{"id":20452,"date":"2022-06-21T19:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-06-21T19:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2022\/06\/21\/worried-about-inflation-and-the-defense-budget-a-continuing-resolution-could-make-things-worse\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T21:51:11","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T21:51:11","slug":"worried-about-inflation-and-the-defense-budget-a-continuing-resolution-could-make-things-worse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/commentary\/2022\/06\/21\/worried-about-inflation-and-the-defense-budget-a-continuing-resolution-could-make-things-worse\/","title":{"rendered":"Worried about inflation and the defense budget? A continuing resolution could make things worse"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Concerns about inflation have dominated the debate around the defense budget request for fiscal 2023. The Department of Defense requested $773 billion in discretionary funds, roughly 4% more in nominal dollars than the base budget level enacted by Congress for FY22.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But while rising inflation rates threaten DoD\u2019s purchasing power, congressional politics around a continuing resolution to start FY23 could exacerbate inflation\u2019s impact on the defense budget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Biden administration locked in its inflation assumptions in November of last year, projecting that inflation would decline through FY22 from FY21 highs and eventually level out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But those forecasts have thus far proven more optimistic than realistic. Annual inflation measured by the consumer price index rose from 6.8% in November 2021 to a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/06\/10\/business\/economy\/may-2022-cpi-inflation.html\" target=\"_blank\">peak of 8.6% in May 2022<\/a>, representing the largest annual increase in consumer prices since December 1981.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The GDP-chained price index, which DoD uses to measure inflation, was estimated at an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/2022-05\/gdp1q22_2nd.pdf#page=12\" target=\"_blank\">annual rate of 8.1%<\/a> in the first quarter of 2022 \u2014 well above the administration\u2019s assumption of 3.9%. While it\u2019s too soon to know with any certainty what inflation will be in FY23, current conditions suggest it will be higher than the 2.2% forecasted by the administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This high rate of inflation poses a threat to the department\u2019s purchasing power. Instead of the real increase in defense spending assumed by DoD, rising prices over 2022 likely means the requested level of funding represents a cut. And the administration\u2019s five-year funding projections could mean an even greater loss in purchasing power \u2014 potentially over $300 billion between FY23 and FY27 \u2014 should high inflation persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unless the Biden administration intends to scale back the demands it places on an already over-stressed military \u2014 which appears unlikely given the conflict in Ukraine and the administration\u2019s recent decision to <a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2022\/05\/16\/us-troops-somalia-return\/\" target=\"_blank\">redeploy troops to Somalia<\/a> for counterterrorism missions \u2014 DoD must work with Congress to mitigate the effects of inflation. In May, Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks expressed the department\u2019s willingness to work with legislators on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reaganfoundation.org\/media\/359078\/kathleenhickseventconversationtranscript_0.pdf#page=10\" target=\"_blank\">updating inflation estimates<\/a> to protect DoD\u2019s buying power in the FY23 request.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The ball is firmly in Congress\u2019 court to combat the effects of inflation on the defense budget given its constitutionally-mandated power of the purse. But congressional politics could threaten to exacerbate inflation\u2019s effects on DoD\u2019s purchasing power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If Congress fails to pass appropriations by the start of the fiscal year on Oct. 1 \u2014 a task made more difficult by the administration\u2019s late budget request \u2014 DoD will likely be forced to operate under a continuing resolution for months. The department is no stranger to working under continuing resolutions, having started the year under one for 15 of the past 20 fiscal years with an average CR length of over 112 days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But a long-term continuing resolution this year would have a more severe impact given inflation. Under a normal continuing resolution, DoD would be funded at the FY22 base funding level of $742 billion (excluding emergency supplemental funding in FY 2022), which would mean a significant loss in buying power to start the fiscal year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A long-term continuing resolution may be more likely given this year\u2019s midterm elections. If one or both chambers of Congress shift control, legislators may delay passing appropriations until the new Congress is seated in January 2023 to gain more favorable terms in budget negotiations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Biden administration and both political parties in Congress must work together to mitigate the effects of inflation by passing FY23 appropriations by the start of the fiscal year. To get buy-in from Democrats and Republicans, this will likely require a budget agreement that increases funding levels for both defense and non-defense programs above the administration\u2019s request. Washington has seen this trend before: During the Budget Control Act era of the last decade, both parties came together to increase defense and non-defense funding above the spending limits in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/what-does-bipartisan-budget-act-2019-mean-defense\" target=\"_blank\">series of budget deals<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If they fail to reach an agreement to pass a long-term appropriations bill by the start of the fiscal year, Congress at the very least can pass a continuing resolution that raises funding for defense and non-defense programs above FY22 levels by a uniform across-the-board rate, as they have done at times in the past. This would provide a temporary solution that restores some lost buying power in FY23.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i>Seamus P. Daniels is an associate fellow and the associate director for defense budget analysis in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While rising inflation rates threaten DoD\u2019s purchasing power, congressional politics around a continuing resolution to start FY23 could exacerbate inflation\u2019s impact on the defense budget.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":66,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[66,160,36,17],"tags":[],"coauthors":[4271],"class_list":["post-20452","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commentary","category-daily-news-roundup","category-newsletters","category-opinion"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"Y2W2UYRIAJANZJT2ASOWGVLAZE","arc_canonical_url":"\/opinion\/commentary\/2022\/06\/21\/worried-about-inflation-and-the-defense-budget-a-continuing-resolution-could-make-things-worse\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Worried about inflation and the defense budget? 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