{"id":19382,"date":"2018-01-02T16:20:51","date_gmt":"2018-01-02T16:20:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2018\/01\/02\/russias-radar-shortcomings-are-a-us-problem-now\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T17:35:05","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T17:35:05","slug":"russias-radar-shortcomings-are-a-us-problem-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/newsletters\/military-space-report\/2018\/01\/02\/russias-radar-shortcomings-are-a-us-problem-now\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia\u2019s radar shortcomings are a US problem now"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lost in the overall frenzy of North Korea\u2019s first intercontinental ballistic missile test last July was a peculiar detail of understated significance: While the United States, Japan, South Korea, and North Korea all agreed that the Hwasong-14 was an ICBM, one country did not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Spoiler alert: It was Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Russia instead claimed the missile was only an intermediate range (and not intercontinental) ballistic missile. In July, <a href=\"https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2017\/07\/why-is-russia-denying-that-north-korea-launched-an-icbm\/\" target=\"_blank\">The Diplomat<\/a> walked through some possibilities of what this might mean, be it technical error, political gamesmanship, or a genuine deficiency in capability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After the second North Korean test of an ICBM in July, Russia again refused match the rest of the world in declaring the ICBM test as an ICBM. This repeated failure suggests a limitation in current Russian early-warning radars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2017\/08\/north-koreas-second-icbm-test-introduced-new-features-to-the-missiles-second-stage\/\" target=_blank>The Diplomat<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gaps and limitations in Russia\u2019s early warning capability have long been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.armscontrolwonk.com\/archive\/206789\/6789\/\" target=_blank>documented<\/a> by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.armscontrolwonk.com\/archive\/502257\/russia-north-korea-worse-than-you-thought\/\" target=_blank>foreign observers<\/a>. And while North Korea has never been the adversary Russian radars are designed to watch, a failure to see North Korean ICBMs could mean Russia instead detects missile interceptors fired by the United States as a unique threat, rather than a response to a launch by Pyongyang. (Joshua Pollack explored that possibility, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.armscontrolwonk.com\/archive\/502248\/russia-eyes-north-korea\/\" target=_blank>complete with diagrams and maps<\/a> in 2009.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In December 2016 Russia boasted that it completed construction of<a href=\"http:\/\/russianforces.org\/blog\/2016\/12\/no_gaps_in_early-warning_cover.shtml\" target=_blank> its early-warning coverage<\/a>, and in December 2017, Russia\u2019s Air and Space Forces announced the start of combat <a href=\"http:\/\/russianforces.org\/blog\/2017\/12\/three_early-warning_radars_beg.shtml\" target=_blank>operations at its last three early warning sites<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And there remains a curious omission: Russia\u2019s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov took <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ArtyomLukin\/status\/939832083282788353\">until December<\/a> to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mid.ru\/ru\/press_service\/minister_speeches\/-\/asset_publisher\/7OvQR5KJWVmR\/content\/id\/2983345\">acknowledge that North Korea had any ICBMs at all<\/a>, and even then, only acknowledged the November test of the much larger Hwasong-15.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All this leaves a distinct possibility that, should North Korea launch a Hwasong-14, Russia would be unable to see the smaller ICBM as what it actually is, and in what would invariably be a tense hour, might misread actions and intentions after that point. Which, in turn, casts a lot of doubt on the success and utility of even the newly completed early warning system.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A failure by Russian radars to see North Korean ICBMs could mean Russia detects missile interceptors fired by the United States as a unique threat, rather than a response to a launch by Pyongyang.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":39615,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":163,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[45,160,46,11,163,36,23],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3144],"class_list":["post-19382","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asia-pacific","category-daily-news-roundup","category-europe","category-global","category-military-space-report","category-newsletters","category-space"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"V5AP2EHVBZCMDBRTFKB2VVKGVY","arc_canonical_url":"\/intel-geoint\/sensors\/2018\/01\/02\/russias-radar-shortcomings-are-a-us-problem-now\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Russia\u2019s radar shortcomings are a US problem now - Defense News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A failure by Russian radars to see North Korean ICBMs could mean Russia detects missile interceptors fired by the United States as a unique threat, rather than a response to a launch by Pyongyang.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/intel-geoint\/sensors\/2018\/01\/02\/russias-radar-shortcomings-are-a-us-problem-now\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Russia\u2019s radar shortcomings are a US problem now\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A failure by Russian radars to see North Korean ICBMs could mean Russia detects missile interceptors fired by the United States as a unique threat, rather than a response to a launch by Pyongyang.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/newsletters\/military-space-report\/2018\/01\/02\/russias-radar-shortcomings-are-a-us-problem-now\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Defense News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-01-02T16:20:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-08-08T17:35:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Kelsey D. 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