{"id":21595,"date":"2021-10-20T16:00:05","date_gmt":"2021-10-20T16:00:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2021\/10\/20\/chinese-hypersonic-missile-test-unlikely-to-trigger-arms-race-experts-say\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T21:58:20","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T21:58:20","slug":"chinese-hypersonic-missile-test-unlikely-to-trigger-arms-race-experts-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/land\/2021\/10\/20\/chinese-hypersonic-missile-test-unlikely-to-trigger-arms-race-experts-say\/","title":{"rendered":"Chinese hypersonic missile test unlikely to trigger arms race, experts say"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WASHINGTON \u2014 The August test of a Chinese space-based hypersonic missile<\/a> is unlikely to trigger an arms race, but could influence the White House and Defense Department\u2019s effort to shape new missile defense and nuclear posture strategies, experts say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Top military officials gave clues in the late summer and early fall that they knew this event, which was first reported by the Financial Times, was happening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gen. Glen VanHerck, the U.S. Northern Command chief, in a speech at the Space and Missile Defense Symposium in Huntsville, Alabama, in August, briefly mentioned China had \u201cjust demonstrated\u201d a \u201cvery fast\u201d hypersonic vehicle. At the time, he said he couldn\u2019t provide more detail, but noted the demonstration would challenge current threat warning systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And new Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall told reporters last month at the U.S. Air Force Association\u2019s annual conference that China has the ability to conduct global strikes from space.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Based on news reports, the Chinese appear to have combined a Fractional Orbital Bombardment System, or FOBS, with a hypersonic weapon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe combination of those two technologies creates two problems for our detection and tracking capabilities,\u201d Patty-Jane Geller, a policy analyst for nuclear deterrence and missile defense at the Heritage Foundation, told Defense News.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first is that the U.S. can detect most large rocket and missile launches, but might not be able to track a glide vehicle throughout its entire orbit or even see the Chinese orbital system is armed with something like a nuclear hypersonic weapon, she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second problem is that once the weapon is \u201cdeorbited\u201d or deployed from the system, then the U.S. has to deal with tracking a hypersonic weapon, \u201cwhich is a problem that we\u2019ve already been facing because hypersonic weapons fly at low altitudes at obviously very fast speeds and can maneuver to its target, making tracking very difficult,\u201d Geller added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Though she noted it was only a test, Geller said the implications could be significant. Even though China isn\u2019t necessarily explicitly developing a doctrine on preemptive strike, the test suggests it\u2019s thinking about the possibility given that it\u2019s experimenting with a capability that can evade early warning radars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, \u201cthis doesn\u2019t fundamentally upend strategic stability or deterrence,\u201d Ankit Panda, a senior fellow in the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Defense News. \u201cAmericans don\u2019t like it, but the way that the deterrence is most stable is if each side is vulnerable to the other.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s natural to want to avoid vulnerability to attack, Panda said, and so the U.S., Russia and China all invest in offensive and defensive missile capability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOur existing missile defenses are, I think, poor enough that China should really have no concern about their ability to penetrate using ballistic missiles,\u201d he said. \u201cThey don\u2019t need this capability.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But, if the U.S. successfully delivers a more robust homeland missile defense and early warning detection capability through programs like the Next-Generation Interceptor and other layered homeland defense technologies, \u201cdeterrence is a lot shakier if you are sitting in Moscow or Beijing,\u201d Panda said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSo I think they\u2019re interested in these kinds of exotic systems,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s technological ability to insert a hypersonic glider into low-earth orbit shouldn\u2019t come as a surprise, Panda said, but the strategic rationale for a hypersonic glider is less clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI think it would be a mistake to treat this test as the introduction of a new basing mode for China\u2019s nuclear weapons; we don\u2019t know if this is actually going to go anywhere,\u201d Panda said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He noted the test wasn\u2019t a perfect success; the missile reportedly missed its target by several dozen miles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The test could also have been experimenting with subsystems that could be used across a different set of missiles, according to Panda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While both China and the U.S. are developing enhanced deterrence, \u201cthe test does not mark the start of a new arms race,\u201d Panda said. He denied the test represents a new \u201cSputnik moment,\u201d referencing the Soviet satellite credited with spurring a space race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Influencing programs<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Still, Roman Schweizer, an analyst at the Cowen Group, said the assessment has one thing in common with Sputnik, noting \u201cgreat power competitions typically feature cycles of tech surprise and counters.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The test could drive budgets, focus and prioritize resources and influence strategy changes, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. has already invested billions in homeland ballistic missile defense, but China and Russia\u2019s new systems \u201cpose completely different challenges and would be extremely hard to defend in even limited salvos,\u201d Schweizer said. \u201cSpace-based sensors<\/a> and defenses will be critical.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Heritage\u2019s Geller agreed that a space-based tracking layer, already sought by the Pentagon, is key to seeing more threats in space. Programs like the Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor,<\/a> she said, will be important to defend against threats from China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Panda predicted the latest test will continue to drive existing defense programs, including hypersonic tracking from space and even hypersonic offensive and defensive capabilities<\/a> focused on a regional level as opposed to strategic.<\/p>\n\n\n\t