{"id":26925,"date":"2020-05-12T09:00:24","date_gmt":"2020-05-12T09:00:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2020\/05\/12\/whats-preventing-a-respite-from-the-broken-us-russia-relationship\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:24:19","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T22:24:19","slug":"whats-preventing-a-respite-from-the-broken-us-russia-relationship","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/commentary\/2020\/05\/12\/whats-preventing-a-respite-from-the-broken-us-russia-relationship\/","title":{"rendered":"What\u2019s preventing a respite from the broken US-Russia relationship?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rumblings of U.S.-Russia rapprochement hit like a bolt out of the blue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In addition to a rare <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/briefings-statements\/joint-statement-president-donald-j-trump-president-vladimir-putin-russia-commemorating-75th-anniversary-meeting-elbe\/\" target=\"_blank\">joint statement<\/a> issued a couple weeks ago, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin connected numerous times over the past several weeks according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2020\/04\/18\/politics\/trump-putin-unprecedented-contacts\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">public reports<\/a>. These developments stand out \u2014 not because any non-coronavirus news feels like a rarity, but because ties between Moscow and Washington have long been frozen in place. It is even more surprising given the Kremlin\u2019s continued actions in places like Syria and Ukraine. The dual challenge of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-oil-opec-trump-putin\/putin-and-trump-agree-oil-market-situation-suits-neither-kremlin-idUSKBN21I1PS\" target=\"_blank\">oil market crash<\/a> and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/coronavirus\/\" target=\"_blank\">COVID-19 crisis<\/a>, however, seem to have momentarily altered the equation in U.S.-Russia relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s worth reiterating that a clear U.S. policy toward Russia has been virtually nonexistent in recent years. Since the start of the Trump administration, the president has tended to flatter his Russian counterpart, while the rest of his bureaucracy pursues a harder line toward Moscow. This dissonance, which obfuscates an overarching strategy, has grown more puzzling over the past weeks. And the tension it produces in U.S. policy was evident even in decisions like the statement issued on the &#8220;Spirit of the Elbe.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A path to more constructive relations with Russia is certainly important for U.S. national security, but it cannot neglect what Russia has done in places like Georgia, Ukraine and Syria. Here, the gap between President Trump\u2019s words and actual U.S. policy are a cause for concern. The president remains out of step with many parts of his own government (or vice versa), in turn giving Putin the space to exploit his personal connection with Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<aside class=\"smg-interstitial-link wp-block-smg-interstitial-link\">\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/militarytimes\/flashpoints\/2020\/04\/23\/recent-tensions-with-americas-foes-are-nothing-new-but-covid-19-could-cause-miscalculation-and-conflict\/\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" src=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/America.JPG.jpg?w=300\" class=\"smg-interstitial-link__image wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"smg-interstitial-link__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"smg-interstitial-link__kicker\">Related<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"smg-interstitial-link__title\">COVID-19 may increase risk of miscalculation and conflict with traditional adversaries<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"smg-interstitial-link__excerpt\">\u201cTo those who wish us harm, make no mistake: even with the challenges that this disease has brought to our shores, the Department of Defense stands ready to meet any threat and defend our nation.\u201d<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cooperation is imperative during the present moment of dislocation and danger across the international community. But using current crises as a pretext to fundamentally reset relations is short-sighted; it also won\u2019t likely work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There has been no alteration in Russia\u2019s foreign policy behavior. Even if Moscow\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/policy\/international\/490820-us-welcomes-russian-delivery-of-medical-supplies-to-new-york\" target=_blank>shipment<\/a> of medical materials to the U.S. was a symbol of goodwill and not just a propaganda play, it at least represented a \u201cmisguided attempt to use the crisis as some kind of a factor that allows you to clean the slate in the relationship,\u201d as a senior analyst in Russia <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=4VUFRhy4tWE&#038;feature=youtu.be&#038;t=1845\" target=_blank>characterized<\/a> it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We need to find ways to build confidence in the relationship, but they need to be embedded in a broader strategy. And rather than resets, any goodwill accumulated through the current crises should be channeled into discreet, achievable policy goals. Considering Putin\u2019s interest in nuclear policy issues and U.S. concerns about Russia\u2019s threat to allies in Europe, arms control is a natural starting point for such a rapprochement. However, three main challenges hinder any headway and must be somehow addressed if progress is to be made.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First, the Trump administration is demanding that any future agreement on strategic arms control (or even intermediate forces) include China. This is because the U.S. does not want to be hamstrung by an agreement that could be detrimental to its strategy in Asia. Beijing has repeatedly rejected such invitations, effectively stalling serious arms control discussions between Moscow and Washington as well. Moreover, Moscow does not want to push Beijing on the topic either. As the expiration of New START looms, this key agreement fostering transparency and limiting the number of strategic nuclear weapons in the U.S. and Russia is likely to end, absent new life in the discussion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Second, the U.S. is broadly exhibiting a healthy dose of skepticism about these types of agreements with Moscow, catalyzed by a lack of trust that Russia will comply. Moscow\u2019s consistent disregard for the existing agreements that underpin Euro-Atlantic security (e.g., the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, the Budapest Memorandum and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty) makes it seem unlikely that Russia will abide by a new agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lastly, as U.S.-Russia relations further deteriorate, the nuclear domain has become yet another area for confrontation. Rather than strategic stability being a point of convergence \u2014 as it once was \u2014 it is increasingly becoming a space for saber-rattling and conflict. Moscow\u2019s vibrato around <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/global\/the-americas\/2020\/04\/17\/russia-shows-willingness-to-include-new-nuke-hypersonic-weapon-in-arms-control-pact\/\" target=_blank>hypersonics<\/a> is a good example. And the U.S. is aggressively pushing back. The 2018 U.S. Nuclear Posture Review outlined plans to develop and deploy tactical nuclear weapon capabilities to counter Russian capabilities, and reiterated the option of using nuclear weapons in a non-nuclear scenario. This \u2014 alongside other technological developments \u2014 signals a significant departure from any common view of strategic stability, with detrimental implications for European security, as a colleague and I <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gmfus.org\/publications\/strategic-spiral-arms-control-us-russian-relations-and-european-security\" target=_blank>recently analyzed<\/a> at length.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since 2000, several administrations failed to find a way to create a lasting change in U.S.-Russia relations \u2014 one that delivers a constructive agenda while keeping Putin\u2019s more aggressive and exploitative efforts in check. But understanding that the relationship is defined by competition, not cooperation, may at least provide an avenue for limited successes of mutual interest. Successful confidence-building measures during the Cold War were in the context of extremely tense relations; it is possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the present crises, any political progress in relations should be directed to energize specific policy goals, like arms control. Achievements won\u2019t \u201cclean the slate\u201d or create a pretext for a broad reset, but it may provide a path to greater confidence-building measures in the future to tackle more difficult issues. This ultimately may result in a less ambitions U.S.-Russia agenda, but it is likely to be the most successful. Most importantly, it will be a strategy based in current realities, not wishful thinking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i>Steven Keil is a fellow at the German Marshall Fund, where he specializes in security and defense policy, as well as the future of geopolitics.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Arms control is a natural starting point for U.S.-Russia rapprochement. However, three main challenges hinder any headway.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":46712,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":66,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[66,160,36,17],"tags":[],"coauthors":[4381],"class_list":["post-26925","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-daily-news-roundup","category-newsletters","category-opinion"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"ENPCVXFV4RHN3GBBAVS6KI3FSM","arc_canonical_url":"\/opinion\/commentary\/2020\/05\/12\/whats-preventing-a-respite-from-the-broken-us-russia-relationship\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented By:"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What\u2019s preventing a respite from the broken US-Russia relationship? - Defense News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Arms control is a natural starting point for U.S.-Russia rapprochement. 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