{"id":30488,"date":"2022-03-14T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-03-14T13:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/uncategorized\/2022\/03\/14\/what-should-be-the-united-states-next-move-on-hypersonic-tech\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:31:32","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T22:31:32","slug":"what-should-be-the-united-states-next-move-on-hypersonic-tech","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/one.sightlinemg.com\/defensenews\/air\/2022\/03\/14\/what-should-be-the-united-states-next-move-on-hypersonic-tech\/","title":{"rendered":"What should be the United States\u2019 next move on hypersonic tech?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WASHINGTON \u2014 In early February, executives from more than a dozen defense firms gathered virtually<\/a> with top Pentagon leaders, including the department\u2019s secretary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At stake: the future of hypersonic weapons, one of the most hyped, debated and costly weapons initiatives in years. The government is expected to spend $15 billion on the effort between 2015 and 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But while they chewed over the obstacles of supply chains, acquisition and testing facilities, hovering in the background were high-profile Chinese advancements in the cutting-edge weapons, Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s boasts of his nation\u2019s progress on hypersonic technology and questions at home about whether the United States is on the right track.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Defense Department is at a critical moment on hypersonic technology. Now, a growing chorus of experts \u2014 including a service secretary \u2014 are urging the government to add resources for building an array of sensors, satellites and other technologies to improve America\u2019s ability to defend against hypersonic attacks, and to better hone its strategy for how it might use them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words: Is the United States approaching hypersonic technology from the right angle?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In recent months, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has repeatedly asked pointed questions about the purpose they should play in the U.S. arsenal and whether they\u2019re worth the considerable price tag.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe question is: Can you do the job with conventional missiles at less cost, just as effectively?\u201d Kendall said in a Feb. 15 panel with the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. \u201cHypersonics are a way to penetrate defenses, but they\u2019re not the only way.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hypersonic weapons can travel multiple times faster than the speed of sound \u2014 greater than Mach 5 \u2014 and can maneuver midflight. This makes them capable of penetrating defenses and much harder to track and shoot down than conventional ballistic missiles, which follow a predictable parabolic track. Both China and Russia have invested heavily into hypersonic research; look no further than Russia\u2019s Avangard, a long-range boost glide vehicle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
This comparison of ballistic and hypersonic flight trajectories illustrates how the latter is highly maneuverable and therefore more difficult to shoot down. (U.S. Government Accountability Office)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Army, Navy, Air Force and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency are working on hypersonic programs, some in cooperation with one another. These include the All Up Round, a joint Army and Navy program; the Air Force\u2019s AGM-183 Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon, or ARRW; and DARPA\u2019s Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept, which is under development in partnership with the Air Force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Top defense firms see growth opportunities in the hypersonic market, and are jockeying for position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hypersonic market was one of the drivers of Lockheed Martin\u2019s attempted $4.4 billion acquisition of Aerojet Rocketdyne, a maker of vital parts for scramjet engines that go into hypersonic missiles. Lockheed hoped acquiring Aerojet and its propulsion capabilities would allow it to integrate the tech into its broader engineering department and operate faster and more cheaply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Trade Commission responded with a lawsuit<\/a> in January, expressing concern the deal would lead to higher prices for hypersonic cruise missiles. The FTC\u2019s challenge ultimately scuttled the deal in February<\/a>, but Lockheed and the commission\u2019s disagreement illustrates the importance of the market to both industry and government regulators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At a February conference, Lockheed CEO Jim Taiclet noted the company\u2019s work on six hypersonic programs, including the ARRW, and called hypersonics a \u201cnational priority.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lockheed Chief Financial Officer Jay Malave said there\u2019s \u201cjust a lot of growth there.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s there, it\u2019s real, and we\u2019re a big player in that,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Northrop Grumman last year began construction on a 60,000-foot facility in Maryland to better design and produce hypersonic weapons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But particularly in recent months, Kendall has been a persistent voice of caution about how the U.S. should think about these weapons, and how the nation should respond to China\u2019s headline-grabbing advancements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Matching China?<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

One factor giving Kendall pause: What China might do with hypersonic technology isn\u2019t necessarily what the United States would want to do. As a result, he said, the U.S. doesn\u2019t need to match China\u2019s every move in the hypersonic realm \u2014 particularly given the weapons\u2019 high price tag.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt isn\u2019t obvious that just because China is doing hypersonics, so we should do, immediately, similar hypersonics,\u201d Kendall said Feb. 15.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One problem, Kendall explained, is current hypersonic technology tends to be best suited for striking fixed targets. \u201cOur job, fundamentally, is to deter and defeat aggression,\u201d he said. \u201cSomebody commits aggression when they move somewhere else, whether it\u2019s by ships across the straits of Taiwan or vehicles rolling into Ukraine. So we want weapons that can deal with moving targets.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Chinese military vehicles carrying DF-17 roll during a parade to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the founding of Communist China in Beijing, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2019. Military planners in Washington and elsewhere will be taking note of new missile technology displayed by China, particularly the hypersonic Dong Feng 17 or DF17 ballistic nuclear missile believed capable of breaching all existing anti-missile shields deployed by the U.S. and its allies. (AP Photo\/Ng Han Guan)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kendall recommends the U.S. examine potential targets and find the most cost-effective way to hit them; and in some cases, that might not involve a hypersonic weapon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The military also needs to consider cost, he added. The Government Accountability Office said in a report last year the government is likely to spend nearly $15 billion between 2015 and 2024 to develop hypersonic weapons across 70 different efforts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kendall is asking the right questions, said John Venable, a senior defense fellow at the Heritage Foundation. The weapons could cost anywhere from $50 million to $100 million apiece, he explained \u2014 though the hope is to get them down to $10 million a shot \u2014 and the military needs to consider what targets would justify using such an expensive munition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How China answers that question is likely to differ from the U.S., Venable said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf I was the Chinese, if I could sink the flattops while they\u2019re in harbor in Norfolk, [Virginia], or off the coast of California [as a surprise attack], then that would be a great munition to use,\u201d Venable said. \u201cAnything else, you\u2019ve got to sit back and wonder what\u2019s going to be the strategic impact of one of these rounds.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. wouldn\u2019t carry out that kind of a surprise attack, Venable said. And it wouldn\u2019t necessarily need hypersonic missiles to destroy one of China\u2019s capital ships, he added \u2014 stealth bombers, for example, could do that job.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a Feb. 15 email, the Air Force said it is using the results of war games, exercises and analyses, with the help of the Air Force Research Laboratory, the Air Force Life Cycle Management Center and the Air Force Futures office, to answer Kendall\u2019s questions. The Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, combatant commands and other organizations have provided their own observations and studies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Secretary
Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall speaks to attendees at the U.S. Space Force congressional birthday event in the Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, D.C., Dec 2, 2021. (Andy Morataya\/Air Force)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Since Kendall started raising these concerns at the Air Force Association\u2019s convention in September, \u201cAir Force Futures has been coordinating with these stakeholders to understand and communicate the warfighting value proposition of this technology,\u201d the service said. \u201cAt this stage, there is a very close alignment between the Department [of the Air Force] and broader DoD strategies pertaining to hypersonics.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kendall said hypersonic weapons such as boost glide vehicles and hypersonic cruise missiles can have a role in the military\u2019s inventory. And he said they could come from multiple sources, whether air-delivered or via surface launches from either the Army or Navy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Todd Harrison, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies\u2019 Aerospace Security Project, said Kendall\u2019s remarks are trying to steer the conversation back to a \u201cmore rational place\u201d and away from a \u201cknee-jerk\u201d impulse to try to match China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hypersonic weapons could be more useful to the U.S. in the early stages of a conflict, before an enemy\u2019s air defenses are neutralized, to strike time-sensitive targets such as command-and-control nodes or the air defenses themselves, Harrison said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The weapons could also be used as a penetrator to deliver munitions through concrete infrastructure or underground, hardened, stationary targets such as an Iranian nuclear facility, he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A defensive stance<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

But the U.S. should do more to build its defenses, Harrison said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYou don\u2019t fight hypersonic weapons with hypersonic weapons; you fight it with missile defense systems that are actually capable of tracking and targeting hypersonic weapons,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a Feb. 7 report, the CSIS think tank called for the U.S. to do more to strengthen its defensive abilities to detect, track and intercept hypersonic weapons. The report, \u201cComplex Air Defense: Countering the Hypersonic Missile Threat,\u201d argued fielding a defense will involve a multilayered approach, including new sensing and interceptor capabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most importantly, CSIS said, the nation will need a layer of space sensors that can spot, classify and track missiles of any kind and along any path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe can hit these things \u2026 if we have the tracking data,\u201d Harrison said. \u201cBut if we can\u2019t see the missile, or if we lose it for part of its flight, we\u2019re not going to be able to intercept it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On this front, the Space Force, Space Development Agency and Missile Defense Agency are working together to build a new missile warning and tracking architecture. This could include a mix of wide-field-of-view and medium-field-of-view satellites in low Earth orbit \u2014 under development by MDA \u2014 and the Space Force\u2019s work to modernize its missile warning and tracking satellites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The nation also needs a glide-phase interceptor, CSIS said. So far, the government has only invested modestly in developing hypersonic defenses, compared to the funding for a hypersonic strike capability. As it stands, the U.S. wouldn\u2019t have a glide-phase interceptor ready until the 2030s, CSIS said, but the process could be accelerated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hypersonics are a way to penetrate defenses, but they\u2019re not the only way.<\/p>Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall<\/cite><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The think tank also said hypersonic weapons\u2019 revolutionary capabilities to travel fast and turn in flight could be potential weaknesses. There are many ways the U.S. could throw a wrench in their gears, including using high-powered microwave systems, launching hit-to-kill interceptors, or throwing up a wall of debris or other particulate matter to disrupt or destroy hypersonic attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, Harrison believes it\u2019s worthwhile for the military to continue developing these weapons. Research on propulsion and guidance systems will be applicable in other areas, he said, plus having a small inventory of these weapons would be useful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
A Russian Air Force MiG-31K fighter carries a Kinzhal hypersonic cruise missile while parked at an air field for military drills on Feb. 19, 2022. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But thinking carefully about how the military intends to use them, and under what circumstances, will help as the technology moves from a \u201cscience fair project\u201d to an operational weapon, Harrison said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019ll make them more relevant if they\u2019re actually designed for the way we envision using them,\u201d he added. \u201cAnd not design the weapons to be the holy grail, which they\u2019re not going to be.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Testing failures<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

The Air Force\u2019s ARRW program \u2014 the boost glide air-to-ground hypersonic missile under development \u2014 hit snags last year, with tests in April, July and December all failing due to problems during the launch process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest report from the Pentagon\u2019s weapons tester, the first test failed when a problem with the missile\u2019s fin actuator was detected before it was released from the B-52 bomber carrying it. The second test failed when a problem happened after the missile was released from the B-52, preventing the booster motor from igniting, which led to a loss of the missile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The service is now trying to sort out what happened in the most recent incident in December. That review is expected to be completed this summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSo far, we haven\u2019t had one that fired effectively \u2026 that\u2019s left the rail and actually where the engine is fired,\u201d Venable said. \u201cWe don\u2019t know how far or how well this program is going because it\u2019s literally still hanging on the rail. So we need to do more tests, and we need to do those tests much more rapidly than what we\u2019re doing.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kendall said such troubles are expected for a program under development, and he wants the Air Force to learn from them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Asked if it\u2019s still possible to begin producing the ARRW this fiscal year, as the Air Force had hoped, the service said a decision on production \u201cremains event driven and will occur after operational utility is demonstrated and [the] production readiness review is completed.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Air Force in 2020 canceled its other major hypersonic program, the Hypersonic Conventional Strike Weapon, due to budget pressures. DARPA\u2019s Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept conducted a successful free-flight test in September 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Raytheon and Northrop Grumman are teaming to accelerate air-breathing hypersonic vehicle development. The companies will partner on DARPA’s Hypersonic Air-Breathing Weapon Concept. (Raytheon)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

At the meeting with top Pentagon officials in February<\/a>, industry executives listed concerns about advancing hypersonic technology, including supply chain constraints, acquisition barriers, budget instability and inaccessible test facilities. The executives said that without suitable testing facilities, the department will struggle to adopt a \u201ctest often, fail fast and learn\u201d approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kendall said testing failures haven\u2019t convinced him to step away from hypersonic work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI rethink all of our programs all the time,\u201d he said when asked whether he\u2019s considering altering the Air Force\u2019s approach. But hypersonic projects would likely continue \u201cin one form or another,\u201d he added<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI don\u2019t think there\u2019s any question we\u2019re going to want to keep moving the technology forward,\u201d Kendall said. \u201cBut the specific applications are going to be based on cost-effectiveness. \u2026 Hypersonics are not going to be cheap anytime soon, so I think we\u2019re more likely to have relatively small inventories of hypersonics than large ones.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A leading DoD hypersonics official, however, said at CSIS\u2019 Feb. 7 discussion that numbers will matter \u2014 and the U.S. must increase production rates, particularly on thermal protection systems for glide vehicles and on additive manufacturing for cruise missile engines, which take the longest to produce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEverything we\u2019re doing in terms of interceptors, the strike weapons, isn\u2019t going to make a difference unless we have sufficient quantities,\u201d said Gillian Bussey, director of the Joint Hypersonics Transition Office in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering. \u201cHaving a dozen hypersonic missiles \u2026 that isn\u2019t going to scare anyone.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf we can reduce the production time and increase the capacity and double, triple, quadruple those production numbers, I think that\u2019s how we really make a difference,\u201d Bussey added. \u201cThose investments, I think, need to start now in order for them to be there when we\u2019re ready with a program of record or to start cranking out real numbers.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Courtney Albon and Jen Judson contributed to this report.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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