{"id":21239,"date":"2018-08-27T16:00:08","date_gmt":"2018-08-27T16:00:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2018\/08\/27\/currency-crisis-risks-turkish-defense-programs\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T21:54:41","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T21:54:41","slug":"currency-crisis-risks-turkish-defense-programs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/global\/europe\/2018\/08\/27\/currency-crisis-risks-turkish-defense-programs\/","title":{"rendered":"Currency crisis risks Turkish defense programs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ANKARA, Turkey \u2014 On Aug. 21, 2017, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/industry\/2018\/05\/24\/is-the-us-out-as-turkeys-top-western-arms-dealer\/\" target=_blank>the U.S. dollar<\/a> closed at 3.50 liras on the foreign currency markets. Exactly a year later, the dollar was being traded at 6.10 liras. In the same one-year period, the euro-to-lira rate went up from 4.12 to 7.03. The Turkish lira\u2019s value has fallen by almost one-third this month alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Turkey\u2019s defense and procurement planners now worry that the plunge of the national currency could expose foreign currency-related weapons programs to the risk of major delays or suspension.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThis (the lira plunge) has become a major externality,&#8221; a Turkish procurement official said. &#8220;It was an uncalculated risk which now jeopardizes several procurement programs unless the lira quickly recovers to pre-crisis levels.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cA quick recovery or a recovery at all looks quite unlikely,\u201d according to Ahmet Dogan, an economist and founder of the Ankara-based Sigma Insight Turkey think tank. \u201cApart from the political and economic challenges, [which have driven the lira downward], there are fundamental macroeconomic problems making a lira recovery nearly impossible.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/global\/the-americas\/2018\/08\/13\/diplomatic-row-jeopardizes-15b-helicopter-deal-between-turkey-and-pakistan\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"178\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/1454921.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">Diplomatic row jeopardizes $1.5B helicopter deal between Turkey and Pakistan<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">Turkey and Pakistan signed a deal in July for 30 T129 ATAK helicopter gunships. That may not happen now.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Turkey\u2019s current account deficit was $57.4 billion in June, a record high 5.9 percent of the country\u2019s gross domestic product. Annual interest rates on 10-year government bonds hover around 21 percent, the highest in emerging market economies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Debt piled up elsewhere in the economy, too; the government, banks, factories and homeowners all binged on cheap credit from abroad \u2014 to the tune of $460 billion, more than half of Turkey\u2019s GDP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cAll that picture tells us [is] that the lira will remain a weak currency,\u201d Dogan said. \u201cThat will put additional financing pressure on all government projects, including defense, that come with foreign financing.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For instance, Turkey has been negotiating the acquisition of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/smr\/nato-priorities\/2018\/07\/11\/turkey-defiant-on-purchase-of-russian-s-400-anti-missile-weapon\/\" target=_blank>Russian-made S-400 air and anti-missile defense systems<\/a> since early last year. If finalized and paid in full a year earlier, the $2.5 billion deal would have cost Turkey\u2019s treasury 8.75 billion liras. Today the same contract would cost Turkey 15.25 billion liras, about a 75 percent increase in terms of Turkish currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Similarly, Turkey would now face a bill worth 97.6 billion liras, at the current exchange rate, for the planned purchase of 100 F-35 aircraft instead of 56 billion liras.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cYou can apply the same logic and simple computation to all other foreign currency-related programs,\u201d Dogan said. \u201cThat makes a gloomy financing picture.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Turkey must select a foreign-made engine to power the TF-X, the first Turkish indigenous fighter jet in the making. The Ankara government also will select a foreign-made engine and transmission system for the Altay, the Turkish indigenous main battle tank in the making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And there are several critical foreign parts and systems used on the T129, the Turkish helicopter gunship produced under license from the Italian-British AgustaWestland. Turkey also regularly acquires imported smart ammunition used in its fight against Kurdish insurgents inside Turkey and in northern Iraq and Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThese are all payments that must be done in dollars and euros,\u201d Dogan said. \u201cAll of these items have suddenly become exorbitantly expensive or unaffordable for Ankara.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blames the currency chaos on an \u201cunderhanded plot\u201d that aims to bring Turkey to heel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite being NATO allies, Turkey and the United States have clashed over a number of issues in recent years, including divergences over Syria policy, Turkey\u2019s planned deployment of the S-400 system, U.S. sanctions on Turkey\u2019s arms purchases, including the F-35 program, looming U.S. penalties on a Turkish state bank, and differences over U.S. sanctions on Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tensions most recently boiled over when Turkey refused to free a U.S. evangelical preacher despite U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s demands he be released immediately. In response, Trump doubled U.S. tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminium imports, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned of more punitive measures against Turkey. Erdogan replied with a call on Turks to boycott U.S. electronics products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Turkey\u2019s defense procurement office, the Defence Industry Executive of the Presidency (SSB in its Turkish acronym), announced new measures to counter the effects of currency fluctuations on its acquisitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It announced that it would convert foreign currency guarantees in past and ongoing contracts into Turkish liras and sign up new contract guarantees (like letters of credit from banks) in lira terms instead of U.S. dollar terms. SSB, previously the Undersecretariat for Defence Industries, reports directly to Erdogan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThat may put foreign and local contractors at currency risk. Contractors would be reluctant to accept bank guarantees in lira terms or they would reflect that risk into their final prices,\u201d a foreign company executive said, speaking on condition of anonymity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s also possible that banks may grow increasingly reluctant to offer loans and bank guarantees in financing defense programs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe lira\u2019s plunge has eroded capital reserves in the banking system and threatens a wave of bankruptcies. Financing public projects in general and defense programs in particular may prove be difficult for Turkish banks,\u201d Dogan said. \u201cThe crisis came at a time when a number of leading business and industrial conglomerates in the country have been queuing up in front of banks for debt refinancing and debt restructuring.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A local aerospace company official said the currency crisis would not only distort off-the-shelf purchases and foreign suppliers\u2019 business in Turkey, but also several local producers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cTurkish companies use a rich list of imported equipment, even in indigenous Turkish systems they produce. They now face a tremendous increase in their Turkish lira-based costings. It is inevitable that even locally developed systems will become a lot more expensive for the Turkish end user,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Turkey\u2019s defense and procurement planners are worried the plunge of the national currency could expose foreign currency-related weapons programs to the risk of major delays or suspension.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":44120,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":46,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[160,46,11,12,36],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3466],"class_list":["post-21239","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news-roundup","category-europe","category-global","category-industry","category-newsletters"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"NJUJFQZWIRHG3FJZV5RI35O4XE","arc_canonical_url":"\/global\/europe\/2018\/08\/27\/currency-crisis-risks-turkish-defense-programs\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Currency crisis risks Turkish defense programs - Defense News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Turkey\u2019s defense and procurement planners are worried the plunge of the national currency could expose foreign currency-related weapons programs to the risk of major delays or suspension.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Currency crisis risks Turkish defense programs\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Turkey\u2019s defense and procurement planners are worried the plunge of the national currency could expose foreign currency-related weapons programs to 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