"_blank\">agreement<\/a> between NATO and Russia, or that it might intimidate Putin, causing a spiraling counter-reaction. Assuming a carefully calibrated presence that\u2019s nested within an already persistent NATO commitment to the region, these concerns are overblown relative to the wide-ranging security benefits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For example, under NATO\u2019s Enhanced Forward Presence initiative, Germany has led a multinational battlegroup of roughly 1,100 troops in Lithuania since 2017. Adding a company-sized American contingent of about 120 U.S. troops to this NATO presence as well as to similar Enhanced Forward Presence units in Latvia and Estonia could hardly be considered destabilizing, but would go far in reassuring allies and deterring Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lithuania and its Baltic state neighbors are punching above their weight within NATO, consistently bearing more than their share of the common defense burden. But Washington needs to fix the holes in NATO\u2019s deterrent posture in the region and the glaring lack of persistent U.S. presence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i>John R. Deni is a research professor at the U.S. Army War College\u2019s Strategic Studies Institute and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. He is the author of \u201cCoalition of the unWilling and unAble: European Realignment and the Future of American Geopolitics.\u201d The views expressed in this commentary are his own.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The seemingly rushed, chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan has caused some American allies in Europe to question Washington\u2019s commitment to NATO.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":35648,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":66,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[66,160,46,11,36,17,48],"tags":[8586,8611],"coauthors":[3842],"class_list":["post-17615","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-daily-news-roundup","category-europe","category-global","category-newsletters","category-opinion","category-the-americas","tag-commentary","tag-europe"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"3IBEKU7YVFB7TLZXQCZIBSYUIU","arc_canonical_url":"\/opinion\/commentary\/2021\/09\/24\/america-needs-a-permanent-military-presence-in-the-baltics-and-heres-why\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>America needs a permanent military presence in the Baltics, and here\u2019s why - Defense News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The seemingly rushed, chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan has caused some American allies in Europe to question Washington\u2019s commitment to NATO.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"America needs a permanent military presence in the Baltics, and here\u2019s why\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The seemingly rushed, chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan has caused some American allies in Europe to question Washington\u2019s commitment to NATO.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/commentary\/2021\/09\/24\/america-needs-a-permanent-military-presence-in-the-baltics-and-heres-why\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Defense News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-09-24T09:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-08-20T14:10:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"John R. 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