{"id":30461,"date":"2022-03-04T18:36:39","date_gmt":"2022-03-04T18:36:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2022\/03\/04\/stunned-by-putins-war-nations-rewrite-their-playbooks-on-defense\/"},"modified":"2026-08-20T14:03:57","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T14:03:57","slug":"stunned-by-putins-war-nations-rewrite-their-playbooks-on-defense","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/global\/europe\/2022\/03\/04\/stunned-by-putins-war-nations-rewrite-their-playbooks-on-defense\/","title":{"rendered":"Stunned by Putin\u2019s war, nations rewrite their playbooks on defense"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">WASHINGTON \u2014 Western nations are beginning to channel the shock over Russia\u2019s military assault on Ukraine into a wholesale remake of their defense policies, deepening alliances and swelling budgets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The dynamics of the conflict have shifted in recent days as Moscow\u2019s forces gain the upper hand in some areas by their sheer overmatch in firepower, according to analysts. The humanitarian catastrophe caused by the destruction has left Ukrainian leaders pleading for more military help, a request NATO officials have said they can accommodate only indirectly and, increasingly, discreetly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With no end game in sight for the conflict, governments on both sides of the Atlantic are beginning to settle in for the long haul.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">U.S. President Joe Biden, in a March 2 address, seemed to be preparing the country for a lengthy period of tension, and the likelihood that Ukrainian forces may not hold out for much longer against Russia\u2019s conventional military might.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201c[Russian President Vladimir] Putin has unleashed violence and chaos,\u201d Biden said. \u201cBut while he may make gains on the battlefield, he will pay a continuing high price over the long run.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some European nations are now waking up to the fact that Russia is willing to use military force to redraw borders in their neighborhood, an idea still pooh-poohed in Western European circles even after Moscow\u2019s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The continent\u2019s defense scenario is shifting daily, said Alessandro Marrone, a defense analyst at the Rome-based think tank IAI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cA number of historical thresholds have been passed in recent weeks. The war in Ukraine will not be short, Germany\u2019s budget hike will have a huge impact on German and Europe\u2019s industry. And the [European Union\u2019s] \u20ac500 million [(U.S. $547 million)] spending on weapons for the war is a watershed in the relations with Russia,\u201d Marrone said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u2018A significant moment\u2019<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Heather Conley, president of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, said nations should quickly move past the realization the world\u2019s security order has irreversibly shifted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cNow we lean in with our allies and partners to make sure there\u2019s no rollback, to make sure they implement and they execute that,\u201d the think tank\u2019s leader said. \u201cIt\u2019s such a significant moment, but we can\u2019t bask in that moment; we have to lean in and get greater purpose and focus.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discussions have already begun in Germany about the practical implications of a defense budget that Chancellor Olaf Scholz said <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/global\/europe\/2022\/02\/27\/scholz-proposes-100-billion-euro-defense-fund-vows-to-exceed-nato-spending-goal\/\" target=\"_blank\">would rise beyond 2% of gross domestic product<\/a>, propped up by a $113 billion special fund to be disbursed over several years. NATO has set a target for its members to spend 2% of their respective GDP on defense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Analysis by the Berlin-based German Council on Foreign Relations found the extra money would yield \u201cno champagne,\u201d but only fill \u201cempty water glasses.\u201d The think tank said the backlog of underfunding Germany\u2019s military amounts to \u20ac90 billion over the past 30 years, according to slides posted on Twitter by analyst Christian M\u00f6lling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Once lawmakers approve the spending uptick, it remains to be seen if the German defense bureaucracy and its associated industries can actually convert the money into better readiness and modernized equipment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the United States, the discussion is similarly moving toward the question of how big future defense increases will be \u2014 not whether there will be one at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The next U.S. defense budget will now \u201chave to be bigger than we thought,\u201d according to Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., who is the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee and is typically a skeptic of enlarged Defense Department budgets. He said Capitol Hill is gripped by a new spirit of bipartisan cooperation to tackle the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cJust the Russian invasion in Ukraine fundamentally altered what our national security posture, what our defense posture needs to be,\u201d Smith said at an American Enterprise Institute event March 3. \u201cIt made it more complicated, and it made it more expensive. \u2026 The decision to invade Ukraine by Russia changes it, and it\u2019s going to go up. There\u2019s no doubt about it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While some leading Republicans are calling on Biden to pursue a defense budget increase for fiscal 2023 that exceeds inflation by 5%, Congress is meanwhile considering <a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/congress\/2022\/03\/03\/white-house-seeks-new-10b-ukraine-fund-with-half-for-pentagon\/\" target=\"_blank\">Biden\u2019s request<\/a> for an immediate $10 billion in Ukraine-focused defense and humanitarian spending. That\u2019s likely to be tacked onto a still-missing budget deal for FY22.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A hint to where new dollars could flow: Smith\u2019s Republican counterpart, Rep. Mike Rogers of Alabama, has encouraged Romania and the U.S. to cut a deal for American troops to be permanently stationed in the European country, and Pentagon officials acknowledge they must now revisit four-month-old force posture plans to consider the possibility of new permanent or rotational troop deployments to NATO nations in Eastern Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cPosture-wise, yes, we\u2019re going to need to do more in Eastern Europe,\u201d Smith said. \u201cI don\u2019t think we can forget about Asia because the presence does matter. So I think we\u2019re going to need to balance those two things.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Analysts and politicians have said Putin\u2019s war on Ukraine has galvanized the West like no event before. Germany\u2019s dramatic policy change on Russia is only the tip of the iceberg, as other nations previously hesitant about confronting Moscow realize the Kremlin cannot be acquiesced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Italy and France<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After years of lukewarm support for Russian sanctions, partly inspired by strong business ties with Moscow, Italy has done an about-face under the guidance of Prime Minister Mario Draghi and thrown its weight behind moves to punish Putin for his invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rome has joined other European nations in sending Stinger missiles and other weaponry to Kyiv, a move backed by politicians who previously voiced admiration for Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The change in viewpoint on Russia means Italy\u2019s political class is catching up with the country\u2019s military chiefs, who have been preparing for a high-end conflict in recent years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cUkraine has had a huge impact on the political level, which will give a political impetus to implement capability development, which is already being largely planned,\u201d said Marrone, the Italian defense analyst.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cNew submarines, corvettes and the [short-takeoff-and-vertical-landing] F-35 will help ensure maritime security, which will be strained in the Mediterranean,\u201d he said. \u201cItaly is also investing in new wheeled armored vehicles, although it has to decide on a next-generation main battle tank, also depending whether the French-German development will open to third parties.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Marrone does not expect a new iron curtain to descend on Europe, separating east from west. \u201cUkraine may remain in a kind of limbo, a place where conflict could flare up at any time,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In France, where presidential elections are up next month, the nation\u2019s foreign policy agenda and its approach to Russia are more relevant than ever before. All nine declared candidates have joined Macron in condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine, although they differ in assigning responsibility, analysts Mathilde Ciulla and Amandine Drouet noted in<a href=\"https:\/\/ecfr.eu\/article\/how-russias-war-on-ukraine-is-shaping-the-french-presidential-race\/\"><b> <\/b>a March 1 report for the European Council on Foreign Relations.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Macron, who has long supported robust French defense spending and<a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/global\/europe\/2021\/10\/10\/needed-a-transatlantic-agreement-on-european-strategic-autonomy\/\"><b> <\/b>advocated for European strategic autonomy,<\/a><b> <\/b>formally announced his decision to run for reelection on Thursday. He <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/europe-poll-of-polls\/france\/\">is currently leading the polls<\/a><b> <\/b>to win a second term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Geopolitical issues remain low on the list of French citizens\u2019 concerns, but the presidential campaign debate will allow the candidates to transform a foreign policy debate into a domestic one by presenting their views on different regimes, democracy and rule of law, Ciulla and Drouet wrote in an email to Defense News.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe invasion has forced candidates to clarify their position on Russia, and to give elements of what their diplomacy towards this neighbor would be, should they be elected president,\u201d they said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">France has sent helmets, bulletproof vests, demining equipment and first aid kits to Ukraine, per Armed Forces Ministry spokesman Herve Grandjean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">More defensive equipment is on the way, but the French government will not comment on what it is, citing security reasons, Grandjean told reporters Thursday. He also would not say whether the European Union\u2019s plan to provide \u20ac500 million worth of lethal and nonlethal aid to Ukraine would include French-made weapons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i>Sebastian Sprenger and Joe Gould reported from Washington. Vivienne Machi reported from Stuttgart, Germany. Tom Kington reported from Rome.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With no end game in sight for the conflict, governments on both sides of the Atlantic are beginning to settle in for the long haul.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":66459,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_acf":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":46,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_smg_distribution_targets":[]},"categories":[160,46,11,36,48],"tags":[8628],"coauthors":[3425,3446,3420,3345],"class_list":["post-30461","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news-roundup","category-europe","category-global","category-newsletters","category-the-americas","tag-ukraine"],"acf":{"subheadline":"","legacy_arc_id":"XHSGL77I4RCMXMAJQ6HOZ4VJ7E","arc_canonical_url":"\/global\/europe\/2022\/03\/04\/stunned-by-putins-war-nations-rewrite-their-playbooks-on-defense\/","remove_feature_photo":false,"is_sponsored":false,"subtype":"","redirect_url":"","disable_inline_ads":false,"native_logo_pretext":"Presented 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