{"id":22196,"date":"2019-01-15T21:00:52","date_gmt":"2019-01-15T21:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2019\/01\/15\/new-defense-intelligence-assessment-warns-china-nears-critical-military-milestone\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T05:38:55","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T05:38:55","slug":"new-defense-intelligence-assessment-warns-china-nears-critical-military-milestone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/global\/asia-pacific\/2019\/01\/15\/new-defense-intelligence-assessment-warns-china-nears-critical-military-milestone\/","title":{"rendered":"New defense intelligence assessment warns China nears critical military milestone"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">WASHINGTON \u2014 In recent years, top defense officials and internal Pentagon reports alike have cautioned about the rise of China as a military power, in large part due to its investments in high-end technologies like <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/air\/2018\/07\/16\/3-thoughts-on-hypersonic-weapons-from-the-pentagons-technology-chief\/\" target=_blank>hypersonics<\/a> and its development of indigenous capabilities like stealth fighters and aircraft carriers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But it\u2019s not a piece of hardware that\u2019s most worrisome for American interests, according to a new assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency. Instead, it\u2019s the worry that the Chinese service members behind each system have reached a critical point of confidence where they now feel that in combat, the People\u2019s Liberation Army can match competitors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the long term, that could be bad news for America \u2014 and especially for Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Speaking to reporters Tuesday ahead of the new DIA 2019 \u201cChina Military Power\u201d report, a senior defense intelligence official called the idea that Beijing might soon trust its military capabilities well enough to invade Taiwan \u201cthe most concerning\u201d conclusion from the report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe biggest concern is that they are getting to a point where the PLA leadership may actually tell [President Xi Jinping] they are confident in their capabilities. We know in the past they have considered themselves a developing, weaker power,\u201d the official said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cAs a lot of these technologies mature, as their reorganization of their military comes into effect, as they become more proficient with these capabilities, the concern is we\u2019ll reach a point where internally in their decision-making they will decide that using military force for regional conflict is something that is more imminent,\u201d the official added.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/pentagon\/2018\/01\/30\/the-pentagon-is-planning-for-war-with-china-and-russia-can-it-handle-both\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"177\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/plaaf_j16_004.jpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">The Pentagon is planning for war with China and Russia \u2014 can it handle both?<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">War with China and war with Russia would have some overlapping qualities, but the Pentagon needs to figure out how and where to invest to deal with both.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The report is the first public analysis of Chinese military power released by the DIA, and the official said there is no classified version of this production. The Pentagon annually issues a report to Congress on the issue through a different, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/top-100\/2018\/08\/14\/chinas-military-capabilities-are-booming-but-does-its-defense-industry-mirror-that-trend\/\" target=\"_blank\">publicly released document<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is being released just days after Patrick Shanahan, the acting secretary of defense, used his first staff meeting to emphasize the Pentagon\u2019s prime focus must remain on \u201cChina, China, China.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Based on its assessment of Chinese official papers and statements, the DIA concluded that Chinese military modernization was not undertaken with a major global war in mind, but rather in preparation for further challenges to its regional efforts, potentially leading to a local war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWithin the context of Beijing\u2019s \u2018period of strategic opportunity,\u2019 as [China] continues to grow in strength and confidence, [U.S.] leaders will face a China insistent on having a greater voice in global interactions, which at times may be antithetical to U.S. interests,\u201d the agency reported.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/training-sim\/2018\/06\/07\/see-taiwans-military-simulate-fight-against-chinese-attack\/\" target=\"_blank\">reclamation of Taiwan<\/a> is a long-standing goal for Chinese leadership, and Xi has made no secret of that desire. The DIA notes that much of China\u2019s military modernization has been focused on Taiwan, including the emphasis on short-range missile technology that would largely be useless in any other theater of combat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Keeping Taiwan safe at the moment is a belief inside the PLA that the armed service doesn\u2019t have the training, doctrine and readiness levels needed for a full-scale invasion of the island. But should that change, the military has the technology and numbers at hand to make such a move possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWe don\u2019t have a real strong grasp on when they will think that they are confident in that capability,\u201d the official said. \u201cThey could order them to go today, but I don\u2019t think they are particularly confident in that capability.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Taiwan is not the only potential flashpoint identified by the DIA. While China is unlikely to seek out an active conflict near its territory, the official said, China\u2019s construction of man-made, militarized islands in the South China Sea as well as its assertion of rights to the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea could become points of tension.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-smg-jwplayer-video\"><atype-video-jwplayer nostick=\"true\" playlisturl=\"https:\/\/cdn.jwplayer.com\/v2\/playlists\/fCzRqMW8?tags=c3185ecd-f1ee-4654-bb6b-ff3c98b13efa\" poster=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/video-poster-c3185ecd-f1ee-4654-bb6b-ff3c98b13efa.jpg\" aspectratio=\"16 \/ 9\" mute autostart=\"false\"><\/atype-video-jwplayer><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">China\u2019s defense budget will rise this year as the country prepares to launch its second aircraft carrier, integrate stealth fighters into its air force, and field an array of advanced missiles.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But so, too, could China\u2019s expanded interests around the world, the official warned, citing the PLA\u2019s permanent base in Djibouti and willingness to sail ships farther abroad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWe now have to be able to look for a Chinese military that is active everywhere,\u201d the official said. \u201cI\u2019m not saying they are a threat or about to take military action everywhere, but they are present in a lot of places, and we will have to interact with them, engage with them, deal with them, monitor them more broadly than we had to before when they were very regionally focused near their own shores.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Technological upgrades<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While doctrine may lag behind, China\u2019s investments in new technologies are starting to bear fruit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the more than 100-page assessment on China, the agency noted China\u2019s continued modernization efforts of almost every aspect of its ground, sea, air and space forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The vast modernization effort \u2014 which includes the launch of its first independently developed aircraft carrier in 2019, the continued development of the Hong-20 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/air\/2018\/10\/11\/in-first-china-confirms-new-long-range-strategic-bomber-designation\/\">nuclear-capable bomber<\/a> and the emphasis it has placed in recent years on professionalizing its ground forces \u2014 has produced \u201ca robust, lethal force with capabilities spanning the air, maritime, space and information domains which will enable China to impose its will in the region,\u201d the DIA found.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Getting near par to American capabilities is one thing, but there are some areas where China threatens to surpass America \u2014 and may have already done so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The first is with hypersonic weaponry \u2014 delivery vehicles capable of going Mach 5 or faster. In the last two years, the Pentagon has been increasingly vocal about the need to invest more in its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/pentagon\/2018\/03\/02\/as-putin-touts-hypersonic-weapons-america-prepares-its-own-arsenal-will-it-be-in-time\/\" target=_blank>hypersonic capabilities<\/a>, both offensive and defensive, largely because of how much China has put toward the new weaponry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThey are on the leading edge of technology in that area [and are] getting to the point where they are going to field this system,\u201d the official said about hypersonic weapons, singling out hypersonic glide vehicles for ballistic missiles as the area in which Beijing has heavily invested.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">More broadly, China remains a leader in precision-strike capabilities, especially with medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles \u2014 something the official partly blamed on the fact the U.S. and Russia were barred from developing such systems under the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/pentagon\/2018\/10\/19\/us-reportedly-poised-to-abandon-key-arms-control-treaty-with-russia\/\" target=_blank>Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/c4isrnet\/electronic-warfare\/2018\/04\/11\/how-the-threat-to-satellites-is-changing\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"187\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/635779169950801453-koreas-tensionjpg.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">The sneaky ways China and Russia could threaten US satellites<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">Kinetic attacks in space are still possible, but nations are looking more towards electronic warfare and cyber attacks, a report has concluded.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">China is also excelling at developing anti-satellite capabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIn addition to the research and possible development of satellite jammers and directed-energy weapons, China has probably made progress on kinetic energy weapons, including the anti-satellite missile system tested in July 2014,\u201d the report reads. \u201cChina is employing more sophisticated satellite operations and probably is testing on-orbit dual-use technologies that could be applied to counterspace missions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Said the official: \u201cThey\u2019ve clearly been pushing forward on trying to build this comprehensive capability that can threaten U.S. and other satellites in all orbits, to build capability to threaten all these systems. &#8230; They think it\u2019s a potential vulnerability for us and allied forces, although they themselves are becoming more reliant on space-based capabilities.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The new assessment from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency warns that China may soon be comfortable making a move on Taiwan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":32906,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":45,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[45,160,11,36],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3493,3378],"class_list":["post-22196","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asia-pacific","category-daily-news-roundup","category-global","category-newsletters"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"IKBUNOD6HBAQPIBFPI6FQ4IYUI","arc_canonical_url":"\/news\/your-military\/2019\/01\/15\/new-defense-intelligence-assessment-warns-china-nears-critical-military-milestone\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented 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