{"id":20717,"date":"2016-02-15T19:30:33","date_gmt":"2016-02-15T19:30:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2016\/02\/15\/commentary-negating-north-koreas-nukes\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T21:55:07","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T21:55:07","slug":"commentary-negating-north-koreas-nukes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/commentary\/2016\/02\/15\/commentary-negating-north-koreas-nukes\/","title":{"rendered":"Commentary: Negating North Korea\u2019s Nukes"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

North Korea\u2019s recent nuclear test has generated much media attention and expert commentary.\u00a0Notwithstanding legitimate concerns about nuclear weapons in the hands of a rogue regime, there\u2019s been a lot of hand-wringing about what to do. about it.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many urge press for <\/span>negotiations to contain or even roll back the nuclear program, but DPRK\u2019s leaders have shown no interest. They say they\u2019re going to keep their nukes to avoid what happened to Iraq\u2019s Saddam Hussein and Libya\u2019s Moammar Gadhafi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Absent agreement on preconditions for talks, President Obama has wisely chosen not to provide Kim Jong Un with an ill-deserved negotiating forum, and the associated stature that comes with major power engagement, simply because he possesses or tests nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what should we do? \u00a0Yes, increase secondary sanctions, freeze overseas bank accounts\u00a0and seek further to isolate a regime that, as documented by a well-regarded UN panel, has carried out unspeakable crimes against a large segment of its population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most important, our approach should also include a concerted military-technical effort to deny Kim Jong Un and his crowd the perceived benefits of owning nukes. We must convey to them credible US\u00a0capabilities to prevent or otherwise thwart any use of nuclear weapons against our forces or allies. in the region.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What, specifically, are the needed capabilities?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0Exquisite intelligence to know when a nuclear ballistic missile launch is being considered or directed, and to prevent or delay a launch order from reaching missile units.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0Military capabilities to destroy fixed-based and mobile missiles on the ground before they can be launched or, if any get launched, advanced missile defenses to shoot them down. during boost or mid-course trajectory.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0Cyber capabilities to disrupt warhead arming and firing systems, or cause flaws to be introduced into warhead designs, so that any arriving warheads are duds. \u00a0On this last point, foreign “assistance” to North Korea’s nuclear program is a problem, but it is also an opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under With <\/span>such conditions, capabilities implemented, <\/span>North Korea\u2019s leaders would no longer “own” their nuclear weapons \u2014 in \u00a0a sense, we would.\u00a0 And, this is what we would want them to understand.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A bit fanciful? Not necessarily. The technologies, subsystems and capabilities exist today to address each one of these goals notwithstanding the need for a bit of luck here and there. It is well within the realm of technical possibility. \u00a0None involve U.S. nuclear weapons.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consider the problem of hunting mobile missiles. We didn’t do a very good job of\u00a0this during the first Iraq war in 1991. But the North Korean problem is different, and systems and technologies for sensing and locating, on-board high performance computing, precision strike, and command and control, have greatly advanced in 25 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

North Korea has about the same land mass as Virginia,\u00a0about one-fourth the size of Iraq. From Andrews AFB in Maryland, F-35 aircraft could reach any point in Virginia within 10-15 minutes. F-35s based in South Korea, not that much farther from North Korea than Andrews is from Virginia, could carry out precision conventional strikes within that same time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In theory, just a few stealthy drones, flying at appropriate altitudes and with appropriate revisit rates, could cover the entire country 24\/7, cueing strike aircraft shortly after a mobile missile was spotted. Just looking at a map, the North Korean road network is primitive and sparse. If mobile missiles are not easily off-road capable, then an area search problem is reduced to a much more manageable linear search. , which is much more manageable than hunting mobiles over vast areas of desert.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are reports that North Korea is developing a submarine-launched ballistic missile that it may consider more survivable than land-based missiles. Given US\u00a0capabilities to locate and track noisy, older generation submarines, such as those possessed by North Korea, this is not likely to be a prudent investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Much work remains to realize capabilities to negate North Korea\u2019s nukes.\u00a0<\/span>The most difficult challenge will be cutting across bureaucratic stovepipes and compartments of US\u00a0intelligence, defense R&D, and military operations to produce a system of systems able to negate North Korea’s nukes.\u00a0to do just that.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A second challenge will be ensuring that North Korea\u2019s isolated leaders receive the message, unfiltered by underlings, that they can\u2019t count on their nukes so they better not risk using them. Selected demonstrations of key US\u00a0capabilities could can <\/span>bolster messaging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Creating doubt about whether nuclear weapons are effective as a regime shield, or as means to coerce others, may lead to more risk-adverse regime behavior.\u00a0Kim Jong Un may be just a bit more likely to ponder a series of events that end with his being hauled before the International Criminal Court to answer for crimes against humanity. It may also open the door for serious negotiations not just on nukes but on the regime’s response to international pressures to restore basic human rights to its people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

John R. From 2009-2013, Dr. <\/span>Harvey<\/strong> served as principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear, chemical and biological defense programs from 2009-2013<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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