{"id":26364,"date":"2017-10-24T15:02:10","date_gmt":"2017-10-24T15:02:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2017\/10\/24\/could-japans-snap-election-results-open-the-door-for-a-stronger-security-stance\/"},"modified":"2026-08-20T16:07:55","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T16:07:55","slug":"could-japans-snap-election-results-open-the-door-for-a-stronger-security-stance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/global\/asia-pacific\/2017\/10\/24\/could-japans-snap-election-results-open-the-door-for-a-stronger-security-stance\/","title":{"rendered":"Could Japan’s snap election results open the door for a stronger security stance?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Officials of the election administration committee count ballot papers for Japan’s general election at an election office in Tokyo on Oct. 22, 2017. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe swept to a resounding victory in a snap election that day, winning a mandate to harden his already hawkish stance on North Korea. (Kazuhiro Nogi\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

MELBOURNE, Australia \u2015 Japan\u2019s prime minister has secured a strong mandate at the country\u2019s snap general election over the weekend, setting the stage for potential constitutional revisions that will cement a more proactive security stance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That said, most expect such revisions to be an upward battle. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Final results of the election, which has been slightly delayed by a typhoon making its way along the east coast of the northeast Asian country, put the coalition of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe\u2019s Liberal Democratic Party, or LDP, and junior partner Komeito at 312 seats in Japan\u2019s 465-seat lower house.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is lower than the coalition\u2019s current total of 326, but still higher than the 311 it needs to form a supermajority. It also all but ensures Abe is set to secure a third term as president of the LDP in a leadership contest next September, which will make him Japan\u2019s longest-serving prime minister. Corey Wallace, an Einstein postdoctoral fellow in the Graduate School of East Asian Studies at Freie Universitat in Berlin, Germany, says that fact would be good for continuity in Japan\u2019s security policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The result also leaves Abe in a potentially better position to push for his longtime goal of revising Japan\u2019s pacifist constitution to be more assertive on the security front. This would require Abe to work together with other pro-revision opposition parties, as coalition partner Komeito has been reluctant to agree to revise the pacifist aspects of Article 9 of the constitution, Japan\u2019s renunciation of war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wallace argues, however, that sidelining Komeito in favor of the more hawkish parties on constitutional change could be \u201csuicidal\u201d given the LDP depends on Komeito for electoral success by way of mutual coordination in electoral districts. Add to this the expected public backlash over what may be seen as overly drastic and assertive changes in Japan\u2019s defense posture and that this issue may be fraught with political danger for the government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agreeing, Tokyo-based defense watcher James Simpson also cautioned against thinking Abe\u2019s victory is a mandate for revision, telling Defense News by email that Abe\u2019s electoral win \u201cis probably owed to the self-destruction of the primary opposition party (the Democratic Party of Japan) and fracturing of the opposition as a whole, along with the little time they\u2019ve to create public support ahead of the election.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He added that it was difficult to conclude that the Japanese public went to the polls to hand the LDP a mandate for revision; polling actually showed that the Japanese public was \u201cstill generally divided on the issue, as they are on Abe\u2019s primary economic strategy,\u201d with Wallace adding that \u201cthe public either doesn\u2019t see the point of change or trust Abe\u2019s intentions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This was despite the Abe administration trying to pitch the election as seeking a mandate to \u201cdeal with North Korea,\u201d which Simpson says has \u201clong been the pretext for reversion to standard military traditions and missions, and for constitutional revision in general.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another change that may result from this election is that there could be a renewed push for Japan to acquire what it has termed \u201ccounterstrike capabilities\u201d to enable it to strike North Korea\u2019s missiles. This is actually allowed under the existing constitutional framework, although previous Japanese governments have been unwilling to push for these capabilities lest it be seen as overly aggressive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite public skepticism, it\u2019s expected Abe will continue to pursue his longstanding goals of normalizing Japan\u2019s military within its constitution, with the specifics of the LDP\u2019s constitutional revision plans likely to be presented to the parliament and the public by mid-2018. Abe has also pledged a referendum on the issue following the unveiling of the details of the proposed changes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The stage is set in Japan for potential constitutional revisions that will cement a more proactive security 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