{"id":21300,"date":"2015-12-13T18:02:15","date_gmt":"2015-12-13T18:02:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2015\/12\/13\/commentary-growing-threats-reorient-turkish-military-industry\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T21:54:45","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T21:54:45","slug":"commentary-growing-threats-reorient-turkish-military-industry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/commentary\/2015\/12\/13\/commentary-growing-threats-reorient-turkish-military-industry\/","title":{"rendered":"Commentary: Growing Threats Reorient Turkish Military, Industry"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><span class=\"rte rte-comment\">defense and security analyst, Izmir University of Economics (Author of &#8220;Missile Threat and NATO&#8217;s Missile Shield.&#8221;<\/span>\u200b<br\/><br\/><span class=\"rte rte-comment\">Pullquote: The closing months of 2015 brought what could be viewed as the most dramatic turnabout in Turkey&#8217;s security environment since the end of Cold War<\/span>\u200b<br\/><br\/>The past year <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">2015<\/span>\u200b brought multiple, diverse <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">and diversifying <\/span>\u200bsecurity challenges for Turkish policymakers. It<span class=\"rte rte-comment\">The year<\/span>\u200b opened with Turkey gradually becoming a primary target of <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">the <\/span>\u200bIslamic State group (IS) suicide bombers. This included the bloodiest terrorist attack <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">ever <\/span>\u200bin Turkey&#8217;s history, when two IS human bombs exploded themselves in Ankara and took the lives of more than 100 on Oct. 10.<br\/><br\/>What has been evident for security analysts and international observers became a priority <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">concern <\/span>\u200bfor the general public<span class=\"rte rte-comment\"> as well<\/span>\u200b: Turkey&#8217;s porous border with Syria allowed for two-way movement of terrorist groups, some of which posed a direct danger for <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">Turkey<\/span>\u200b the country. <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">Consequently, <\/span>\u200bTurkey&#8217;s recurring statements over the years to tighten and seal its borders to the south and east gained <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">a <\/span>\u200bnew momentum, and its patchy and piecemeal border security programs could finally be expected to make some true progress. <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">pick some pace and substance.<\/span>\u200b<br\/><br\/>Another result <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">second outcome <\/span>\u200bof the IS bombings <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">inside Turkish territory <\/span>\u200bhas been to push Turkey solidly toward the anti-IS <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">collation<\/span>\u200b coalition. Turkey had already allowed its Incirlik airbase to be used by the US for unarmed UAV and reconnaissance flights inside Syria<span class=\"rte rte-comment\">n territory<\/span>\u200b. Throughout 2015, not only did those flights <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">have <\/span>\u200bgradually expand<span class=\"rte rte-comment\">ed<\/span>\u200b to cover bombing raids conducted by an <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">ever-<\/span>\u200bincreasing number of US combat aircraft, but the Turkish Air Force has also joined in with airstrikes of its own against IS targets.<br\/><br\/>These threats and possible conflict with Russia will mean growing orders for domestic industry in certain critical fields. Apparently, the Turkish Air Force prefers precision-guided munitions for those air raids, signifying a dramatic increase in demand and <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">the consequent fresh <\/span>\u200borders for guided aircraft bombs and missiles, some of which have already begun arriving. <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">even before 2015 came to an end.<\/span>\u200b Turkish industry has a number of local designs to satisfy those requirements, but not all achieved <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">of them reached the phase of <\/span>\u200bhigh-volume serial production, therefore, <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">thence <\/span>\u200bthe slack is certain to be taken up by international suppliers.<br\/><br\/>Further complicating Turkish policymakers&#8217; task has been the breakdown of the fragile cease-fire with the Kurdistan Workers&#8217; Party (PKK), an insurgent group that Turkey and the U.S. have listed as a terrorist group. From July <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">2015 <\/span>\u200bonward, hundreds of soldiers and policemen lost their lives when <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">they were <\/span>\u200bambushed by <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">IEDs<\/span>\u200b improvised bombs that were apparently placed <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">in <\/span>\u200bby the PKK during the elusive cease-fire.<br\/><br\/><span class=\"rte rte-comment\">Besides, <\/span>\u200bRocket-propelled grenades <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">RPGs<\/span>\u200b and in a few instances<span class=\"rte rte-comment\">, even<\/span>\u200b anti-tank guided weapons<span class=\"rte rte-comment\">,<\/span>\u200b have taken their <span class=\"rte rte-comment\"> took their <\/span>\u200btoll on Turkish armored vehicles. In Turkey&#8217;s southeast, security forces rely heavily on their wheeled armored vehicles for operations, but <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">to operate and move around; yet, <\/span>\u200bTurkish operators are learning first-hand that the protection provided by bare armor is not always sufficient.<br\/><br\/>High demand should be expected for technologies and add-on kits to improve vehicle survivability. <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">of armored vehicles could be expected to be on high demand. <\/span>\u200bLikewise, high-tech ISR assets and capabilities to identify and combat terrorist activity <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">in rural and urban areas <\/span>\u200bare certain to score high on the wish list of Turkish security forces.<br\/><br\/>The closing months of 2015 <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">also <\/span>\u200bbrought what could <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">possibly <\/span>\u200bbe viewed <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">termed <\/span>\u200bas the most dramatic turnabout in Turkey&#8217;s security environment since the <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">end of<\/span>\u200b Cold War ended: confrontation and real possibility of an armed conflict with Russia. The latter&#8217;s deployment in September <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">2015 <\/span>\u200bof combat aircraft in western Syria was <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">promptly<\/span>\u200b followed by airstrikes on groups opposed to President Bashar al-Assad&#8217;s rule, some of which turned out to be the insurgents and opposition forces assisted, replenished and trained by Turkey and its Western and Gulf allies.<br\/><br\/>The unease felt with the target set of Russian air raids was magnified by recurring violations of Turkish airspace by Russian jets. The tragic outcome of this dangerous escalation was the shooting down of a Russian jet by Turkish fighters on Nov. 24. Russia&#8217;s very strong reaction was not confined to economic and political spheres, but <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">it <\/span>\u200balso included deployment of some of its most sophisticated military assets inside Syria. Those included S-400 air defense systems whose range extend well into Turkish airspace, and some of Russia&#8217;s <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">Navy&#8217;s <\/span>\u200bmost capable surface combatants deployed directly across from Turkey&#8217;s southern shores.<br\/><br\/>After a 25-year lull, the renewed prospects of a conventional, old-style military confrontation with a major military power like Russia will <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">certainly <\/span>\u200bhave <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">its <\/span>\u200brepercussions not only on Turkey&#8217;s procurement plans and priorities, but also on her geostrategic positioning and orientation.<br\/><br\/>An early victim was <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">In fact, an early toll has been <\/span>\u200bthe famous (or infamous?) T-LORAMIDS program aimed at acquiring a long-range air and missile defense system, whose tender two <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">had resulted 2 <\/span>\u200byears ago favored <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">resulted in favor <\/span>\u200ba Chinese manufacturer, and this, at the expense of US, European and Russian contenders.<br\/><br\/>The US and NATO <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">had <\/span>\u200bmade no secrets of their unease with the decision and <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">they had <\/span>\u200bdeclared that they would not allow integration of a non-Western system into NATO&#8217;s command-control and air\/missile defense architecture.<br\/><br\/>Shortly after the dramatic downturn of <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">her <\/span>\u200brelations with Moscow, Ankara <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">has <\/span>\u200bcanceled the tender <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">in question, <\/span>\u200band announced that systems in this category would be developed by Turkish industry, with assistance from foreign parties. Against the background of Turkey&#8217;s totally altered security circumstances, those &#8220;foreign parties&#8221; are most unlikely to be Russian or Chinese.<br\/><br\/>Likewise, early rumors of a British contender as being selected as the technology partner for Turkey&#8217;s F-X indigenous fighter aircraft could <span class=\"rte rte-comment\">also <\/span>\u200bbe seen as yet another sign of this new direction and orientation.<br\/><br\/><em>Egeli is a defense and security analyst at Izmir University of Economics.<\/em><br\/><br\/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The year 2015 brought multiple, diverse security challenges for Turkish 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