{"id":24815,"date":"2021-02-15T15:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-02-15T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2021\/02\/15\/what-will-a-new-us-policy-on-yemen-mean-for-saudi-relations\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:09:07","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T22:09:07","slug":"what-will-a-new-us-policy-on-yemen-mean-for-saudi-relations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/global\/mideast-africa\/2021\/02\/15\/what-will-a-new-us-policy-on-yemen-mean-for-saudi-relations\/","title":{"rendered":"What will a new US policy on Yemen mean for Saudi relations?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WASHINGTON \u2014 America\u2019s recent freeze<\/a> on the sale of approved munitions to Saudi Arabia, along with a new policy curtailing U.S. involvement in the conflict in Yemen, is setting up an early test of the relationship between Riyadh and President Joe Biden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The policy, announced Feb. 4, comes amid a wide-ranging review of the Trump<\/a> administration\u2019s arms sales, which is expected to focus particularly on sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe are ending all American support for offensive operations in the war in Yemen, including relevant arms sales,\u201d Biden said. \u201cAt the same time, Saudi Arabia faces missile attacks, UAV strikes and other threats from Iranian-supplied forces in multiple countries. We\u2019re going to continue to support and help Saudi Arabia defend its sovereignty and its territorial integrity and its people.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the broader arms sales review continues, two specific cases tied to Saudi operations in Yemen are frozen, according to two sources familiar with the matter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first is a Foreign Military Sales case<\/a> for 3,000 Boeing-made GBU-39 small diameter bombs, approved in late December, with an estimated price tag of $290 million. The second is a Direct Commercial Sale case for Raytheon Technologies munitions, likely the reported<\/a> $478 million sale of 7,000 Paveway IV smart bombs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Raytheon CEO Greg Hayes foreshadowed the move in a Jan. 26 investor call, when he said the company would back off an \u201coffensive weapon system\u201d sale to an unnamed Middle Eastern customer because it did not believe the new administration would approve it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
An F-35 jet conducts a weapons separation test of the Paveway IV precision-guided bomb. (Courtesy of the U.S. Defense Department)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

While more Saudi weapons sales may be paused or canceled in the future, even targeting the two munitions packages is a sharp reversal from the Trump administration, which had a publicly positive relationship with Riyadh on arms sales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When Congress in 2019 slowed the sale of munitions to Saudi Arabia over concerns with the Yemen campaign, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo bucked the congressional arms sale review process. Lawmakers failed<\/a> to block the sale, but the episode increased ire toward Saudi Arabia among Democrats, including New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez<\/a>, now the powerful chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That relationship continued into the waning days of the Trump administration. Then 10 days before Biden took office, Anthony Tata, a close Trump supporter serving as acting undersecretary of defense for policy, traveled to Riyadh and signed what the Pentagon described as a \u201cDefense Cooperation Plan that solidifies new and existing areas of cooperation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Pentagon spokesperson declined to provide details of that plan, citing its classified nature, but confirmed the agreement remains in place. The Saudi Embassy in Washington did not respond to a similar request for comment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under Biden, arms sales to Saudi Arabia will return to the traditional arms sale oversight process, a White House spokesperson said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAll arms sales to Saudi Arabia will return to standard procedures and orders including with appropriate legal reviews at the State Department,\u201d the spokesperson said. \u201cWe have reestablished an interagency process for working through the details of individual cases, led by the White House and with all relevant agencies at the table, bringing expertise, discipline, and inclusivity back to our policymaking on these issues.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The head of U.S. Central Command, Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, downplayed any damage to the \u201clong-term relationship\u201d with Riyadh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNothing that we did, nothing that has been said or done means we\u2019re not going to continue to engage Saudi and our other coalition partners. Our focus there is going to be to do things that will help them defend themselves more effectively and efficiently,\u201d McKenzie said Feb. 8.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The military officer cited Iran as a \u201ccommon threat\u201d to both the U.S. and the kingdom, highlighting a 2019 drone attack on a Saudi oil field, which the U.S. attributed to Iran, as proof that the Iranian \u201cthreat is very real, and anything we can do to assist the Saudis in getting better and more effective at defending against that attack is good for them and good for us as well.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CENTCOM will \u201cmove out smartly to comply\u201d with the Biden administration\u2019s new direction, but the Yemen guidance allows for the U.S. to continue to support Saudi territorial defense, even if it curtails support for offensive operations, McKenzie emphasized.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Soldiers with a military coalition in Yemen backed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates stand guard at a facility of Yemen’s Red sea mills company in the port city of Hodeida on January 22, 2019. (Photo by Saleh Al-OBEIDI \/ AFP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOver the last several weeks, a number of attacks have been launched out of Yemen against Saudi Arabia. We will help the Saudis defend against those attacks by giving them intelligence when we can about those attacks. What we will not do is help them strike and continue to conduct offensive operations into Yemen,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An exemption for defensive capabilities likely includes the Raytheon-made Patriot missile batteries at Prince Sultan Air Base, southeast of Riyadh, as well as the Lockheed Martin- and Raytheon-made Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, systems, said former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Joseph Westphal, who served under President Barack Obama.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cHalting offensive weapons to the fighting in Yemen was predictable in the sense that Obama did it at the end of his administration,\u201d Westphal said. \u201cIf anything, [Riyadh] may have been taken by surprise at [Biden\u2019s] strong support for defending the sovereignty and the waters of Saudi Arabia.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Westphal noted that the Obama administration brokered the deal to sell Saudi Arabia THAAD batteries, adding: \u201cThe ballistic missile threat from Iran is big and real, and that\u2019s a system that I think we all felt was appropriate for them to have.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strategic partners with benefits<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The joint focus on Iran is one of several reasons why a real decoupling between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia is unlikely, said Becca Wasser, a regional expert with the Center for a New American Security. But that doesn\u2019t mean Riyadh will quietly accept the White House\u2019s policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere\u2019s going to be an uproar in Riyadh, and to folks in Saudi Arabia this is going to seem as though it\u2019s a huge affront \u2014 but also an indicator that Washington cannot be trusted to fulfill its promises,\u201d she predicted. \u201cIt\u2019s going to be viewed as a degradation of the U.S.-Saudi relationship, but also the U.S. commitment to Saudi Arabian security. And that is probably going to have knock-on effects for a variety of different priorities for the Biden administration\u201d in the region, particularly as it considers reviving the Iran nuclear deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the likelihood of public posturing from both sides to come, Wasser called the actual impact of the Yemen policy a \u201csymbolic move,\u201d given that U.S. assistance for the Yemen campaign has been largely restricted to intelligence sharing. However, it could drive Saudi Arabia to look to the U.S. less for munitions and more for defensive capabilities, such as increased missile defense assets, she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During previous periods of tension, Saudi Arabia restricted access to its bases or airspace, something vital to American operations in the region, Wasser noted. The kingdom could also respond to America\u2019s cold shoulder by making public overtures toward China and Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Proponents of U.S.-Saudi relations in the defense industry and elsewhere argue that removing the U.S. as a military industrial partner will simply pave the way for other nations to tighten ties through military trade. McKenzie echoed those concerns in his Feb. 8 comments, saying Russia seeks to \u201cchallenge\u201d the U.S. in the region by selling arms without American restrictions, and that China wants to \u201ccontinue to strengthen defense cooperation throughout the region.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe [the United States] were working with them [the Saudi military] to make sure they reduced their collateral damage. Is that training going to be cut off? The more you pull back, the more chances they\u2019re going to make it worse,\u201d according to a former senior U.S. military official with knowledge of the situation. \u201cThey\u2019re either going to go to another country to buy [precision-guided munitions] or use the dumb bombs they have, which increases the chances of collateral damage in civilian casualties.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not everyone agrees that Saudi leaders will react negatively. Westphal said that because Saudi Arabia values its energy sector and economic ties with the U.S., it likely won\u2019t turn to Russia and China for support in the Yemen war, instead accepting Biden\u2019s entreaties to end it diplomatically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI don\u2019t think it makes sense for them to buy all sorts of weapons to continue a war that\u2019s going to further damage the relationship with us, and Europe. So I think their focus will be on finding a way out of this,\u201d Westphal said. \u201cIn my conversations with [Saudi Crown Prince] Mohammed bin Salman, he always said we\u2019ve got to end this war: It\u2019s not only costing us a lot financially, but it\u2019s costing us in public relations. Those are his words, not mine.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"President
President Joe Biden speaks at the Pentagon, Wednesday, Feb. 10, 2021, in Washington. (Alex Brandon\/Pool via AP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Likewise, Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., a longtime critic of the U.S. and Saudi roles in the Yemen civil war, said at a Jan. 2 event that the U.S. should \u201cde-securitize\u201d its partnerships in the Mideast \u2014 and press Riyadh to both make peace in Yemen and improve human rights for Saudis. If Middle Eastern partners suggest they will buy arms elsewhere, \u201cwe should sort of call their bluff,\u201d Murphy said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere\u2019s still no substitute for the United States as a security partner,\u201d the lawmaker added. \u201cThe Chinese really don\u2019t want to get their hands that dirty in the security contests of the Middle East. The Russian stuff they sell is not comparable to the stuff we sell. We can draw a firmer line when it comes to what we expect from our partners in the region for a security partnership with the United States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wasser agreed that the industrial arguments should be taken with a \u201cgrain of salt,\u201d given how important the Saudis see the security relationship with the U.S. And ultimately, she said, both sides will likely get back to something resembling business as it was before the Trump era.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere are longstanding operational benefits to maintaining a fairly robust security cooperation relationship with Saudi Arabia,\u201d Wasser said, \u201cand I think those operational needs will win out in the long run.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia will not be as cozy under a Biden administration as the Trump administration, but how much will 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