{"id":28026,"date":"2022-05-06T19:29:04","date_gmt":"2022-05-06T19:29:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2022\/05\/06\/after-ukraine-invasion-is-us-deterrence-strategy-already-outdated\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:19:06","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T22:19:06","slug":"after-ukraine-invasion-is-us-deterrence-strategy-already-outdated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/pentagon\/2022\/05\/06\/after-ukraine-invasion-is-us-deterrence-strategy-already-outdated\/","title":{"rendered":"After Ukraine invasion, is U.S. deterrence strategy already outdated?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">WASHINGTON \u2014 Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks on Friday defended the Biden administration\u2019s strategy of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/congress\/2022\/03\/03\/congressman-argues-us-deterrence-strategy-failed-to-protect-ukraine-and-could-fail-taiwan-too\/?msclkid=6f386acccd6b11ec88b8b378f35f35ce\" target=\"_blank\">integrated deterrence<\/a> against adversaries such as Russia, despite its invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Russia has not yet felt the full effect of the economic sanctions much of the world imposed shortly after the country launched its invasion in February, Hicks said at a Ronald Reagan Institute event discussing the National Defense Strategy. And Russia has not struck any NATO territory, she said as an example of how deterrence has worked in the Ukraine crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Integrated deterrence is a cornerstone of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/pentagon\/2022\/03\/29\/russia-first-in-the-headlines-is-pentagons-no-2-challenge\/\" target=\"_blank\">National Defense Strategy<\/a> the administration sent to Congress in March, and seeks to dissuade adversaries from acting aggressively by using a wide range of tools available to the government. Those tools include joint military forces in all domains, a nuclear deterrent, sanctions, diplomacy, and a network of alliances and partnerships worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The classified strategy has not been shared with the public, except for a <a href=\"https:\/\/media.defense.gov\/2022\/Mar\/28\/2002964702\/-1\/-1\/1\/NDS-FACT-SHEET.PDF\" target=\"_blank\">two-page summary<\/a> the Pentagon released outlining its broad strokes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But though the U.S. and allies loudly and repeatedly warned Russian President Vladimir Putin not to invade Ukraine, those warnings did not dissuade him, Reagan Institute director Roger Zakheim pointed out to Hicks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt\u2019s reasonable to say that deterrence didn\u2019t work,\u201d Zakheim said. \u201cWe anticipated this. \u2026 We tried to put the tools of deterrence into place. [But] we didn\u2019t deter him.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hicks responded that the Defense Department focuses on \u201ccombat credibility\u201d to provide a deterrent. The United States does not have the same security commitments with Ukraine it does with NATO allies, she said. The U.S. also has not historically provided to Ukraine the kind of military assistance it provides to Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWhat we focus on in the Department of Defense is bringing that combat credibility to the fore,\u201d Hicks said. \u201cNote that Russians have not attacked NATO territory. And we continue to stand by that deterrent as quite effective.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hicks also said the massive economic sanctions imposed on Russia will prove to be \u201ctremendously powerful.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThey clearly were not convincing to Russia in advance,\u201d Hicks said. \u201cIt\u2019s not clear anything would have been convincing to Russia in advance; I\u2019m not going to try to get into the head of [Russian President] Vladimir Putin. But what I can tell you is they will be devastated.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Russia is facing a massive drain in talent as businesses exit and highly skilled people depart the nation, Hicks said. She hopes those talented people will come to the United States or other Western nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hicks also said the National Security Strategy will likely come \u201cin the coming months.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a roundtable discussion after Hicks\u2019 appearance, Rep. Elaine Luria, D-Va., said the U.S. needs to shift its deterrence focus to trying to deny adversaries from acting in the first place, which she referred to as \u201cdeterrence by denial,\u201d and away from the \u201cdeterrence by punishment\u201d strategy she feels describes integrated deterrence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And to be able to field an effective \u201cdeterrence by denial\u201d strategy, Luria said, the U.S. needs to have the forces and presence overseas to make it credible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The U.S. may not be building a force that can do that over the next couple of years, she added. Luria raised particular concerns about military plans to divest existing assets to free up resources to modernize.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cRather than being creative, investing in the readiness and maintaining those platforms that we have now, that we can continue to use during that [near-term] window, we\u2019re just saying \u2018divest to invest,\u2019\u201d Luria said. \u201cIt\u2019s obsolete, we need to move on to new concepts that don\u2019t actually equal new weapon systems that exist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cAI, quantum computing \u2014 certainly those are part of the mix in the future,\u201d Luria continued. \u201cBut we have to focus on the near term.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mich\u00e8le Flournoy, who served as undersecretary of defense for policy in the Obama administration, said deterring China from invading Taiwan \u2014 an attack that would involve large numbers of quickly attacking Chinese ships and aircraft \u2014 could require more than just counting how many traditional platforms such as destroyers are in the U.S. arsenal. It may require different concepts of operations, she said, such as arming standoff Air Force planes with Long-Range Anti-Ship Missiles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The U.S. also needs to address munitions shortfalls now being exacerbated by the need to provide assistance to Ukraine, she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cServices constantly trade off munitions to pay for shiny objects,\u201d Flournoy said. \u201cWe\u2019ve got to focus here.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Luria said the nation needs to reassess the policy of \u201cstrategic ambiguity\u201d that has for years governed the United States\u2019 commitment to helping Taiwan defend itself if China were to invade. Luria said the U.S. should shift to \u201cstrategic clarity\u201d and explicitly say it will come to Taiwan\u2019s defense in an invasion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mac Thornberry, former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, suggested Putin may have been considering issues besides raw military strength when he decided to invade Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cYou can argue that perhaps Putin \u2026 was [also] looking at our divisions domestically, and a whole variety of factors, and thought maybe this is a time when he could get away with it,\u201d Thornberry said. \u201cRemember, deterrence is in the mind of the adversary.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Economic sanctions \u201cclearly were not convincing to Russia in advance,\u201d Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks said. \u201cIt\u2019s not clear anything would have been convincing to Russia in advance; I\u2019m not going to try to get into the head of Vladimir Putin.&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":39290,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":0,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":{"2":{"categories":["pentagon-congress","news","left-column","home"],"primary_category":"pentagon-congress"},"4":{"categories":["pentagon-congress","news","daily-news-roundup","newsletters","middle-column","home"],"primary_category":"pentagon-congress"},"5":{"categories":["pentagon-congress","news","daily-news-roundup","newsletters","middle-column","home"],"primary_category":"pentagon-congress"},"6":{"categories":["pentagon-congress","news","daily-news-roundup","newsletters","middle-column","home"],"primary_category":"pentagon-congress"},"7":{"categories":["pentagon-congress","news","daily-news-roundup","newsletters","middle-column","home"],"primary_category":"pentagon-congress"}}},"categories":[160,32,36,19],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3412],"class_list":["post-28026","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news-roundup","category-disaster","category-newsletters","category-pentagon"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"FBC4AJTSWFHOPHYDVHXIUTQVOM","arc_canonical_url":"\/pentagon\/2022\/05\/06\/after-ukraine-invasion-is-us-deterrence-strategy-already-outdated\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented 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sanctions \u201cclearly were not convincing to Russia in advance,\u201d Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks said. \u201cIt\u2019s not clear anything would have been convincing to Russia in advance; I\u2019m not going to try to get into the head of Vladimir Putin.&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/pentagon\/2022\/05\/06\/after-ukraine-invasion-is-us-deterrence-strategy-already-outdated\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Defense News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-05-06T19:29:04+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-08-07T22:19:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Stephen Losey\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Stephen Losey\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" 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