{"id":24286,"date":"2021-07-07T20:58:50","date_gmt":"2021-07-07T20:58:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2021\/07\/07\/watchdog-group-finds-f-35-sustainment-costs-could-be-headed-off-affordability-cliff\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:06:51","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T22:06:51","slug":"watchdog-group-finds-f-35-sustainment-costs-could-be-headed-off-affordability-cliff","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/air\/2021\/07\/07\/watchdog-group-finds-f-35-sustainment-costs-could-be-headed-off-affordability-cliff\/","title":{"rendered":"Watchdog group finds F-35 sustainment costs could be headed off affordability cliff"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">WASHINGTON \u2014 Under current estimates, the U.S. Air Force will reach a tipping point where projected F-35 sustainment costs become too expensive, forcing the service to either <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/training-sim\/2021\/04\/12\/a-us-air-force-war-game-shows-what-the-service-needs-to-hold-off-or-win-against-china-in-2030\/\" target=\"_blank\">cut its planned buy<\/a> of the Lockheed Martin-made jet or drastically reduce flying hours, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/air\/2021\/03\/18\/development-costs-for-the-f-35s-modernization-program-increased-by-19b-in-a-year\/\" target=\"_blank\">Government Accountability Office<\/a> found in a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As the Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps\u2019 F-35 operations reach their peak in 2036, it will be exponentially difficult for the services to afford sustaining the F-35 if the cost per tail remains at current estimates, the GAO said in a July 7 report. Cost per tail per year is the measurement the Pentagon uses to measure how much money it takes to sustain a single aircraft annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Specifically, the Defense Department will face a $6 billion gap in 2036 between the actual cost of sustaining the services\u2019 F-35s and the cost the services can afford, the GAO said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">About $4.4 billion of that expense will be billed to the Air Force, which plans to buy 1,763 F-35A conventional takeoff and landing jets throughout the program of record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIf the projected annual sustainment cost overruns \u2014 conservatively estimated at tens of billions of dollars when aggregated \u2014 are not reversed and brought into alignment with the affordability constraints, over time there will be increasing and significant pressure on DOD\u2019s annual budget as the number of the aircraft in the F-35 fleet increases,\u201d the GAO said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cDecisions made and actions taken in the coming few years could have a significant effect on the affordability and effectiveness of the F-35 program in the longterm.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Specifically, Air Force officials told the GAO that unless sustainment costs decrease, \u201cthe service\u2019s only available remaining options to meet the affordability constraints are to reduce the total number of F-35A aircraft they plan to purchase, or to reduce the aircraft\u2019s planned flying hours.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. C.Q. Brown has already signaled that the service may be willing to cut the F-35A program of record and buy a less expensive <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/air\/2021\/02\/18\/the-air-force-is-interested-in-buying-a-budget-conscious-clean-sheet-fighter-to-replace-the-f-16\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cfourth-gen plus\u201d fighter <\/a>to replace some of its oldest F-16s, which were originally slated to be replaced by the F-35.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The F-35 program is expected to cost taxpayers a total of $1.7 trillion across its lifecycle, according to the Pentagon\u2019s Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation office\u2019s 2020 estimate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sustainment activities \u2014 which include maintaining the jet, the manpower needed to support the aircraft, fuel and training munitions costs, support equipment, certain costs associated with training, and other expenses \u2014 make up a whopping $1.3 trillion of F-35 lifecycle costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The $1.3 trillion sustainment estimate reflects an increase of more than $150 billion since the program was re-baselined in 2012, and there are signs sustainment expenses could continue to grow, the GAO said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/smr\/air-force-priorities\/2021\/02\/24\/lockheed-has-a-new-f-35-sustainment-proposal-for-the-pentagon-aimed-at-improving-readiness\/\" target=\"_blank\">sustainment cost problem<\/a> overwhelmingly hurts the Air Force, the single largest F-35 customer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe Air Force needs to reduce estimated costs per tail per year by $3.7 million (or 47 percent) by 2036 or it will incur $4.4 billion in costs beyond what it currently projects it could afford in that year alone,\u201d the GAO stated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Marine Corps \u2014 which operates both the F-35B short takeoff and landing variant and F-35C carrier variant \u2014 needs to push down F-35B cost per tail by 26 percent and F-35C cost per tail by 14 percent, or by 2036 will risk incurring about $900 million more than it can afford.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meanwhile, the GAO calculated that the Navy will need to reduce sustainment costs by 24 percent to meet affordability targets, or it will pay an additional $655 million in 2036.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The stakeholders of the F-35 program\u2014which include the F-35 joint program office, the services and prime contractor Lockheed Martin \u2014 have \u201cunique and differing perspectives on affordability,\u201d which ultimately make it difficult to develop a shared plan for cutting sustainment costs, the GAO said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For example, Air Force officials have noted that, even if it could somehow obtain all spare parts for its F-35 fleet for free, F-35 sustainment costs would still exceed affordability targets by 14 percent. Further, officials told the GAO that there is \u201clittle room left for the program to make significant sustainment-related cost reductions\u201d because its design and maintenance plan have already been set in stone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the other services, the situation is less dire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Navy officials believe current cost-cutting initiatives will eventually bear fruit and resolve affordability problems, while the Marine Corps stated that while affordability issues could arise in the future, the service plans to address them further down the road, the GAO stated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Officials from the Pentagon\u2019s acquisition and sustainment office noted that the F-35 program could cut sustainment costs by transitioning additional contractor-performed maintenance to military maintenance personnel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meanwhile, other stakeholders \u2014 such as the F-35 joint program office \u2014 told the GAO that service requirements like number of aircraft, flight hours per year, and mission capable rate make it difficult to bring down the cost of sustaining the aircraft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/industry\/2021\/06\/14\/lockheed-says-global-demand-for-f-35-remains-strong-despite-uncertainty-over-us-air-force-plans\/\" target=\"_blank\">Lockheed Martin officials <\/a>have also sought for the services to decrease manpower costs, which according to CAPE\u2019s 2020 estimate make up about 53 percent of the total sustainment costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Both lawmakers and the Defense Department have a chance to mandate further cost reductions as part of the upcoming Milestone C full-rate production decision, which could occur sometime before 2023, the GAO said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cTaking program-wide strategic actions to achieve the services\u2019 affordability constraints prior to Milestone C declaration would better position DOD and the services to take the necessary steps to arrest the increasing sustainment costs of the F-35 and plot an affordable direction for sustaining the F-35 program,\u201d the GAO said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cSuch an approach would entail assessing cost-savings initiatives, assessing the impact of potential changes in program requirements, developing and documenting a program-wide plan for achieving affordability constraints with detailed actions tied to milestones and resources, and developing and documenting a risk-management approach for addressing potential challenges or making adjustments to achieving affordability objectives.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sustainment costs have become an albatross for the F-35 program over the past several years, and several lawmakers have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/air\/2021\/04\/22\/dont-expect-more-money-for-additional-f-35s-in-fy22-lawmakers-tell-an-embattled-lockheed\/\" target=\"_blank\">put pressure on program officials<\/a> to decrease them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThere\u2019s no question that everyone involved \u2015 certainly Lockheed Martin \u2015 could be doing a better job on getting sustainment costs down,\u201d said House Armed Services Committee chairman Adam Smith, D-Wash., <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/congress\/2021\/06\/29\/smith-slams-f-35-lifecycle-costs-in-latest-salvo\/\" target=\"_blank\">during a roundtable with reporters<\/a> last month. \u201cThe sustainment costs \u2015 and it varies, I understand they\u2019re as high as $38,000 an hour, and that is incredibly expensive \u2015 it\u2019ll make the plane so that you don\u2019t really want to operate it any more than you absolutely have to.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By 2036, F-35 sustainment costs could exceed the U.S. military&#8217;s affordability parameters by $6 billion per year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":52059,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":7,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":{"2":{"categories":["your-military","news","left-column","home"],"primary_category":"your-military"},"4":{"categories":["your-air-force","news","daily-news-roundup","newsletters","left-column","home"],"primary_category":"your-air-force"},"6":{"categories":["your-marine-corps","news","daily-news-roundup","newsletters","middle-column","home"],"primary_category":"your-marine-corps"},"7":{"categories":["your-navy","news","daily-news-roundup","newsletters","left-column","home"],"primary_category":"your-navy"}}},"categories":[7,44,8,160,36,19],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3384],"class_list":["post-24286","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-air","category-budget","category-congress","category-daily-news-roundup","category-newsletters","category-pentagon"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"EFUAYRMPTBAOVCDSOFAUXNZZ2M","arc_canonical_url":"\/air\/2021\/07\/07\/watchdog-group-finds-f-35-sustainment-costs-could-be-headed-off-affordability-cliff\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Watchdog group finds F-35 sustainment costs could be headed off affordability cliff - Defense News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By 2036, F-35 sustainment costs could exceed the U.S. military&#039;s affordability parameters by $6 billion per year.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Watchdog group finds F-35 sustainment costs could be headed off affordability cliff\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By 2036, F-35 sustainment costs could exceed the U.S. military&#039;s affordability parameters by $6 billion per year.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" 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