{"id":26045,"date":"2018-08-30T19:24:05","date_gmt":"2018-08-30T19:24:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2018\/08\/30\/rand-study-lengthy-operations-grinding-down-air-force\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T20:53:45","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T20:53:45","slug":"rand-study-lengthy-operations-grinding-down-air-force","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/air\/2018\/08\/30\/rand-study-lengthy-operations-grinding-down-air-force\/","title":{"rendered":"Lengthy operations are grinding down the Air Force, according to Rand report"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A new study sounds the alarm over the longer missions the Air Force has conducted overseas since the Cold War \u2014 and warns that the service won\u2019t be able to fully do any of the jobs that may be asked of it in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Top Air Force leaders<\/a> have been expressing concern for some time<\/a> about the pace of operations<\/a> and the size of the force. But the Rand Corp. report \u2014 \u201cIs the USAF Flying Force Large Enough?\u201d<\/a> \u2014 attempts to specifically identify how bad the problem is and where the danger areas lie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study aims to help the Air Force “develop planning tools to test the robustness of the flying force against a range of possible future demands.\u201d It does so by estimating future fixed demands on Air Force aircraft, by missions such as homeland air defense, then predicting possible additional demands that might be placed on those aircraft, relying on historical data dating back to 1946.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report outlines four different scenarios the Air Force most likely would encounter: a Cold War-type situation with a long regional conflict like the Korean or Vietnam wars; a Cold War situation with a short regional conflict like Operation Desert Storm; a peacetime environment, perhaps to include a no-fly zone; and a counterterrorism or counterinsurgency conflict similar to the current operations going on in the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In all four of those scenarios, the Air Force would see significant shortfalls in multiple areas, according to Rand. For example, during a long regional conflict, the Air Force would only be able to field about half of the C3ISR\/BM \u2014 or command, control, communications, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance and battle management \u2014 as well as special operations aircraft necessary, and less than two-thirds of the airlift and attack aircraft necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even a peacetime environment, which historically has included lengthy no-fly zones in places like the Balkans and Middle East, would seriously tap the Air Force\u2019s ISR, special operations, tanker, bomber, fighter and attack aircraft capabilities, the report said.<\/p>\n\n\n\t